Should You Buy Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
179.750
1 Day change
-1.22%
52 Week Range
185.560
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term investment horizon and $50,000-$100,000 available. The company shows strong financial growth, positive technical trends, and favorable market sentiment, making it a solid choice for long-term investment.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators are bullish. The MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.637), the RSI is neutral at 71.69, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading near resistance levels (R1: 180.656, R2: 184.498) but has room for further growth.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
The low Put-Call Ratios indicate bullish sentiment among options traders. Implied volatility is at 39.46, with an IV percentile of 83.6, suggesting high demand for options.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions in STLD (527.06% increase in buying activity).
Steel Dynamics has been named one of the World's Most Admired Companies by Fortune for the ninth consecutive year.
The company is investing in aluminum operations, diversifying its product offerings.
Strong financial performance with YoY increases in revenue (11.21%), net income (27.02%), and EPS (33.17%).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analysts have made no upward revisions to EPS estimates in the last three months, with some downward adjustments.
The stock has a 20% chance of minor declines in the short term (-1.57% next day, -1.17% next week, -0.7% next month).
Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, citing muted demand outlook despite elevated steel prices.
Financial Performance
In Q3 2025, Steel Dynamics reported strong financial growth: Revenue increased by 11.21% YoY to $4.83 billion, Net Income rose by 27.02% YoY to $403.69 million, and EPS improved by 33.17% YoY to $2.73. Gross Margin also increased by 13.01% YoY to 15.55%.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analyst sentiment is mixed. Recent ratings include a downgrade by Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight but with a raised price target of $194. Other analysts (KeyBanc, Jefferies, JPMorgan, BofA) have raised price targets to $190, citing improved profitability and a rebound in demand in the U.S. and Europe. The consensus price target is around $190, indicating potential upside from the current pre-market price of $185.04.
Wall Street analysts forecast STLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STLD is 182.3 USD with a low forecast of 165 USD and a high forecast of 194 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast STLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STLD is 182.3 USD with a low forecast of 165 USD and a high forecast of 194 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 181.970
Low
165
Averages
182.3
High
194
Current: 181.970
Low
165
Averages
182.3
High
194
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$173 -> $194
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$173 -> $194
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Steel Dynamics to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $194, up from $173. The firm adjusted ratings in North America steel as part of its 2026 outlook. It expects steel prices to remain elevated as 50% steel tariffs "remain firm." Morgan Stanley sees domestic mills continuing to take market share from imports on capacity increases despite a relatively muted demand outlook.
KeyBanc
Philip Gibbs
Overweight
maintain
$165 -> $190
2026-01-07
Reason
KeyBanc
Philip Gibbs
Price Target
$165 -> $190
2026-01-07
maintain
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc analyst Philip Gibbs raised the firm's price target on Steel Dynamics to $190 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is refreshing its 2026 outlook on U.S. carbon steel equities post recent due diligence and completion of its Q4 2025 proprietary Sheet on the Street survey. KeyBanc estimate changes for Q4 2025 on sheet mills are subdued amid trough lag pricing and outages. The firm's 2026 revisions are mixed-to-positive, supportive of a nicely improved year of profitability for the sector.
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