Investment Outlook for Costco Wholesale
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy COST?
Source: Fool
- Consistent Performance: As of November 23, 2025, Costco's same-store sales grew by 3.1% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, demonstrating strong market resilience and ongoing revenue growth potential amid declining consumer spending.
- Clear Expansion Plans: The company plans to open 28 new warehouses in fiscal 2026, with management explicitly stating a goal of at least 30 net new openings per year, which will further drive future revenue growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 7.6% from fiscal 2025 to 2028.
- High Market Valuation: Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 52.9, which is 106% higher than the S&P 500 index and represents premiums of 18% and 138% over competitors Walmart and BJ's Wholesale, indicating strong market recognition of its stable financial performance.
- Investor Holding Recommendation: Although Costco's stock is currently 8% below its peak, it has risen 15% in 2026, and given the solid fundamentals, it makes sense to hold the stock without recommending new purchases or sales at this time.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COST is 1061 USD with a low forecast of 769.00 USD and a high forecast of 1205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1001.160
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 1001.160
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco Faces Challenges with Declining Membership Renewal Rates
- Declining Renewal Rates: Costco's renewal rates have dropped to 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% globally, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating that the increase in digital memberships is negatively impacting renewals, which could pressure company revenues.
- Membership Income Growth: The company reported membership fee income of $1.329 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, with the membership fee hike accounting for nearly half of this growth, demonstrating that despite declining renewal rates, the membership base continues to expand.
- Younger Membership Trend: Nearly half of new members are under 40, indicating Costco is attracting more younger, digitally-native consumers; however, this demographic tends to renew at lower rates, increasing future renewal challenges for the company.
- Response Strategy: Costco aims to improve renewal rates by enhancing engagement with digital members, although a slight decline is still anticipated over the next few quarters, yet the company remains optimistic about the initial success of its new communication strategies.
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- Performance Metrics: As of February 3, 2026, FSTA boasts a 1-year return of 8.34%, surpassing RSPS's 7.01%, indicating that FSTA has provided higher returns over the past year, potentially attracting yield-seeking investors.
- Risk Assessment: Over the past five years, FSTA's maximum drawdown stands at 16.57%, lower than RSPS's 18.61%, showcasing FSTA's relative stability during market fluctuations, which may appeal to risk-averse investors.
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- Return Performance Discrepancy: While RSPS offers a slightly higher dividend yield, FSTA has outperformed in one-year and five-year total returns, indicating that FSTA may provide better capital appreciation opportunities amid market fluctuations.
- Holdings Structure Comparison: FSTA holds 96 stocks, primarily concentrated in large consumer brands like Costco, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble, which account for nearly 37% of its assets, whereas RSPS evenly distributes its 36 holdings, ensuring a balanced risk and return profile.
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Costco Stock Rises 15% Despite High Valuation Concerns
- Stock Price Surge: Costco's stock has risen 15% since the beginning of the year despite a decline over the past 12 months, indicating market confidence in its future performance, although this increase is not driven by news.
- High Membership Renewal Rate: With a membership renewal rate around 92%, Costco demonstrates strong customer loyalty, which has historically attracted investors, including former shareholder Warren Buffett.
- Successful International Expansion: Costco has successfully expanded internationally, particularly in Europe and Asia, outperforming Walmart in these regions, thereby enlarging its addressable market and enhancing future growth potential.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite ongoing revenue and profit growth, Costco's P/E ratio has reached 52, significantly higher than its competitors, suggesting that the current stock price may be overvalued, leading investors to refrain from adding shares at this time.
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Costco's Stock Price Surge: Analyzing the Drivers
- Stock Price Trend: Costco (COST) has seen a 15% increase in stock price since the beginning of the year, despite a decline in value over the past 12 months, aligning with the overall recovery trend in the retail sector alongside Walmart and Target.
- Stable Membership Renewal: With a membership renewal rate around 92%, Costco demonstrates high customer loyalty; despite slow growth, its revenue rose by 6% year-over-year in Q1, with net income reaching $2 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year.
- Successful International Expansion: Costco has successfully expanded into international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where Walmart has struggled with brick-and-mortar stores, thus providing Costco with a significantly larger addressable market.
- Valuation Risks Emerge: Although Costco is a high-quality company, its P/E ratio has reached 52, far exceeding Walmart and Target, leading analysts to suggest that investors should refrain from adding shares at this valuation level, indicating that the market has fully priced in expectations for future growth.
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- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
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Costco Faces Challenges with Declining Membership Renewal Rates
- Declining Renewal Rates: Costco's renewal rates have dropped to 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% globally, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating that the increase in digital memberships is negatively impacting renewals, which could pressure company revenues.
