MPC Valuation

Marathon Petroleum Corp

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164.940

-0.88(-0.531%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

MPC Relative Valuation

MPC's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, MPC is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 0.40 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 12.72. The fair price of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is between 142.97 to 185.20 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

142.97-185.20

Current Price：165.82

Fair

16.21

Trailing

Forward

7.87

EV/EBITDA

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has a current EV/EBITDA of 7.87. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 7.38. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.83, Undervalued between 0.83 and 4.10, Fairly Valued between 10.65 and 4.10, Overvalued between 10.65 and 13.92, and Strongly Overvalued above 13.92. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 7.87 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

11.85

EV/EBIT

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has a current EV/EBIT of 11.85. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 15.26. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -81.05, Undervalued between -81.05 and -32.89, Fairly Valued between 63.41 and -32.89, Overvalued between 63.41 and 111.56, and Strongly Overvalued above 111.56. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 11.85 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.40

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has a current PS of 0.40. The 5-year average PS is 0.38. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.25, Undervalued between 0.25 and 0.31, Fairly Valued between 0.44 and 0.31, Overvalued between 0.44 and 0.50, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.50. The current Forward PS of 0.40 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

6.17

P/OCF

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has a current P/OCF of 6.17. The 5-year average P/OCF is 5.62. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 2.27, Undervalued between 2.27 and 3.95, Fairly Valued between 7.30 and 3.95, Overvalued between 7.30 and 8.98, and Strongly Overvalued above 8.98. The current Forward P/OCF of 6.17 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

9.97

P/FCF

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has a current P/FCF of 9.97. The 5-year average P/FCF is 6.87. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -5.12, Undervalued between -5.12 and 0.88, Fairly Valued between 12.87 and 0.88, Overvalued between 12.87 and 18.86, and Strongly Overvalued above 18.86. The current Forward P/FCF of 9.97 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.04. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.42 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 25.81% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 2.05, the current P/B ratio is about 48.04% higher. Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 7.30%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 18.83%, the current FCF yield is approximately -61.24% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 13.32% , the current FCF yield is about -45.22% lower.

3.03

P/B

Median3y

2.42

Median5y

2.05

7.30

FCF Yield

Median3y

18.83

Median5y

13.32

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for MPC's competitors is 0.44, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Marathon Petroleum Corp Corp (MPC) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.40, which is -7.57% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -10.81%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

MPC.N

Marathon Petroleum Corp

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of MPC decreased by 6.88% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in P/E Change from 22.18 to 24.77.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -7.77%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of MPC in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-10.81%

37.99B → 33.88B

Revenue Growth

-7.77%

5.15 → 4.75

Margin Expansion

11.70%

22.18 → 24.77

P/E Change

-6.88%