Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, I'll provide a comprehensive analysis of CMC stock to determine if it's a buy or sell right now.

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing mixed technical signals:

• RSI-14 at 54.04 indicates neutral momentum
• MACD is slightly bullish with positive divergence (MACD: 0.18, Signal: -0.33)
• Stock is trading above its 20-day SMA (50.06) but below 200-day SMA (54.13)
• Currently trading at 51.66, positioned at 70% of the Bollinger Band range, suggesting moderate upside potential

Fundamental Analysis

Recent Q1 FY2025 results:

• Revenue: $1.91B (beat consensus of $1.873B)
• Core EBITDA: $210.7M (down from $313.7M YoY)
• Adjusted EPS: $0.78 (missed consensus of $0.81)
• Strong North American demand with 4.4% YoY increase in finished steel shipments

Business Segments Performance

• Steel Products: 40.85% of revenue
• Downstream products: 31.50%
• Raw material products: 16.78%
• Other segments: Combined 10.87%

Recent Analyst Views Morgan Stanley:

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: $56.00
• Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Average Price Target: $61.43 (18.9% upside)

Insider Activity Recent insider sales raise some concerns:

• Executive Chairman sold 35,704 shares at $57.88 on March 27
• Additional sales by executives in February at lower prices

Conclusion SELL Recommendation:

1. Technical indicators show neutral momentum with resistance ahead
2. Recent insider selling pattern
3. Management expects Q2 FY25 results to decline sequentially
4. Current market uncertainty and steel pricing pressure affecting margins

Based on the available data and recent market analysis, here's the price prediction for CMC stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $51.66 as of February 19, 2025, showing a bearish trend in the short term with a -2.62% decline in the latest trading session [Relevant Data]. Key technical levels include:

• Support levels: $48.26 (Fibonacci S1), $46.84 (Fibonacci S2)
• Resistance levels: $52.83 (Fibonacci R1), $54.25 (Fibonacci R2)

Price Target Analysis

According to recent analyst reports:

• Morgan Stanley maintains a Hold rating with a price target of $56.00
• Citi reiterates a Hold rating with a $60.00 price target
• The Street consensus shows a Moderate Buy rating with an average price target of $61.43, suggesting a 26.69% upside from current levels

Fundamental Drivers

The company's latest financial performance shows:

• Revenue of $7.93 billion for FY2024
• Net income of $485.5 million
• Strong balance sheet with current ratio of 3.94
• Healthy ROE of 11.53%

Based on technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and analyst consensus, CMC stock is expected to reach:

• Base case: $58-60 range by end of 2025 (approximately 15% upside)
• Bullish case: $61-63 range if market conditions remain favorable
• Bearish case: $46-48 range if economic conditions deteriorate

The most likely scenario points to a base case target of $59 by end of 2025, driven by the company's solid financial position and moderate growth prospects.

The S1 support level for CMC Stock is $49.11 ,The R1 resistant level for CMC Stock is $52.84.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of CMC Stock was $49.78.

The target price for CMC Stock according to analyst rating is 61.43, with the highest price target at 75.00 and the lowest at 54.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on CMC Stock overall.

The market cap of CMC is $5.7B.

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze whether CMC is overvalued through multiple perspectives:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $54.30, showing a bearish trend in the short term with RSI at 57.48 indicating neutral momentum. The price is trading above its 20-day moving average ($50.06) but below its 200-day moving average ($54.13), suggesting mixed signals.

Valuation Metrics

Current valuation metrics compared to historical levels:

• Forward P/E: 7.77x (vs 2022 P/E of 4.07x)
• EV/EBITDA: 5.13x (vs 2022 of 3.74x)
• P/S: 0.76x (vs 2022 of 0.56x)
• P/B: 1.59x (vs 2022 of 1.45x)

Market Assessment

Morgan Stanley recently maintained a Hold rating with a $56 price target, suggesting about 3% upside from current levels. The Street consensus shows a Moderate Buy rating with an average price target of $61.43, implying a 13% upside potential.

Conclusion

CMC is not overvalued based on:

1. Traditional valuation metrics remain reasonable compared to historical levels
2. Trading below consensus price targets
3. Strong technical support at current levels
4. Healthy balance sheet and dividend yield of 1.14%
5. Current price represents fair value given market conditions and growth prospects

Commercial Metals Company is engaged in offering products and technologies for the global construction sector through manufacturing network principally located in the United States and Central Europe. The Company’s solutions support construction across a variety of applications, including infrastructure, non-residential, residential, industrial, and energy generation and transmission. Its segments include North America and Europe. The North America segment provides a diverse offering of products and solutions to support the construction sector composed primarily of a vertically integrated network of recycling facilities, steel mills and fabrication operations. The Company’s 43 scrap metal recycling facilities, primarily located in the southeast and central United States process ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals. The Europe segment is composed primarily of a vertically integrated network of recycling facilities, an EAF mini mill and fabrication operations located in Poland.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the 2030 price prediction for CMC stock:

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is projected to reach $85-90 by 2030, driven by infrastructure spending momentum and manufacturing reshoring trends. The company's strong position in steel manufacturing and recent positive analyst coverage suggesting a $61.43 near-term price target indicates sustained growth potential. Morgan Stanley's current price target of $56 and Citi's $60 target demonstrate analysts' confidence in CMC's medium-term prospects.

CMC has a total of 13022 employees.