Marathon Petroleum Refining Margins Fall Drags Q1 Profit
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MPC?
Source: Benzinga
First Quarter Financial Results: Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported first-quarter revenues of $31.85 billion, exceeding expectations, while adjusted EPS loss was $(0.24), better than the consensus estimate of $(0.53). The refining segment saw a decline in adjusted EBITDA to $489 million due to lower market crack spreads.
Shareholder Returns and Outlook: The company returned approximately $1.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share. For the second quarter, it anticipates refining operating costs per barrel of $5.30 and refinery throughputs of 2,945 mbpd.
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Analyst Views on MPC
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 223.930
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 223.930
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream energy company. The Company’s segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast regions of the United States. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers domestically and internationally, to buyers on the spot market, and to independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products, principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Risk Assessment Impact: Hapag-Lloyd states that returning to normal shipping schedules will take weeks or even months, as hundreds of thousands of containers remain at ports, highlighting the industry's uncertainty about future transport arrangements and potential cost increases.
- Market Dynamics Shift: Analysts note that while oil prices have dropped from $110 to $97, they are expected to remain above pre-war levels due to supply disruptions, reflecting the market's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and its associated risks.
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- Futures vs. Spot Discrepancy: The spot price is nearly $30 higher than the June futures contract, which closed at $94.75 on Wednesday, suggesting that market concerns about short-term supply far exceed long-term expectations, potentially leading to increased price volatility.
- Middle East Production Constraints: Middle Eastern oil producers have shut down 13 million barrels per day due to a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating supply tightness in the market, with recovery unlikely in the short term.
- Production Recovery Timeline: Experts estimate that restoring production capacity could take up to five months, particularly as Kuwait's pre-war output was 2.6 million barrels per day, with the timeline for returning to pre-war levels contingent on the durability of the ceasefire agreement.
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- Supply Chain Challenges: While the ceasefire may lead to increased oil supply, analysts caution that prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels due to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, compounded by seasonal demand increases during summer, which could further pressure gas prices.
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