Newmont Stock Surges Nearly 12% Amid Gold Price Fluctuations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 03 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NEM?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Stock Volatility: Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have shown significant fluctuations, with Newmont (NYSE: NEM) shares rising 11.7% since last Friday's close, indicating renewed investor interest in gold and reflecting a growing demand for safe-haven assets.
- Strong Cash Flow: Newmont achieved a record free cash flow of $7.3 billion in 2025, with nearly half returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, demonstrating the company's financial health and ability to attract more investor attention.
- Geopolitical Impact: Gold contracts have plunged over 10% since the onset of the Iran war, yet Newmont's underlying business remains robust, suggesting that as geopolitical tensions ease, investors are likely to refocus on gold and Newmont stock.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Newmont is set to report its first-quarter results on April 23, and while macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may sway stock prices, investors should concentrate on the earnings results to seize potential investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on NEM
Wall Street analysts forecast NEM stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 119.010
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
Current: 119.010
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
About NEM
Newmont Corporation is a gold company and a producer of copper, zinc, lead, and silver with operations and/or assets in the Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea regions. The Company's operations include Brucejack, Red Chris, Penasquito, Merian, Cerro Negro, Yanacocha, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia, Lihir, Ahafo, and NGM. The Brucejack operation includes four mining leases and six core mineral claims which cover 8,169 acres (3,306 hectares) and 337 mineral claims covering 298,795 acres (120,918 hectares). The Red Chris operation includes five mining leases which cover 12,703 acres and 199 mineral claims, encompassing an area of 164,903 acres (66,734 hectares). Penasquito includes 20 mining concessions for operations comprising 113,231 acres (45,823 hectares) and 60 mining concessions for exploration of 107,456 acres (43,486 hectares). The Merian operation includes one right of exploitation encompassing an area of 41,687 acres (16,870 hectares).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Earnings Expectations: Analysts predict that Newmont will report first-quarter EPS of $2.25, significantly up from $1.68 in the same quarter of 2025, indicating enhanced profitability in a high gold price environment, with expected net income exceeding $14.9 billion in 2026, showcasing robust earnings potential.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: In 2025, Newmont returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, raising its dividend by 4% this year to $0.26 per share, demonstrating commitment to shareholders and ample room for future increases.
- Focus on Efficient Mines: The company has divested smaller, less profitable projects to concentrate on Tier 1 mines, now managing 12 such operations primarily in stable jurisdictions across North America, Latin America, and Asia, thereby enhancing long-term profitability and market competitiveness.
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- Gold Price Volatility: Although gold prices have retreated from an all-time high of $5,626 per ounce to around $4,706, they remain elevated compared to last year, with an expected all-in sustaining cost of $1,680 per ounce in 2026, potentially leading to a net income of $14.9 billion if average realized prices reach $4,500.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: The company returned $3.4 billion of its free cash flow through share repurchases and dividends in 2025, raising its dividend by 4% to $0.26 per share, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining a low payout ratio that allows for future increases.
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- Fed Policy Expectations: Although the market discounts only a 1% chance of a 25 bp rate hike at the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the minutes from the March FOMC indicated heightened concerns among participants regarding upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, suggesting a more cautious approach to future monetary policy.
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- Crude Oil Price Plunge: The ceasefire news led to a more than 15% drop in crude oil prices to a 1.5-week low, alleviating inflation concerns and sparking a rally in global government bond markets, with the German 10-year Bund yield falling to a 3-week low, reflecting market expectations of a potential economic slowdown.
- US Treasury Yields Decline: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.228%, a 3-week low, as concerns over inflation eased, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets, while also supporting the upcoming $39 billion auction of 10-year notes.
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- Stock Price Recovery: Newmont's stock has risen approximately 2.3% over the past month and over 19% year-to-date, reflecting market recognition of its improved financial health, particularly after reducing debt and achieving a net cash position of $2.1 billion.
- Strong Earnings Expectations: Analysts predict that Newmont will report first-quarter EPS of $2.25, significantly up from $1.68 in the same quarter of 2025, indicating enhanced profitability in a high gold price environment, with expected net income exceeding $14.9 billion in 2026, showcasing robust earnings potential.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: In 2025, Newmont returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, raising its dividend by 4% this year to $0.26 per share, demonstrating commitment to shareholders and ample room for future increases.
- Focus on Efficient Mines: The company has divested smaller, less profitable projects to concentrate on Tier 1 mines, now managing 12 such operations primarily in stable jurisdictions across North America, Latin America, and Asia, thereby enhancing long-term profitability and market competitiveness.
