Buy now (but expect volatility into earnings): trend is bullish (MA stack), insiders are accumulating heavily, and Street targets cluster above the current price.
Best near-term catalyst is Q4 earnings on Feb 6; MGY also just raised the dividend 10%, reinforcing the shareholder-return story.
Key level to watch: price is near resistance (~26.23). A clean break above that improves the near-term upside setup; failure there can mean a pullback toward ~25.17/24.12 support.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.219 (above zero) but contracting, suggesting bullish momentum is slowing (not reversing yet).
RSI (6): 64.49 (neutral-to-warm); not overbought, but getting closer to short-term stretched.
Support/Resistance:
Pivot: 25.174 (important “line in the sand”)
Support: 24.124 (S1), then 23.475 (S2)
Resistance: 26.225 (R1), then 26.874 (R2)
Pattern-based forward drift (similar candlesticks): modest edge—~+1.12% next week expectation, flat-ish next month in the sample.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment:
Open interest P/C = 0.39: call-heavy OI (bullish positioning bias).
Volume P/C = 0.97: near 1 (mixed/neutral intraday flow).
Volatility:
IV (30d) 48.16 vs HV 29.17: options are pricing a large move (event premium into earnings).
IV percentile 78.4: elevated vs recent history; market expects an earnings-driven swing.
Liquidity/flow: today’s option volume 61 (92% of 30D avg), and today’s OI 1681 (122% vs avg) suggests active positioning into the event.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst (Feb 6): near-term event that can reprice shares quickly; BofA explicitly cited upside risk to production tied to strong Giddings results.
Dividend increase (+10%): reinforces durability of capital return framework and can support multiple expansion for income/quality energy buyers.
Insider activity: insiders are buying, with buying amount up 353.17% over the last month (strong internal confidence signal).
Analyst support: multiple recent Buy/Outperform stances with price targets mostly above current price.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Macro oil setup: several analysts cite oversupplied oil market / softer demand growth, which can pressure realizations and multiples for E&Ps.
Earnings execution risk: with elevated IV, even “okay” results can get sold if guidance/realizations/costs disappoint.
Near resistance: price is close to 26.23; failure to break can trigger a pullback toward the pivot/support zone.
Net income: $74.49M, -24.43% YoY (profitability down materially)
EPS: $0.40, -23.08% YoY
Gross margin: 45.55%, -11.09% YoY
Read-through: fundamentals softened YoY (likely commodity/realization driven), but the company is leaning into shareholder returns (dividend growth) and is being rewarded with improving sentiment from several firms.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: sentiment has improved—multiple upgrades/initiations to Buy/Outperform/Positive (BofA to Buy; BMO initiated Outperform; Clear Street top 2026 idea; Mizuho upgraded to Outperform).
Wall Street pros: high-return footprint, low cost/low leverage profile, consistent capital return framework.
Wall Street cons: oil oversupply / weaker oil pricing assumptions are the main pushback; some neutrals argue sector macro still “doesn’t feel great.”
Wall Street analysts forecast MGY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGY is 26.44 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 31 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MGY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGY is 26.44 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 31 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 26.210
Low
21
Averages
26.44
High
31
Current: 26.210
Low
21
Averages
26.44
High
31
Wells Fargo
Hanwen Chang
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
$21 -> $22
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Wells Fargo
Hanwen Chang
Price Target
$21 -> $22
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Hanwen Chang upgraded Magnolia Oil & Gas to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $22, up from $21. The company's "sustained execution" and capital framework that is well aligned with the current macro backdrop support a more balanced view of the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Magnolia's low reinvestment profile, modest production growth, and recurring shareholder returns underpin free cash flow stability.
Susquehanna
Positive
maintain
$30 -> $28
2026-01-26
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$30 -> $28
2026-01-26
maintain
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna lowered the firm's price target on Magnolia Oil & Gas to $28 from $30 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The oil market remains oversupplied following the unwinding of OPEC's voluntary production cuts, which will put downward pressure on pricing when paired with soft demand growth globally, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna dropped its 2026 West Texas Intermediate price assumption to $60 per barrel from $65. It remains bullish on long-term demand story for natural gas as well as growing power demand from data centers and electrification.
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