TD Cowen Upgrades Constellation Brands to Buy Amid Growth Prospects
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy STZ?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Upgrade: TD Cowen upgraded Constellation Brands (STZ) from Neutral to Buy, with analyst Robert Moskow highlighting that the company's overly conservative FY27 beer guidance is likely to benefit from World Cup tailwinds and easing pressure on Hispanic consumers despite a weak overall market.
- Sales Growth Forecast: Moskow forecasts a 1.5% sales growth for Constellation Brands' beer business in FY27, compared to 0% growth for the category, indicating that the company's advantageous brand portfolio and market share visibility will allow it to outperform competitors.
- Price Target Assignment: TD Cowen set a price target of $190 for Constellation Brands, based on a 14.8X FY28E EPS valuation, which represents a 2.8X discount to its 5-year average forward P/E of 17.6X, suggesting a recovery in market confidence regarding the company's growth potential.
- Stock Price Reaction: Constellation Brands' shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading to $168.22, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future performance, particularly with expectations of beer volume recovery.
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Analyst Views on STZ
Wall Street analysts forecast STZ stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 164.500
Low
135.00
Averages
163.00
High
209.00
Current: 164.500
Low
135.00
Averages
163.00
High
209.00
About STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc. is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the United States, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy with brands, such as Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, Robert Mondavi Winery, Kim Crawford, The Prisoner Wine Company, High West, Casa Noble, and Mi CAMPO. Its segments include Beer, Wine and Spirits, and Corporate Operations and Other. In the Beer segment, its portfolio consists of high-end imported beer brands and ABAs. It has a perpetual brand license to produce its Mexican beer portfolio and to import, market, and sell such a portfolio in the United States. In the Wine and Spirits segment, it sells a portfolio that includes higher-end wine brands complemented by certain higher-end spirits brands. Its Corporate Operations and Other segment consists of costs of corporate development, corporate finance, corporate strategy, executive management, growth, human resources, internal audit, investor relations, IT, legal and public relations.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Sales Decline Context: In fiscal 2026, Constellation Brands experienced a 51% plunge in net sales for wine and spirits due to the divestiture of Svedka and several wine brands, while beer brands, which account for 91% of revenue, also saw a 10% overall sales drop, highlighting market challenges.
- Buffett's Contrarian Investment: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Constellation Brands during this downturn, indicating confidence in a contrarian play, as the historical roots of alcohol consumption may provide the company with rebound opportunities despite ongoing health trends.
- Profitability Recovery: In fiscal 2026, Constellation Brands' net income rose to nearly $1.7 billion, a significant recovery from an $81 million loss in the previous fiscal year, demonstrating the company's ability to remain profitable and sustain a $716 million dividend payout even in challenging conditions.
- Share Buyback and Valuation: The company completed a $924 million share buyback, reducing the number of outstanding shares and boosting stock value, while its P/E ratio of 17 is significantly lower than the S&P 500's 29, potentially attracting more investor interest in its stock.
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- Sales Decline Strategy: Despite a 51% drop in net sales for fiscal 2026 due to wine and spirits, Constellation Brands has shown resilience by focusing on its beer business, particularly Mexican brands like Modelo and Corona, which is expected to aid in future sales recovery.
- Dividend and Buyback Program: The company successfully completed a $924 million share buyback while maintaining a $4.12 per share dividend, demonstrating strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders, which further boosts investor confidence amid declining sales.
- Management Change and Market Response: New CEO Nicholas Fink took over on April 13, and the market has reacted positively to strategic adjustments under his leadership, with the stock steadily rising since November, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future.
- Improved Profitability: Despite sales challenges, net income for fiscal 2026 rose to nearly $1.7 billion, a significant turnaround from an $81 million loss the previous year, indicating the company's ability to remain profitable in adversity, enhancing its appeal to investors.
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- Earnings Highlights: Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, with stronger investment banking revenues and record equities trading, although fixed-income trading was a blemish; the stock remains high after a 16% rebound from mid-March lows, reflecting market interest in its future deal pipeline.
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- Rating Upgrade: TD Cowen upgraded Constellation Brands (STZ) from Neutral to Buy, with analyst Robert Moskow highlighting that the company's overly conservative FY27 beer guidance is likely to benefit from World Cup tailwinds and easing pressure on Hispanic consumers despite a weak overall market.
- Sales Growth Forecast: Moskow forecasts a 1.5% sales growth for Constellation Brands' beer business in FY27, compared to 0% growth for the category, indicating that the company's advantageous brand portfolio and market share visibility will allow it to outperform competitors.
- Price Target Assignment: TD Cowen set a price target of $190 for Constellation Brands, based on a 14.8X FY28E EPS valuation, which represents a 2.8X discount to its 5-year average forward P/E of 17.6X, suggesting a recovery in market confidence regarding the company's growth potential.
- Stock Price Reaction: Constellation Brands' shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading to $168.22, reflecting investor optimism about the company's future performance, particularly with expectations of beer volume recovery.
See More
- Market Rebound: On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.62%, reaching a one-month high, reflecting investor optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire, despite initial losses due to concerns, indicating cautious optimism about future developments.
- Weak Economic Data: Initial US jobless claims rose to 219,000, exceeding expectations of 210,000, indicating a weakening labor market, while personal income unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, which could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth, increasing market focus on Fed policy.
- Oil Price Volatility: Crude oil prices surged over 3% on Thursday due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which not only heightened inflation expectations but also could influence Fed monetary policy, leading to increased speculation about future rate hikes.
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