MGY

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Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Line

Candle

YTD

High

21.540

Open

21.160

VWAP

21.35

Vol

2.09M

Mkt Cap

4.14B

Low

21.160

Amount

44.66M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

4.71

Total Shares

180.93M

4.39B

EV/OCF(TTM)

4.77

P/S(TTM)

3.07

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company, which acquires, develops, explores and produces oil, natural gas and natural gas liquid (NGL) reserves. The Company’s oil and natural gas properties are located primarily in the Karnes and Giddings areas in South Texas, where the Company targets the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. The Company’s assets consist of a total leasehold position of 789,719 gross (576,504 net) acres, including 72,503 gross (50,681 net) acres in the Karnes area and 717,216 gross (525,823 net) acres in the Giddings area. The Karnes area consists of oil and natural gas assets primarily located in Karnes, Dimmit, Gonzales, and Zavala Counties, Texas, in the core of the Eagle Ford Shale. The acreage comprising the Karnes area also includes the Austin Chalk formation overlying the Eagle Ford Shale. The Giddings Assets are located in Brazos, Burleson, Fayette, Grimes, Lee, Milam, Robertson and Washington Counties, Texas.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2025Q3

FY2025Q2

FY2025Q1

332.58M

-0.17%

0.478

-10.55%

321.27M

-4.59%

0.448

-12.56%

341.38M

+6.88%

0.532

-3.84%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Upward the revenue expectations for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by 1.12% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by -14.07%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+1.12%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-2.56%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Down

-14.07%

In Past 3 Month

10 Analyst Rating

16.14% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast MGY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGY is 24.75 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 30.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

5 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

16.14% Upside

Current: 21.310

Low

19.00

Averages

24.75

High

30.00

16.14% Upside

Current: 21.310

Low

19.00

Averages

24.75

High

30.00

UBS

Peyton Dorne

Strong Buy

Initiates

$26

2025-04-22

Reason

UBS

Peyton Dorne

Price Target

$26

2025-04-22

Initiates

Strong Buy

Reason

UBS analyst Peyton Dorne initiated coverage of Magnolia Oil & Gas with a Buy rating and $26 price target. The company's "strong" capital returns, capital efficiency, and high production per share growth drive a favorable outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says a premium multiple is warranted given Magnolia's "top-tier" balance sheet that supports capital returns amid lower oil prices. It sees a favorable entry point at current share levels.

Piper Sandler

Mark Lear

Hold

Maintains

$26 → $25

2025-04-22

Reason

Piper Sandler

Mark Lear

Price Target

$26 → $25

2025-04-22

Maintains

Hold

Reason

Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $25 from $26 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees a tricky set up into Q1 prints amid a trade-war and overall macro uncertainty paired with increased OPEC+ supply and a messy seasonal gas tape. While periods of volatility certainly provide entry opportunities in names with deep low-cost inventory and strong balance sheets, for a group where reversion and positioning have also had a big impact on shorter term performance, Piper has a bit of a stronger bias toward oil vs gas heading into Q1.

Susquehanna

Biju Perincheril

Buy

Maintains

$31 → $30

2025-04-22

Reason

Susquehanna

Biju Perincheril

Price Target

$31 → $30

2025-04-22

Maintains

Buy

Reason

Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino lowered the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $30 from $31 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm lowered its 2025 oil price assumption to around $68/bbl and 2026/long-term assumption to $67/bbl. Tariffs have lowered global demand estimates and pushed down oil prices to begin 2Q as recession fears climb. OPEC+ is also beginning to unwind its 2.2MM barrels of voluntary production cuts beginning in April, adding significant supply back into the market.

Citigroup

Paul Diamond

Strong Sell

Maintains

$22 → $19

2025-04-08

Reason

Citigroup

Paul Diamond

Price Target

$22 → $19

2025-04-08

Maintains

Strong Sell

Reason

Citi analyst Paul Diamond lowered the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $19 from $22 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm cites increased pricing volatility and an uncertain macroeconomic climate for the target cut.

JP Morgan

Zach Parham

Hold

Maintains

$28 → $24

2025-03-13

Reason

JP Morgan

Zach Parham

Price Target

$28 → $24

2025-03-13

Maintains

Hold

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Zach Parham lowered the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $24 from $28 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm have refreshed its exploration and production models, including its natural gas supply-demand analysis, after digesting 2025 producer capex budgets, updated winter degree day data, and stronger than expected liquified natural gas demand pull. The combination of record U.S. oil supply, the return of OPEC+ barrels in April, and global trade risk amid tariffs could result in a further decline in oil prices to force higher cost barrels out of the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Goldman Sachs

Umang Choudhary

Strong Buy

Hold

Downgrades

$27 → $26

2025-01-31

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Umang Choudhary

Price Target

$27 → $26

2025-01-31

Downgrades

Strong Buy

Hold

Reason

Goldman Sachs downgraded Magnolia Oil & Gas to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $26, down from $27. The firm views the catalyst pathway for Magnolia as largely played out. It estimates the company will maintain relatively flat production costs over the next two years as most of the larger, operational cost savings were captured with its cost savings initiative in early 2024. Without incremental catalysts for further efficiencies, share price outperformance is likely to remain more moderated relative to 2024, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY.N) is 11.13, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 9.77. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PE

9.77

Current PE

11.13

Overvalued PE

15.96

Undervalued PE

3.58

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

4.08

Current EV/EBITDA

4.43

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

4.81

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

3.35

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

2.73

Current PS

2.99

Overvalued PS

3.44

Undervalued PS

2.01