UPST Valuation

Upstart Holdings Inc

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64.460

-4.71(-6.809%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

UPST Relative Valuation

UPST's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, UPST is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 5.60 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of -193.88. The fair price of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) is between 24.14 to 118.51 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

24.14-118.51

Current Price：64.46

Fair

32.27

Trailing

Forward

30.03

EV/EBITDA

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a current EV/EBITDA of 30.03. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 97.16. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -305.26, Undervalued between -305.26 and -104.05, Fairly Valued between 298.36 and -104.05, Overvalued between 298.36 and 499.57, and Strongly Overvalued above 499.57. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 30.03 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

119.20

EV/EBIT

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a current EV/EBIT of 119.20. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is -68.01. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -841.70, Undervalued between -841.70 and -454.86, Fairly Valued between 318.83 and -454.86, Overvalued between 318.83 and 705.67, and Strongly Overvalued above 705.67. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 119.20 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

5.60

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a current PS of 5.60. The 5-year average PS is 6.78. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -3.45, Undervalued between -3.45 and 1.66, Fairly Valued between 11.90 and 1.66, Overvalued between 11.90 and 17.02, and Strongly Overvalued above 17.02. The current Forward PS of 5.60 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-89.33

P/OCF

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a current P/OCF of -89.33. The 5-year average P/OCF is 68.77. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -176.36, Undervalued between -176.36 and -53.79, Fairly Valued between 191.34 and -53.79, Overvalued between 191.34 and 313.91, and Strongly Overvalued above 313.91. The current Forward P/OCF of -89.33 falls within the Undervalued range.

-83.72

P/FCF

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) has a current P/FCF of -83.72. The 5-year average P/FCF is -23.23. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -353.73, Undervalued between -353.73 and -188.48, Fairly Valued between 142.02 and -188.48, Overvalued between 142.02 and 307.28, and Strongly Overvalued above 307.28. The current Forward P/FCF of -83.72 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 8.58. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 5.18 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 65.70% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 9.41, the current P/B ratio is about -8.81% higher. Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -0.98%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -11.74%, the current FCF yield is approximately -91.62% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -7.77% , the current FCF yield is about -87.34% lower.

8.58

P/B

Median3y

5.18

Median5y

9.41

-0.98

FCF Yield

Median3y

-11.74

Median5y

-7.77

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for UPST's competitors is 3.32, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Upstart Holdings Inc Corp (UPST) exhibits a P/S ratio of 5.60, which is 68.55% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 97.11%, this premium appears sustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Blue Owl Capital Corp

Firstcash Holdings Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of UPST increased by 61.11% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Revenue Growth from 130.53M to 257.29M.

The secondary factor is the P/E Change, contributed 69.22%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of UPST in the past 1 year is driven by Revenue Growth. Which is more sustainable.

97.11%

130.53M → 257.29M

Revenue Growth

-105.22%

-41.73 → 2.18

Margin Expansion

69.22%

-554.14 → -937.71

P/E Change

61.11%