TOL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TOL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TOL sees a +1.59% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.79% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.39%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TOL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
3.33B
10.37%
22.20%
Gross Margin
26.42%
-0.26%
-3.37%
Operating Margin
18.33%
-0.92%
-0.22%
Net Margin
14.26%
-3.32%
3.86%
EPS
4.63
12.65%
28.61%
No Data Available
TOL Earnings Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. Corporation (TOL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Home Sales Performance: In the fourth quarter, we delivered 3,431 homes and generated $3.3 billion of home sales revenues, up 25% in units and 10% in dollars compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
Margin Performance Exceeds Guidance: Our adjusted gross margin of 27.9% beating our guidance by 40 basis points and our SG&A was 8.3% of home sales revenues or 30 basis points better than guidance.
Earnings Performance Improvement: Both top line and margin performance contributed to earnings of $475 million or $4.63 per diluted share, up 7% and 13% respectively compared to last year's fourth quarter.
Record Home Sales Revenue: For the full year, we generated a record $10.6 billion of home sales revenue over $2 billion of pre-tax income and over $1.5 billion of net income resulting in record earnings of $15.01 per diluted share and a return on beginning equity of 23.1%, third year in a row we have generated returns above 20%.
Home Delivery and Pricing: We delivered 10,813 homes at an average price of approximately $977,000 and with an adjusted gross margin of 28.4%.
Negative
Home Price Decline: The average price of homes delivered was down 11.3% to approximately $950,000.
Gross Margin Analysis: The average gross margin for the fourth quarter was 27.9%, which was 40 basis points better than guidance, but still reflects a decline in profitability compared to previous quarters.
Gross Margin Projection Decline: The adjusted gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 is projected to be 26.25% of home sales revenues, indicating a decrease from the previous year.
Home Sales Write-Off Increase: The company experienced a significant increase in write-offs related to home sales costs, totaling $24.1 million in the quarter compared to $8.3 million in the prior year period.
Cancellation Rate Insights: The cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog remains low at 2.5% in the fourth quarter, but this reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining order flow amidst market volatility.
TOL FAQs
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TOL Earning Call Sentiment
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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TOL.N
-3.19%Positive
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with record revenues and net income, increased home deliveries, and effective cost management. Although the average price of homes delivered decreased, it aligns with strategic goals. The Q&A section reveals stable mortgage rates and strong demand, with management expressing confidence in future performance. The share repurchase and dividend plans further support a positive sentiment. Overall, the combination of strong financials, strategic growth, and positive market outlook suggests a positive stock price movement in the short term.
