Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of MAT stock:

Technical Analysis

• Stock is trading at $21.78, showing a slight decline of -0.05% in the latest session
• Currently in an upward trend channel with strong support at $20.84 and resistance at $22.00
• RSI at 71.33 indicates slightly overbought conditions
• MACD shows positive momentum with 0.96 value and 0.20 histogram

Fundamental Factors

• Trading at attractive valuations with P/E of 11.64, below industry average of 24.60
• Strong Q4 2024 results with sales growth of 2% and improved margins
• Management provided positive 2025 guidance:
  • Revenue growth of 2-3%
  • EPS guidance of $1.66-$1.72, above analyst estimates of $1.58

Recent Catalysts

• Benefiting from upcoming movie releases including Snow White and Minecraft
• $600 million share repurchase program announced for 2025
• Generation Alpha spending trends expected to benefit gaming and toy companies

Recommendation: SELL While fundamentals remain solid, the stock appears overbought after recent gains of over 14% following earnings. Consider taking profits at current levels and look to re-enter around support at $20.84.

Based on the recent earnings report and analyst updates, here's the price prediction for MAT stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis:

• Current price at $21.99 shows strong momentum after breaking above the $20 resistance level
• RSI at 71.33 indicates slightly overbought conditions but supported by strong volume
• MACD shows positive trend with bullish crossover (MACD: 0.96, Signal: 0.76)
• Price trading above all major moving averages (SMA 20: $20.00, SMA 60: $18.99)

Fundamental Drivers:

• Management provided strong 2025 guidance:
  • Net sales growth of 2-3% in constant currency
  • Gross margin target of 50.9%
  • EPS guidance of $1.66-$1.72 (above Street estimate of $1.59)
• Hot Wheels segment expected to show 4.5% growth while Barbie may decline 2%
• New entertainment partnerships with Disney for Snow White and other franchises
• $600 million share repurchase program announced for 2025

Price Target 2025: $24.50

• Primary scenario (60% probability): Stock reaches $24.50 by year-end, supported by:

  • Analyst consensus price target
  • Strong execution on cost savings program
  • Entertainment partnerships driving sales

• Bull case (25% probability): Stock reaches $28-29, driven by:

  • Jefferies upgrade with $28 target
  • UBS target of $29
  • Better than expected margin expansion

• Bear case (15% probability): Stock retreats to $20-21 due to:

  • Elevated channel inventory in Q1 2025
  • Potential tariff impacts
  • Continued pressure on Barbie sales

The S1 support level for MAT Stock is $21.07 ,The R1 resistant level for MAT Stock is $22.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of MAT Stock was $21.1.

The target price for MAT Stock according to analyst rating is 25.22, with the highest price target at 30.00 and the lowest at 21.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MAT Stock overall.

The market cap of MAT is $7.3B.

Based on recent earnings and market data, MAT appears fairly valued at current levels. The stock's P/E ratio has increased significantly from 16.29x in 2022 to 31.45x in 2023, suggesting some overvaluation compared to historical levels. However, strong Q4 2024 results with sales growth of 2% and expanded margins, plus management's optimistic 2025 guidance for 2-3% revenue growth and EPS of $1.66-1.72, support the current valuation. Technical indicators show the stock is overbought with RSI at 71.33 and trading near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential short-term pullback risk. The company's strategic focus on entertainment partnerships with upcoming movie releases like Snow White and Wicked provides additional growth catalysts.

Mattel, Inc. is a toy company and owner of catalogs of children's and family entertainment franchises in the world. The Company's segments include North America, International and American Girl. Its portfolio of owned and licensed brands and products are grouped into four brand categories: Dolls, which includes brands such as Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit (Universal) and Enchantimals; Infant, Toddler, and Preschool includes brands such as Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power Wheels, and Fireman Sam; Vehicles include brands such as Hot Wheels, including Hot Wheels Monster Trucks and Hot Wheels Mario Kart (Nintendo), Matchbox and CARS (Disney Pixar), and Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other include brands such as Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear (Disney Pixar), Jurassic World (NBCUniversal), world wrestling entertainment (WWE) and Star Wars (Disney). Its offerings include film and television content, gaming, music and live events.

Based on the available data and market analysis, Mattel (MAT) stock is projected to reach $35-38 by 2030, driven by its successful digital transformation and strategic cost savings program targeting $200 million by 2026. The company's strong AI-powered advertising tools and expanding digital gaming investments, coupled with consistent share repurchase programs ($600 million planned for 2025), suggest sustained growth momentum. Recent analyst upgrades, including Jefferies raising the target to $28, reflect growing market confidence in Mattel's business model transformation.

MAT has a total of 33000 employees.