Texas Roadhouse Reports GAAP EPS of $1.25, Falling Short by $0.04; Revenue of $1.44B Exceeds Expectations by $10M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TXRH?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Q3 Financial Performance: Texas Roadhouse reported a Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.25, missing expectations by $0.04, while revenue reached $1.44 billion, exceeding estimates by $10 million and reflecting a 13.4% year-over-year increase.
2025 Financial Outlook: For 2025, the company anticipates a 5.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales for the first five weeks of Q4, alongside a 1.7% menu price increase, with expectations of commodity inflation at 6% and an effective income tax rate of 14.5%.
2025 Expectations Reiterated: Management expects continued positive comparable restaurant sales growth, approximately 5% store week growth, 4% wage and labor inflation, and total capital expenditures around $400 million for 2025.
2026 Initial Projections: For 2026, Texas Roadhouse forecasts positive comparable restaurant sales growth, 5% to 6% store week growth, commodity inflation of 7%, wage and labor inflation of 3% to 4%, and an effective income tax rate of approximately 15%, with capital expenditures remaining at $400 million.
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Analyst Views on TXRH
Wall Street analysts forecast TXRH stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 172.500
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
Current: 172.500
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
About TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company operating predominantly in the casual dining segment. The Company maintains three restaurant concepts operating as Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers. Texas Roadhouse is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept offering an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. Bubba’s 33 is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept featuring scratch-made food for all with a little rock 'n' roll, ice-cold beer, and signature cocktails. Its menu features burgers, pizza, wings, sandwiches and others. Its Jaggers is a fast-casual restaurant concept offering burgers, hand-breaded chicken sandwiches and chicken tenders, made-to-order fresh salads, and hand-spun milkshakes. Jaggers offer drive-thru, carry-out, and dine-in service options. It operates approximately 780 restaurants system-wide in 49 states, one United States territory, and 10 foreign countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Texas Roadhouse Stock Enters Oversold Territory
- Oversold Indicator Analysis: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) has an RSI of 28.3, falling below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that recent selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, prompting investors to consider buying opportunities.
- Price Volatility Impact: On Monday, TXRH shares traded as low as $164.71, contrasting with the current $171.54 share price and an annualized dividend of $3 (yielding 1.75%), attracting dividend investors seeking higher yields.
- Importance of Dividend History: While dividends are not always predictable, analyzing TXRH's dividend history can assist investors in assessing the likelihood of the recent dividend's continuation, thereby influencing investment decisions.
- Market Sentiment Shift: TXRH's RSI is significantly lower than the average RSI of 40.7 for covered dividend stocks, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment, and investors should closely monitor future buying opportunities.
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Mid-Cap Stock Investment Opportunities Analysis
- Northern Trust Risks: Northern Trust (NTRS), with a market cap of $25.75 billion, has shown only 5.8% annual revenue growth over the past five years, indicating demand lagging behind financial peers, while its EPS growth of just 9.3% annually raises concerns about its future growth prospects.
- Domino's Growth Potential: Domino's (DPZ), valued at $13.73 billion, is rapidly rolling out new restaurants to capitalize on market opportunities, supported by strong same-store sales performance and an impressive 19% operating margin, while its free cash flow margin increased by 2.7 percentage points over the past year, providing more resources for growth initiatives.
- Texas Roadhouse Performance: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), with a market cap of $11.31 billion, has averaged 6.7% same-store sales growth over the past two years, reflecting strong customer demand for its Southern-style cuisine, and boasts an industry-leading 21% return on capital, showcasing management's effective investment strategy.
- Market Outlook: While Northern Trust faces challenges, the strong performance and expansion strategies of Domino's and Texas Roadhouse indicate that mid-cap stocks still hold appeal, prompting investors to monitor these companies for potential growth in the market.
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- Significant Profit Growth: Chili's average restaurant-level profit surged from $370,000 at the end of fiscal 2025 to $790,000, reflecting management's success in enhancing operational efficiency and profitability, even as the stock trades below market averages.
