Should You Buy Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
172.010
1 Day change
0.13%
52 Week Range
202.290
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. While the company shows solid financial performance and positive long-term fundamentals, the lack of strong immediate catalysts, mixed analyst sentiment, and technical indicators suggest a neutral stance. Additionally, hedge fund selling and no recent significant insider or congressional trading trends further support a cautious approach.
Technical Analysis
The stock's MACD is positive (0.982), indicating bullish momentum, but it is contracting. RSI is neutral at 49.563, showing no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are converging, suggesting indecision in the market. The stock is trading near its support level (S1: 174.387), with resistance at R1: 181.591. Overall, the technical indicators are neutral.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with net income up 119.94% YoY and EPS up 140.64% YoY.
Gross margin increased by 31.98% YoY, indicating improved operational efficiency.
Potential long-term value in the refining sector as highlighted by analysts.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Hedge funds are selling, with a 178.21% increase in selling activity over the last quarter.
Mixed analyst ratings and price target revisions, with some firms lowering their targets due to bearish crude outlooks.
Lack of immediate positive sentiment or strong catalysts in the options market or news flow.
Financial Performance
In Q3 2025, Marathon Petroleum reported a revenue decline of -0.80% YoY to $34.88 billion. However, net income surged 119.94% YoY to $1.37 billion, and EPS increased by 140.64% YoY to 4.5. Gross margin improved significantly to 8.13, up 31.98% YoY, reflecting strong operational performance.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analyst sentiment is mixed. Recent price target changes include Scotiabank lowering its target to $174 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Piper Sandler lowering its target to $184 with a Neutral rating. Mizuho raised its target to $196 but remains Neutral, while Barclays increased its target to $202 with an Overweight rating. Analysts highlight challenges in the crude market but see potential in refining and midstream operations.
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPC is 201.5 USD with a low forecast of 184 USD and a high forecast of 213 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPC is 201.5 USD with a low forecast of 184 USD and a high forecast of 213 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 171.790
Low
184
Averages
201.5
High
213
Current: 171.790
Low
184
Averages
201.5
High
213
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Outperform
downgrade
$189 -> $174
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Price Target
$189 -> $174
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng lowered the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $174 from $189 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.
Piper Sandler
Neutral
downgrade
$231 -> $184
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$231 -> $184
2026-01-08
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $184 from $231 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says that entering 2026, while the chairs have shuffled around a bit, the song remains similar to twelve months ago - a bearish crude outlook that is likely to make it difficult for the sector to outperform the broader market. On the flip side, Piper sees the refining market as even better than 2025, driven by what it expects to be incrementally tighter S/D and crude differential tailwinds.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MPC
