Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis for CNQ:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently showing mixed technical signals:
- RSI-14 at 42.17 indicates neutral momentum
- MACD is slightly bearish with -0.28
- Stochastic K (60.71) and D (61.67) are in neutral territory
- Price is trading between Fibonacci support at $30.00 and resistance at $30.89
Recent Price Action & Volume
- Pre-market price: $30.02 with +0.17% change [Relevant Data]
- Recent bearish activity noted with high put volume (Put/Call Ratio: 2.31)
- Notable options activity focused on Jan-26 17.5 puts and 36.25 calls
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Metrics (2022 FY):
- Revenue: CAD 42.3B
- Net Income: CAD 10.9B
- Net Margin: 25.86%
- ROE: 29.12%
- Current Ratio: 0.82
- Debt to Equity: 34.01%
Recent Developments & Outlook
- Company has set a $4.2B budget for 2025
- Targeting 12% production growth over 2024 levels
- Production mix forecast: 47% light crude oil/NGLs/Synthetic Crude Oil, 26% heavy crude oil, 27% natural gas
- Expected production per share growth of 12-16% based on strip pricing
Analyst Sentiment
- Raymond James maintains Hold rating with C$51.00 price target
- Morgan Stanley has a Hold rating with C$58.00 target
- Consensus shows Moderate Buy with $37.82 price target (24.61% upside potential)
Recommendation
Given the current technical weakness, high put/call ratio, and mixed analyst sentiment, it would be prudent to SELL CNQ at current levels. The stock is showing bearish momentum in the short term, despite positive long-term growth prospects. Consider re-entering at lower support levels around $29.72 (Fibonacci S2).