See More
Newmont's Financial Health Significantly Improves Amid Gold Price Fluctuations
- Financial Improvement: Newmont has strengthened its financial health by paying down $3.4 billion in debt, ending the recent fiscal year with a net cash position of $2.1 billion, despite its shares dropping nearly 2% over the past month.
- Gold Price Volatility: Although gold prices have retreated from an all-time high of $5,626 per ounce to around $4,706, they remain elevated compared to last year, with an expected all-in sustaining cost of $1,680 per ounce in 2026, potentially leading to a net income of $14.9 billion if average realized prices reach $4,500.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: The company returned $3.4 billion of its free cash flow through share repurchases and dividends in 2025, raising its dividend by 4% to $0.26 per share, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining a low payout ratio that allows for future increases.
- Production Outlook: Newmont expects to produce 5.3 million ounces of gold in 2026, down from 5.7 million ounces in 2025, but still sufficient to cover nearly 9,000 football fields, indicating robust production capabilities in stable jurisdictions across North America, Latin America, and Asia.
See More
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- Export Decline: India's textile exports from April 2025 to February 2026 totaled $29.5 billion, a slight drop from $29.8 billion the previous year, indicating the fragility of recovery in an industry aiming for $100 billion in exports by 2030.
- Rising Costs: The Iran war has driven raw material and packaging costs up, with polyester prices increasing over 40% since the conflict began, complicating companies' ability to pass costs onto customers and impacting production and profitability.
- Weak Demand: Although tariff relief from the U.S. provided temporary respite, industry leaders warn that a prolonged war could dampen U.S. consumer demand, leading to declining sales and rising inventories, posing significant challenges for retailers.
- Production Cuts: Companies like Filatex have already reduced production by 25% and are awaiting demand recovery, with widespread concerns that failure to pass on costs could lead to larger-scale production cuts, further affecting employment and economic growth.
See More
Global Stock Markets Surge on Iran Ceasefire Agreement
- Market Sentiment Rebound: Global stock markets surged on Wednesday as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with the S&P 500 rising 2.51%, the Dow Jones up 2.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 2.90%, reflecting a positive market response to easing geopolitical tensions.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: The ceasefire news led to a more than 15% drop in crude oil prices to a 1.5-week low, alleviating inflation concerns and sparking a rally in global government bond markets, with the German 10-year Bund yield falling to a 3-week low, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the economy.
- Fed Policy Expectations: Although the market discounts only a 1% chance of a 25 bp rate hike at the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the minutes from the March FOMC indicated heightened concerns among participants regarding upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, suggesting a more cautious approach to future monetary policy.
- Strong Tech Stock Performance: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks saw significant gains on Wednesday, with Intel rising over 11%, driving the Nasdaq 100's increase, highlighting the tech sector's crucial role in the market recovery and further boosting investor confidence in technology stocks.
See More
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- Meta AI Model Launch: Meta Platforms unveiled its new AI model, Muse Spark, leading to a stock surge of over 9%, as this model will power the digital assistant in the Meta AI app and desktop website, with a rollout planned for Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger in the coming weeks, thereby enhancing user experience and platform attractiveness.
- Kimberly-Clark Stock Rebound: Kimberly-Clark's shares rebounded by 3% after a previous drop of over 4% due to a warehouse fire in California, with the company confirming no injuries, alleviating market concerns about supply chain disruptions and likely restoring investor confidence.
- Housing Market Stocks Rise: Stocks linked to the housing market saw gains as Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year yield dropping about 7 basis points to 4.273%, resulting in Zillow Group shares rising over 2% and Rocket Companies gaining 4%, indicating a growing optimism about housing demand.
- Travel Stocks Surge: Travel-related stocks surged as oil prices fell, with United Airlines and Carnival Corporation shares jumping over 10%, reflecting increased market confidence in consumer spending recovery and signaling a potential rebound in the travel industry.
See More
Global Stock Markets Surge on Iran Ceasefire Agreement
- Market Sentiment Rebounds: Global stock markets surged as the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with the S&P 500 rising 2.04%, the Dow Jones up 2.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 2.52%, indicating a renewed investor confidence in risk assets.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: The ceasefire news led to a more than 15% drop in crude oil prices to a 1.5-week low, alleviating inflation concerns and sparking a rally in global government bond markets, with the German 10-year Bund yield falling to a 3-week low, reflecting market expectations of a potential economic slowdown.
- US Treasury Yields Decline: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.228%, a 3-week low, as concerns over inflation eased, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets, while also supporting the upcoming $39 billion auction of 10-year notes.
- Strong Performance in Tech Stocks: Amid the positive market sentiment, technology stocks performed strongly, with Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet all rising over 3%, showcasing sustained investor confidence in the tech sector, which may drive future investment inflows.
See More