- Increased Customer Traffic: Same-store sales grew by 16.3% in fiscal 2025 and 8.6% in Q2 2026, indicating that Chili's pricing strategy and the 3 For Me menu effectively attracted value-seeking consumers, enhancing its competitive position in the casual dining sector.
- Ongoing Restaurant Refresh: Brinker refreshes about 10% of its restaurants annually, improving kitchens and dining areas, with plans to start increasing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027, which is expected to further drive future profitability growth.
- Robust Cash Flow: Despite heavy reinvestment in store redesigns, free cash flow grew at an average annual rate of 60% through Q2 2026, demonstrating a strong balance between expansion and profitability enhancement.
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Chili's Profit Doubles Amid Strong Market Performance
- Significant Profit Growth: Chili's average restaurant-level profit has surged from $370,000 to $790,000, reflecting a doubling of profitability due to three years of operational improvements, showcasing management's success in enhancing business efficiency.
- Increased Customer Traffic: By introducing a $10.99 full-service meal menu, Chili's attracted more customers, achieving a 16.3% increase in same-store visits in 2025, with continued growth of 8.6% in Q2 2026, indicating the effectiveness of its pricing strategy.
- Enhanced Market Competitiveness: Despite Brinker International's stock trading below peers like Darden and Texas Roadhouse, its restaurant-level margins have expanded from 11.9% to 19.1%, demonstrating the company's increasing competitiveness in the market.
- Future Expansion Plans: Brinker refreshes about 10% of its restaurants annually and plans to start increasing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027, with expectations that the return on new builds will exceed previous levels, further driving company growth.
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Steadfast Capital Exits Pool Corporation Position with $156 Million Sale
- Position Liquidation: On February 17, 2026, Steadfast Capital Management LP reported the complete sale of its Pool Corporation holdings, reducing its stake by 504,418 shares, with an estimated transaction value of approximately $156.40 million, indicating a loss of confidence in the stock.
- AUM Impact: This sale reduced Pool Corporation's representation in Steadfast's assets under management from 2.7% to zero, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance, which could negatively impact market sentiment towards the stock.
- Poor Stock Performance: As of March 4, 2026, Pool Corporation shares were priced at $220.31, down 36% year-over-year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 53 percentage points, highlighting a decline in its competitive position in the market.
- Investor Strategy Shift: Despite Steadfast's exit, analysts note that Pool's 2.3% dividend yield and the fact that 86% of its revenue comes from non-discretionary spending suggest that the stock remains attractive for long-term holders, potentially drawing in other investors at this discounted price.
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Many Restaurants Increase Revenue Through Price Hikes, But These 3 Focused on Customer Visits.
- Menu Pricing Importance: Most restaurants depend on menu pricing strategies to increase their sales.
- Exceptions Noted: There are notable exceptions among restaurants that do not follow this trend.
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Texas Roadhouse Stock Enters Oversold Territory
- Oversold Indicator Analysis: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) has an RSI of 28.3, falling below the oversold threshold of 30, indicating that recent selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, prompting investors to consider buying opportunities.
- Price Volatility Impact: On Monday, TXRH shares traded as low as $164.71, contrasting with the current $171.54 share price and an annualized dividend of $3 (yielding 1.75%), attracting dividend investors seeking higher yields.
- Importance of Dividend History: While dividends are not always predictable, analyzing TXRH's dividend history can assist investors in assessing the likelihood of the recent dividend's continuation, thereby influencing investment decisions.
- Market Sentiment Shift: TXRH's RSI is significantly lower than the average RSI of 40.7 for covered dividend stocks, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment, and investors should closely monitor future buying opportunities.
See More
Mid-Cap Stock Investment Opportunities Analysis
- Northern Trust Risks: Northern Trust (NTRS), with a market cap of $25.75 billion, has shown only 5.8% annual revenue growth over the past five years, indicating demand lagging behind financial peers, while its EPS growth of just 9.3% annually raises concerns about its future growth prospects.
