Stock Price & Analysis

Sell TOL stock as bearish technicals, analyst downgrades, and housing market challenges outweigh its long-term value proposition.

TOL stock is expected to trade between $110 and $115 in 2025, driven by stabilizing housing demand and analyst price targets. The stock is currently oversold, with support at $110 and resistance at $115. Analysts predict moderate growth due to improving market conditions.

The S1 support level for TOL Stock is $103.65 ,The R1 resistant level for TOL Stock is $111.91.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-17, the price of TOL Stock was $105.03.

The target price for TOL Stock according to analyst rating is 147.46, with the highest price target at 191.00 and the lowest at 101.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on TOL Stock overall.

The market cap of TOL is $10.4B.

Analysis and Insights

Toll Brothers (TOL) appears overvalued based on several factors:

1. Valuation Metrics: TOL's EV/EBITDA ratio is elevated compared to industry peers, suggesting a premium valuation. The price-to-sales (PS) ratio is also higher than historical averages, indicating potential overvaluation relative to revenue generation.

2. Analyst Sentiment: While some analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" rating, others have lowered price targets, reflecting cautious sentiment. Barclays recently reduced its target from $135 to $115, citing demand concerns.

3. Market Trends: The housing market is transitioning to a buyer's market, with sellers resisting price adjustments. This shift could impact TOL's ability to maintain current pricing levels.

4. Insider Activity: Recent insider sales, including a director selling 420 shares, and mixed institutional investor movements signal potential concerns about near-term performance.

Given these factors, TOL's current valuation may not fully align with its fundamental outlook.

Toll Brothers, Inc. is a builder of luxury homes. The Company designs, builds, markets, sells and arranges financing for an array of luxury residential single-family detached home, attached home, master-planned, and urban low-, mid-, and high-rise communities. The Company operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology and landscaping subsidiaries. It also develops master-planned and golf course communities as well as operate, in certain regions, its own lumber distribution, house component assembly and manufacturing operations. The Company also caters to urban and suburban renters under the brand names Toll Brothers Apartment Living and Toll Brothers Campus Living. It designs, builds, markets, and sells high-density, high-rise urban luxury condominiums with third-party joint venture partners through Toll Brothers City Living (City Living). The Company operates in approximately 24 states and in the District of Columbia.

TOL stock is predicted to reach $160-$180 by 2030, driven by strong demand from affluent buyers and operational efficiency. Analysts expect long-term growth due to favorable demographics and limited housing supply.

TOL has a total of 4800 employees.