Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of UPST:

Technical Analysis

The stock closed at $83.11 on February 19, 2025, down 4.35% in regular trading hours. The stock has shown significant volatility with a daily range of $81.82-$88.69. The current price action suggests a short-term consolidation phase after a strong rally.

Recent Performance & Catalysts

• Q4 2024 Results:
  • Revenue: $219 million (+56% YoY)
  • Transaction volume up 68% to $2.1 billion
  • Nearly breakeven with just $2.7M net loss
  • Auto loan originations up 216% YoY
  • HELOC originations up 60% QoQ

Growth Outlook

Management has provided strong guidance for 2025:

• Revenue forecast of $1 billion (+57% YoY)
• Expecting to achieve GAAP breakeven by year-end
• Continued expansion in auto loans and HELOC markets

Valuation Metrics

Current metrics:

• P/S Ratio: 11.9x (33% premium to historical average of 8.9x)
• Forward P/S: 6.7x based on 2025 revenue guidance

Risk Factors

1. Interest Rate Sensitivity: Performance heavily dependent on interest rate environment
2. Competition: Traditional lenders and fintech companies
3. Regulatory Risk: Operating in highly regulated lending industry
4. High Short Interest: Over 30% of float shorted

Recommendation

SELL with a near-term price target of $70-75.

Rationale:

• While long-term growth prospects remain strong, current valuation appears stretched
• Recent rally (+155% over past year) may have priced in much of the good news
• Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions
• High short interest creates potential for volatility
• Wait for better entry point around support levels

Based on the provided search results and data, here's a comprehensive analysis of Upstart's (UPST) stock price prediction for 2025:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $83.11, showing significant volatility in recent months. The technical indicators suggest:

• RSI(14) at 62.36 indicates neutral momentum but approaching overbought territory
• MACD is positive at 4.793, suggesting bullish momentum
• Current price is trading above all major moving averages (SMA 5,10,20,60,200)

Fundamental Drivers

Key catalysts for 2025:

1. Interest Rate Environment

• Expected rate cuts in 2025 could boost loan demand
• Current high rates have been a major headwind for the business

2. Business Expansion

• HELOC product growing rapidly with 49% instant approval rate
• Auto loan and small-dollar loan segments showing strong growth
• Added 28 lending partners in 2024

3. Financial Projections

• Management projects $1 billion revenue for 2025 (+57% YoY)
• Expected to achieve GAAP breakeven by end of 2025
• Improving adjusted EBITDA margins

Price Targets for 2025

Based on multiple analyst forecasts:

• Bull Case: $295-327 (+255% upside)
• Base Case: $195-200 (+141% upside)
• Bear Case: $73-108 (-11% to +30%)

Key Risks

1. Valuation concerns - Currently trading at 125x FY2025 projected earnings
2. Macroeconomic uncertainty - Performance heavily dependent on interest rates
3. Competition in AI lending space
4. Potential funding constraints

Conclusion

The most likely scenario points to UPST reaching $195-200 by end of 2025, representing about 140% upside from current levels. This is supported by:

• Expected return to profitability
• Expanding product offerings
• Improving macro environment
• Strong revenue growth projections

However, investors should be aware of the high-risk nature of this investment given the stock's historical volatility and rich valuation multiples.

The S1 support level for UPST Stock is $69.18 ,The R1 resistant level for UPST Stock is $91.85.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of UPST Stock was $71.71.

The target price for UPST Stock according to analyst rating is 76.86, with the highest price target at 110.00 and the lowest at 12.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on UPST Stock overall.

The market cap of UPST is $6.7B.

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis of UPST's valuation:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing signs of being overvalued with bearish technical signals:

• RSI-14 at 62.36 indicates approaching overbought territory
• Trading significantly above key moving averages (SMA200: $46.23, SMA50: $70.32)
• Bollinger Band analysis shows price near upper band (96.20), suggesting extended price levels

Fundamental Concerns

• Revenue declined from $907M (2022) to $560M (2023), a 38% drop
• Net losses widened from -$108M (2022) to -$240M (2023)
• Negative net margins deteriorated from -11.98% to -42.85%
• Current P/S ratio of 11.9x is significantly above historical average of 8.9x

Recent Performance & Outlook

• Stock has surged 155% over the past year despite fundamental deterioration
• Management projects $1B revenue for 2025, but this assumes stable interest rates
• Morgan Stanley recently upgraded from Underweight to Equal-Weight with $58.79 price target, suggesting 28.61% downside

Based on these factors, UPST appears significantly overvalued at current levels, trading at premium multiples despite operational challenges and mounting losses.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a price prediction analysis for UPST stock by 2030:

UPST is projected to reach $250-300 by 2030, driven by three key factors: 1) The company's AI lending platform is showing strong growth potential with loan originations up 68% YoY and revenue projected to hit $1 billion in 2025, suggesting sustained long-term expansion into the $3 trillion addressable market. 2) Upstart's proprietary AI models are demonstrating superior loan approval rates (101% higher) with 38% lower APRs compared to traditional lenders, indicating technological competitive advantage. 3) The company's expansion into auto loans ($677B market) and HELOCs ($35T market) positions it for significant market share gains over the next 5 years.

UPST has a total of 1388 employees.