- Domino's Growth Potential: Domino's (DPZ), valued at $13.73 billion, is rapidly rolling out new restaurants to capitalize on market opportunities, supported by strong same-store sales performance and an impressive 19% operating margin, while its free cash flow margin increased by 2.7 percentage points over the past year, providing more resources for growth initiatives.
- Texas Roadhouse Performance: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), with a market cap of $11.31 billion, has averaged 6.7% same-store sales growth over the past two years, reflecting strong customer demand for its Southern-style cuisine, and boasts an industry-leading 21% return on capital, showcasing management's effective investment strategy.
- Market Outlook: While Northern Trust faces challenges, the strong performance and expansion strategies of Domino's and Texas Roadhouse indicate that mid-cap stocks still hold appeal, prompting investors to monitor these companies for potential growth in the market.
See More
Chili's Profit Doubles, Yet Market Performance Remains Weak
- Significant Profit Growth: Chili's average restaurant-level profit surged from $370,000 at the end of fiscal 2025 to $790,000, reflecting management's success in enhancing operational efficiency and profitability, even as the stock trades below market averages.
- Increased Customer Traffic: Same-store sales grew by 16.3% in fiscal 2025 and 8.6% in Q2 2026, indicating that Chili's pricing strategy and the 3 For Me menu effectively attracted value-seeking consumers, enhancing its competitive position in the casual dining sector.
- Ongoing Restaurant Refresh: Brinker refreshes about 10% of its restaurants annually, improving kitchens and dining areas, with plans to start increasing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027, which is expected to further drive future profitability growth.
- Robust Cash Flow: Despite heavy reinvestment in store redesigns, free cash flow grew at an average annual rate of 60% through Q2 2026, demonstrating a strong balance between expansion and profitability enhancement.
See More
Chili's Profit Doubles Amid Strong Market Performance
- Significant Profit Growth: Chili's average restaurant-level profit has surged from $370,000 to $790,000, reflecting a doubling of profitability due to three years of operational improvements, showcasing management's success in enhancing business efficiency.
- Increased Customer Traffic: By introducing a $10.99 full-service meal menu, Chili's attracted more customers, achieving a 16.3% increase in same-store visits in 2025, with continued growth of 8.6% in Q2 2026, indicating the effectiveness of its pricing strategy.
- Enhanced Market Competitiveness: Despite Brinker International's stock trading below peers like Darden and Texas Roadhouse, its restaurant-level margins have expanded from 11.9% to 19.1%, demonstrating the company's increasing competitiveness in the market.
- Future Expansion Plans: Brinker refreshes about 10% of its restaurants annually and plans to start increasing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027, with expectations that the return on new builds will exceed previous levels, further driving company growth.
See More
Steadfast Capital Exits Pool Corporation Position with $156 Million Sale
- Position Liquidation: On February 17, 2026, Steadfast Capital Management LP reported the complete sale of its Pool Corporation holdings, reducing its stake by 504,418 shares, with an estimated transaction value of approximately $156.40 million, indicating a loss of confidence in the stock.
- AUM Impact: This sale reduced Pool Corporation's representation in Steadfast's assets under management from 2.7% to zero, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance, which could negatively impact market sentiment towards the stock.
- Poor Stock Performance: As of March 4, 2026, Pool Corporation shares were priced at $220.31, down 36% year-over-year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 53 percentage points, highlighting a decline in its competitive position in the market.
- Investor Strategy Shift: Despite Steadfast's exit, analysts note that Pool's 2.3% dividend yield and the fact that 86% of its revenue comes from non-discretionary spending suggest that the stock remains attractive for long-term holders, potentially drawing in other investors at this discounted price.
See More
Many Restaurants Increase Revenue Through Price Hikes, But These 3 Focused on Customer Visits.
- Menu Pricing Importance: Most restaurants depend on menu pricing strategies to increase their sales.
- Exceptions Noted: There are notable exceptions among restaurants that do not follow this trend.
See More
