UPST Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how UPST performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, UPST sees a +3.05% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +5.87% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.43%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
UPST Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
167.59M
14.20%
28.39%
Gross Margin
76.55%
2.27%
8.80%
Operating Margin
-23.69%
9.88%
-41.19%
Net Margin
-4.03%
-85.33%
-90.34%
EPS
-0.08
-83.33%
-87.10%
No Data Available
UPST Earnings Analysis
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock Corporation (UPST.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Lending Volume Surge: 1. Strong Lending Volume Growth: Upstart reported a 43% sequential growth in lending volume, marking its largest quarter for personal loan origination in two years.
Revenue Surge in Q3: 2. Significant Revenue Increase: Revenue from fees reached $168 million in Q3, up 28% sequentially and 8% ahead of guidance, contributing to a net revenue of $162 million, which is $12 million above guidance and up 20% year-on-year.
Contribution Margin Improvement: 3. Improved Contribution Margin: The contribution margin improved to 61% in Q3, up 3 percentage points sequentially and 4 percentage points above guidance, driven by higher conversion rates and improved automation.
Cash Position Improvement: 4. Cash Position Strengthened: Upstart ended Q3 with $445 million of unrestricted cash, an increase of almost $70 million from the prior quarter, enhancing its financial stability.
HELOC Product Success: 5. Successful Product Expansion: The home equity line of credit (HELOC) product saw originations more than double sequentially, with zero defaults reported on over 600 HELOCs originated to date.
Negative
Rising Operating Expenses: 1. Increased Operating Expenses: Operating expenses rose to $207 million in Q3, a 13% sequential increase, indicating rising costs that could pressure future profitability.
Negative Net Interest Income: 2. Negative Net Interest Income: Upstart reported a net interest income of negative $5 million, reflecting ongoing challenges in generating positive interest income despite a growing loan volume.
Financial Struggles Highlighted: 3. GAAP Net Loss: The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $7 million in Q3, which was significantly worse than anticipated, highlighting ongoing financial struggles.
Rising Variable Costs Impact Margins: 4. High Marketing and Variable Costs: Variable costs related to borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing increased by 20% sequentially, outpacing the growth of fee revenue, which could impact margins.
Decreasing Contribution Margin: 5. Declining Contribution Margin: The contribution margin is projected to decrease to approximately 59% in Q4, down from 61% in Q3, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability as the business scales.
UPST FAQs
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UPST Earning Call Sentiment
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
UPST.O
-9.39%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with revenue and loan volume exceeding guidance, positive adjusted EBITDA, and a significant partnership with Blue Owl. Despite some challenges in funding supply and consumer credit risks, the overall sentiment is positive due to model improvements and optimistic guidance for Q4. The market cap indicates a moderate reaction, leading to a prediction of a 2% to 8% stock price increase.
