MPC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MPC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MPC sees a -1.48% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.16% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.65%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MPC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
33.20B
-9.12%
-5.56%
Gross Margin
5.48%
-35.98%
-11.04%
Operating Margin
2.64%
-54.25%
-18.01%
Net Margin
2.36%
-54.09%
-18.34%
EPS
1.16
-70.03%
-37.97%
No Data Available
MPC Earnings Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp Corporation (MPC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Surprise Q4 2024: Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported an adjusted EPS of $0.77 for Q4 2024, significantly exceeding expectations of $0.02199.
Refining Segment Profitability: The refining and marketing segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA per barrel of $5.33 for the full year, reflecting strong operational performance and profitability.
Quarterly Distribution Increase: MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5%, resulting in an annualized cash distribution to MPC of $2.5 billion, marking the third consecutive year of distribution growth of 10% or greater.
Capital Return Yield: Full year net cash from operations reached $8.7 billion, enabling a capital return of $10.2 billion, which translates to a 23% capital return yield for shareholders.
Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns: Operating cash flow for Q4 was $1.7 billion, contributing to nearly $1.3 billion in share repurchases and $292 million in dividends during the quarter.
Negative
EBITDA Decline Analysis: Adjusted EBITDA decreased by approximately $400 million sequentially, primarily due to lower results in the refining and marketing segment.
Rising Refining Operating Costs: Refining operating costs increased to $5.26 per barrel in the fourth quarter, reflecting higher expenses despite a decrease in refining margins.
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA: Refining & marketing segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel dropped to $2.03 for the quarter, indicating a decline in profitability compared to previous periods.
Turnaround Expense Projections: Projected turnaround expenses for the first quarter are expected to be approximately $450 million, with full-year expenses anticipated to remain high at around $1.4 billion.
Crude Throughput Decline: Crude throughput volumes are projected to decline to just over 2.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter, representing a utilization rate of only 85%.
MPC FAQs
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MPC Earning Call Sentiment
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
MPC.N
-0.01%Positive
The earnings call highlights strong EPS performance above expectations, a significant share repurchase plan, and a positive outlook for demand growth. While there are some concerns about regulatory and competitive pressures, the company's operational efficiency and strategic investments in MPLX suggest resilience. The Q&A section reveals a generally positive sentiment among analysts, with management providing confident responses, although some areas lacked clarity. Overall, the positive financial outcomes and shareholder return initiatives outweigh the potential risks, indicating a likely positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