- Membership Income Growth: The company reported membership fee income of $1.329 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, with the membership fee hike accounting for nearly half of this growth, demonstrating that despite declining renewal rates, the membership base continues to expand.
- Younger Membership Trend: Nearly half of new members are under 40, indicating Costco is attracting more younger, digitally-native consumers; however, this demographic tends to renew at lower rates, increasing future renewal challenges for the company.
- Response Strategy: Costco aims to improve renewal rates by enhancing engagement with digital members, although a slight decline is still anticipated over the next few quarters, yet the company remains optimistic about the initial success of its new communication strategies.
See More
Comparison of FSTA and RSPS Consumer Staples ETFs
- Cost Comparison: FSTA's expense ratio is just 0.08%, significantly lower than RSPS's 0.40%, meaning investors pay only $8 annually for every $10,000 invested in FSTA compared to $40 for RSPS, greatly reducing investment costs.
- Performance Metrics: As of February 3, 2026, FSTA boasts a 1-year return of 8.34%, surpassing RSPS's 7.01%, indicating that FSTA has provided higher returns over the past year, potentially attracting yield-seeking investors.
- Risk Assessment: Over the past five years, FSTA's maximum drawdown stands at 16.57%, lower than RSPS's 18.61%, showcasing FSTA's relative stability during market fluctuations, which may appeal to risk-averse investors.
- Holding Structure: FSTA holds 96 stocks primarily focused on consumer defensive names, while RSPS equally weights 36 stocks, leading to a strategy where FSTA may achieve higher returns when top companies perform well but also faces greater volatility risk.
See More
Comparison Analysis of FSTA and RSPS ETFs
- Expense Ratio Advantage: FSTA boasts a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to RSPS's 0.40%, meaning investors pay only $8 annually for every $10,000 invested in FSTA versus $40 for RSPS, enhancing FSTA's cost-effectiveness for long-term investors.
- Return Performance Discrepancy: While RSPS offers a slightly higher dividend yield, FSTA has outperformed in one-year and five-year total returns, indicating that FSTA may provide better capital appreciation opportunities amid market fluctuations.
- Holdings Structure Comparison: FSTA holds 96 stocks, primarily concentrated in large consumer brands like Costco, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble, which account for nearly 37% of its assets, whereas RSPS evenly distributes its 36 holdings, ensuring a balanced risk and return profile.
- Investment Strategy Choice: FSTA's concentrated holdings strategy may yield excess returns when large brands perform well, but it also poses greater risks during market downturns, while RSPS's equal-weight strategy helps mitigate single-stock volatility, making it suitable for risk-averse investors.
See More
Costco Stock Rises 15% Despite High Valuation Concerns
- Stock Price Surge: Costco's stock has risen 15% since the beginning of the year despite a decline over the past 12 months, indicating market confidence in its future performance, although this increase is not driven by news.
- High Membership Renewal Rate: With a membership renewal rate around 92%, Costco demonstrates strong customer loyalty, which has historically attracted investors, including former shareholder Warren Buffett.
- Successful International Expansion: Costco has successfully expanded internationally, particularly in Europe and Asia, outperforming Walmart in these regions, thereby enlarging its addressable market and enhancing future growth potential.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite ongoing revenue and profit growth, Costco's P/E ratio has reached 52, significantly higher than its competitors, suggesting that the current stock price may be overvalued, leading investors to refrain from adding shares at this time.
See More
Costco's Stock Price Surge: Analyzing the Drivers
- Stock Price Trend: Costco (COST) has seen a 15% increase in stock price since the beginning of the year, despite a decline in value over the past 12 months, aligning with the overall recovery trend in the retail sector alongside Walmart and Target.
- Stable Membership Renewal: With a membership renewal rate around 92%, Costco demonstrates high customer loyalty; despite slow growth, its revenue rose by 6% year-over-year in Q1, with net income reaching $2 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year.
- Successful International Expansion: Costco has successfully expanded into international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where Walmart has struggled with brick-and-mortar stores, thus providing Costco with a significantly larger addressable market.
- Valuation Risks Emerge: Although Costco is a high-quality company, its P/E ratio has reached 52, far exceeding Walmart and Target, leading analysts to suggest that investors should refrain from adding shares at this valuation level, indicating that the market has fully priced in expectations for future growth.
See More
Comparison of Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP vs IYK
- Cost Comparison: State Street's XLP offers a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to iShares' IYK at 0.38%, which means that for the same returns, XLP can provide higher net returns for long-term cost-conscious investors.
- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
See More
