INR Overview

High NRIL Leases: Infinity Natural Resources has added high NRIL leases to enhance immediate production capabilities.

Production Timeline: The company aims to achieve production and EBITDA in 2026 while maintaining a creative approach in 2026 and 2027.

USD Overview: The US Dollar saw a slight recovery following Trump's announcement of a deal framework for Greenland and the decision to avoid tariffs, while the focus shifts to US economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for 2026.

INR Performance: The Indian Rupee is on a bearish trend against the US Dollar, with recent technical breakouts leading to record lows, despite a temporary bounce due to improved global risk sentiment after Trump's tariff threats were lifted.

Inflation and Trade Concerns: India's annual inflation rose to 1.33%, still below the RBI's target, and traders are cautious about potential tariff hikes from the US, particularly concerning India's trade relations with Iran.

Technical Analysis: The USDINR is approaching an all-time high, with bullish momentum observed on various timeframes; traders are watching for potential breakouts or reversals around key levels, with upcoming US Jobless Claims and Flash PMIs as market catalysts.

USD Strengthening: The US Dollar gained strength due to positive jobless claims data, leading traders to reduce dovish expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may continue if economic data remains strong.

INR Bearish Trend: The Indian Rupee is on a bearish trend against the US Dollar, with recent inflation data showing an increase, but still below the Reserve Bank of India's target, leading traders to anticipate no further rate cuts in the near future.

USDINR Technical Analysis - Daily: The USDINR pair broke above a key resistance level at 90.40, with bullish momentum expected to continue towards the upper channel bound around 92.00, indicating a buy-on-dips market.

USDINR Technical Analysis - Short-Term: On shorter timeframes, buyers are looking for opportunities to buy on dips around the 90.40 support level, while sellers are waiting for a price drop below this support for potential deeper pullbacks.

USD Performance: The US Dollar initially weakened due to soft core inflation data but later gained strength, influenced by renewed threats from Trump against Iran, which affected risk sentiment. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased slightly following the CPI report.

Indian Rupee Trends: The Indian Rupee is on a bearish trend against the US Dollar, with recent inflation data showing a rise to 1.33%. Traders are cautious about potential tariff hikes from the US, particularly concerning India's trade with Iran.

Technical Analysis - Daily Chart: The USDINR is nearing key resistance at 90.40, where sellers are expected to emerge. A breakout above this level could lead to bullish momentum towards 92.00, while failure to break could result in a drop back into the lower channel.

Upcoming Economic Data: Focus is on the potential US Supreme Court decision regarding Trump's tariffs, with additional data releases including November US Retail Sales and PPI reports, and US Jobless Claims figures expected soon.

RBI Intervention and INR Performance: The Indian Rupee saw a temporary boost due to suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but ongoing structural challenges and trade tensions, particularly threats of tariffs from the US, are expected to keep downward pressure on the currency.

US Dollar Fluctuations: The US dollar has been volatile as traders await the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, with recent softer economic data leading to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis of USDINR: Technical analysis indicates that the USDINR pair is facing resistance around the 90.40 level, with support expected at 89.70. Buyers may look for opportunities to enter around this support, while sellers will watch for a breakout to lower levels.

Upcoming Economic Data: Key economic indicators are set to be released, including the US ADP, ISM Services PMI, Job Openings, and Jobless Claims, culminating in the NFP report on Friday, which will significantly influence market sentiment.