Earnings Guidance: Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has projected fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share between $1.65 and $1.69, an increase from $1.36 in Q4 2024, but a decline from $2.74 in Q3 2025 due to seasonal demand and operational challenges.
Operational Challenges: The anticipated decrease in profitability is attributed to lower steel prices, reduced shipment volumes, and production curtailments from maintenance outages, impacting the company's steel operations.
Future Outlook: Despite current challenges, Steel Dynamics reports steady order activity and a strong backlog, with expectations for improved volumes as interest rates may decline and infrastructure spending increases.
Stock Performance: STLD shares have risen 38.7% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 36%, while the company continues to invest in growth through stock repurchases and new facility developments.
Wall Street analysts forecast STLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STLD is 182.30 USD with a low forecast of 165.00 USD and a high forecast of 194.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast STLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STLD is 182.30 USD with a low forecast of 165.00 USD and a high forecast of 194.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 173.320
Low
165.00
Averages
182.30
High
194.00
Current: 173.320
Low
165.00
Averages
182.30
High
194.00
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$173 -> $194
2026-01-09
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$173 -> $194
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Steel Dynamics to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $194, up from $173. The firm adjusted ratings in North America steel as part of its 2026 outlook. It expects steel prices to remain elevated as 50% steel tariffs "remain firm." Morgan Stanley sees domestic mills continuing to take market share from imports on capacity increases despite a relatively muted demand outlook.
KeyBanc
Philip Gibbs
Overweight
maintain
$165 -> $190
2026-01-07
Reason
KeyBanc
Philip Gibbs
Price Target
$165 -> $190
2026-01-07
maintain
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc analyst Philip Gibbs raised the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $190 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is refreshing its 2026 outlook on U.S. carbon steel equities post recent due diligence and completion of its Q4 2025 proprietary Sheet on the Street survey. KeyBanc estimate changes for Q4 2025 on sheet mills are subdued amid trough lag pricing and outages. The firm's 2026 revisions are mixed-to-positive, supportive of a nicely improved year of profitability for the sector.
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Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$180 -> $190
2025-12-10
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$180 -> $190
2025-12-10
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $190 from $180 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst notes that U.S. steel prices have risen in recent weeks as imports continue to decline and inventory levels fall, arguing that risk to consensus forecasts is "to the upside."
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$165 -> $190
2025-12-05
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$165 -> $190
2025-12-05
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $190 from $165 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in the North America metals and mining group as part of its 2026 outlook.
About STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is an industrial metals solutions company. Its Steel Operations segment consists of its EAF steel mills, producing steel from ferrous scrap and scrap substitutes, utilizing continuous casting and automated rolling mills, and numerous steel coating, processing lines and warehouse operations. Its Metals Recycling Operations segment includes its OmniSource ferrous and nonferrous processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services primarily throughout the United States and in Central and Northern Mexico. Its Steel Fabrication Operations segment includes its New Millennium Building Systems’ joist and deck plants located throughout the United States, and in Northern Mexico. Its Aluminum Operations segment includes the recycled aluminum flat rolled products mill being constructed in Columbus, Mississippi, and two satellite recycled aluminum slab centers in the southwest United States and Central Mexico.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
