Stock Price & Analysis

Analysis and Insights

To determine whether to buy or sell ADSK stock, we analyze both fundamental and technical factors.

Fundamental Analysis:

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has shown resilience with a 9.6% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, surpassing expectations. However, analysts maintain a cautious outlook, reflected in a consensus "Hold" rating. The company is transitioning its business model to improve margins and cash flow, which is a positive sign, but the involvement of Starboard Value adds uncertainty. Starboard aims to increase operating margins to 45% by fiscal 2028, which could lead to significant operational changes, including layoffs and restructuring. Autodesk's stock has underperformed its peer ANSYS (ANSS) over the past year, dropping 5.7% compared to ANSS's 4.7% gain.

Technical Analysis:

ADSK's stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. Despite a recent 1.1% rise after Q4 results, the stock remains in a downtrend. The relative strength index (RSI) suggests the stock is not oversold, leaving room for further decline.

Event Impact:

The proxy fight with Starboard Value introduces volatility. While potential margin improvements could boost the stock, risks like operational disruptions and employee morale issues are concerns. The broader market, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and trade tensions, adds to the uncertainty.

Conclusion:

Given the ongoing proxy fight, technical underperformance, and market conditions, ADSK stock is a sell candidate. Investors should consider waiting for clarity on the company's strategic direction and market reaction before re-entering.

The price prediction for ADSK stock in 2025 is approximately $340. This forecast is supported by analyst consensus, with multiple firms maintaining a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating, and is driven by strong Q3 results, billing growth, and positive catalysts such as activist involvement.

The S1 support level for ADSK Stock is $258.35 ,The R1 resistant level for ADSK Stock is $272.93.

As of the end of day on 2025-04-01, the price of ADSK Stock was $266.45.

The target price for ADSK Stock according to analyst rating is 344.21, with the highest price target at 400.00 and the lowest at 285.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on ADSK Stock overall.

The market cap of ADSK is $56.4B.

Analysis and Insights

Autodesk (ADSK) appears to be overvalued based on several key metrics and considerations:

1. High Valuation Metrics:

   • The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is elevated at 60.51 for 2024/Q4, indicating a premium valuation compared to industry peers.
   • The enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 46.17 for 2025/Q1 is also high, suggesting the market is pricing in significant future growth.

2. Revenue and Profitability:

   • While revenue and net income have shown growth, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 50.70 for 2025/Q2 reflects a rich valuation relative to its revenue generation.

3. Lack of Dividend Yield:

   • Autodesk does not currently offer a dividend, which may deter income-focused investors seeking returns in a high-valuation environment.

4. Analyst Sentiment:

   • Despite the high valuation, analysts maintain a positive outlook, with many rating the stock as "Buy" or "Strong Buy" and setting price targets in the $350-$385 range.

5. Market Conditions:

   • The broader market is currently overvalued, as indicated by multiple valuation models, which may contribute to ADSK's premium pricing.

Conclusion

While Autodesk demonstrates strong financial performance and positive analyst sentiment, its current valuation metrics suggest the stock is overvalued. Investors should exercise caution and consider whether the company's growth prospects justify the premium price.

Autodesk, Inc. is engaged in three-dimensional (3D) design, engineering and entertainment technology solutions, spanning architecture, engineering, construction, product design, manufacturing, media and entertainment. Its product offerings are focused on four primary product families: Architecture, Engineering and Construction, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, Manufacturing, and Media and Entertainment. Its products include AutoCAD Civil 3D; Building Connected; Architecture, Engineering and Construction Collection; Autodesk Build; Revit; AutoCAD; AutoCAD LT; Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) Solutions; Fusion 360; Product Design and Manufacturing Collection; Inventor; Vault; Media and Entertainment Collection; Maya; ShotGrid, and 3ds Max. Its product development and manufacturing software provides manufacturers in automotive, transportation, industrial machinery, consumer products, and building product industries with digital design, engineering, manufacturing, and production solutions.

ADSK stock is predicted to reach $400-$450 by 2030, driven by strong growth in cloud-based design software demand and improving operating margins due to activist investor Starboard Value's involvement. The stock's current price of $271.59 reflects its potential for long-term appreciation.

ADSK has a total of 14100 employees.