Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market context, let me analyze whether you should buy or sell PHM stock:

Technical Analysis:

The stock is currently showing mixed signals:

• Price declined 3.76% to $105.87 on Friday, marking the second consecutive day of losses
• Currently trading below its 20-day moving average of $112.05
• RSI at 41.52 indicates neutral territory but trending downward
• MACD shows bearish momentum with -2.33 reading

Fundamental Strengths:

• Strong Q4 2024 performance:
  • Revenue of $4.92B beat estimates of $4.635B
  • Adjusted EPS of $3.50 exceeded consensus of $3.27
  • Gross margin of 27.5%
  • Healthy balance sheet with $1.6B cash

Recent Developments:

• Board approved $1.5B increase to share repurchase authorization
• Management targets 31,000 closings in 2025 with gross margins of 26.5%-27%
• Citadel Advisors established a new $130.2M position

Analyst Consensus:

Based on 11 analysts:

• Average price target: $143.27 (+33.36%)
• Range: $117.00 to $195.00
• Ratings: 8 Buy/Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell

Recommendation: HOLD

While PHM shows strong fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment, the current technical indicators suggest near-term weakness. Consider waiting for technical confirmation of trend reversal before establishing new positions. For existing holders, maintain positions but set stop-losses around $102.62 (Fibonacci S2 level).

Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, here's a detailed price prediction for PHM stock in 2025:

Current Market Position

Price Target Analysis The consensus from recent analyst reports indicates a bullish outlook for PHM in 2025:

• Evercore ISI maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $179.00
• UBS maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $151.00
• The average analyst price target is $132.17, representing a 16.16% upside from current levels

Fundamental Drivers According to the company's latest guidance:

• Expected to deliver 31,000 closings in 2025
• Projected gross margins between 26.5%-27%
• Average sales prices forecasted between $560,000-$570,000 per quarter
• Planning $5.5 billion in land acquisition and development

Technical Analysis Current support and resistance levels:

• R3: 117.07
• R2: 113.66
• R1: 111.55
• Pivot: 108.14
• S1: 104.72
• S2: 102.62
• S3: 99.20

Price Prediction 2025 Based on the comprehensive analysis, PHM stock is expected to reach $145-150 by end of 2025, driven by strong operational execution and strategic land investments. The company's disciplined approach to pricing and inventory management, combined with expected housing market recovery, supports this bullish outlook.

The S1 support level for PHM Stock is $102.33 ,The R1 resistant level for PHM Stock is $108.62.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of PHM Stock was $103.06.

The target price for PHM Stock according to analyst rating is 134.38, with the highest price target at 179.00 and the lowest at 100.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on PHM Stock overall.

The market cap of PHM is $20.9B.

Based on the provided data and analysis, I'll evaluate if PHM is overvalued in 5 concise sentences:

PHM is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 7.75, significantly below the market average, suggesting it's undervalued from an earnings perspective. The company's strong financial performance, with record revenues of $17.3 billion in 2024 and healthy gross margins of 28.9%, indicates robust operational efficiency. While housing market headwinds exist due to high mortgage rates and affordability concerns, PHM's strategic land investments and disciplined pricing approach have helped maintain profitability. The company's current price of $107.43 represents a 31.09% discount to analysts' consensus price target of $140.86, suggesting significant upside potential. Despite near-term housing market challenges, PHM's valuation metrics, strong operational execution, and analyst projections indicate the stock is undervalued rather than overvalued at current levels.

PulteGroup, Inc. is a homebuilder in the United States. The Company's segments include Homebuilding and Financial Services. The Homebuilding operations are engaged in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States and the construction of housing on such land. The Financial Services segment consist principally of mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations, through Pulte Mortgage LLC (Pulte Mortgage) and other subsidiaries. Pulte Mortgage arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for the benefit of its homebuyers. Its Homebuilding operations are aggregated into six segments: Northeast, Southeast, Florida, Midwest, Texas and West. The Company, through its brands, such as Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods, and American West offers variety of home designs with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups.

Based on the available data and recent market developments, here's my analysis for PHM's price prediction for 2030:

Technical Analysis & Current Market Position

Price Target Analysis for 2030

The stock is expected to reach approximately $165-175 by 2030, based on the following key factors:

1. Strong Fundamental Growth: PulteGroup has demonstrated robust operational performance, with management targeting 31,000 closings in 2025 and maintaining healthy gross margins of 26.5%-27%. This indicates strong execution capability and market positioning.

2. Analyst Confidence: Recent analyst ratings show strong bullish sentiment:

• Evercore ISI maintains a Buy rating with a $179 price target
• UBS maintains a Buy rating with a $151 price target

3. Strategic Positioning: The company's focus on land acquisition ($5.5 billion planned investment in 2025) and development strategy positions it well for long-term growth. Their shift toward more option-controlled lots (targeting 70%) provides flexibility and reduced risk.

Key Growth Drivers Supporting the Target:

1. Market Leadership: PulteGroup delivered 31,219 homes in 2024 with record revenues of $17.3 billion, demonstrating strong market position.

2. Financial Strength: Strong cash flows ($1.7 billion in 2024) and low debt levels (gross debt-to-capital ratio of 11.8%) provide flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.

3. Strategic Market Presence: The company's focus on inland communities, particularly in Florida, helps mitigate insurance cost pressures while capitalizing on favorable tax and employment conditions.

PHM has a total of 6382 employees.