PHM

Housing Starts Increase: In July, housing starts rose by 5.2% month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.428 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.290 million.

Single-Family Housing Growth: Single-family housing starts increased by 2.8% month-over-month, reaching 939,000 from a revised June figure of 913,000.

Decline in Building Permits: Building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.354 million, down 2.8% from June and below the expected 1.390 million.

Rising Housing Completions: Privately owned housing completions rose 6.0% month-over-month to 1.415 million, although this figure is 13.5% lower than the same time last year.

Investor Sentiment: Anticipation of lower mortgage-loan rates has led to a rise in share prices for U.S. home builders, indicating positive investor sentiment in this sector.

Valuation Comparison: Home builders' stocks are currently well-priced on a forward price-to-earnings basis compared to the S&P 500, making them attractive for valuation screening.

Upcoming Events: The rise in home builder stocks coincides with the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak.

Interest Rate Outlook: Investors are keenly awaiting insights on interest-rate policy from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 16-17.

Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium: Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak, potentially influencing expectations for interest rate cuts amidst mixed economic signals.

Market Reactions and Risks: Recent gains in homebuilder stocks suggest optimism about rate cuts, but any indication from Powell that the Fed may not pursue aggressive cuts could lead to market volatility, especially given the current high market levels and low volatility.