MPC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MPC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MPC sees a -1.47% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.47% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.24%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MPC Key Earning Data
MPC Earnings Analysis
Positive
Refining Utilization Achievement: Refining utilization of 89%, reflecting the safe and successful completion of the second highest amount of planned turnarounds in history focused heavily on the Gulf Coast region.
Midstream EBITDA Growth: Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year-over-year, and MPLX announced over $1 billion of strategic acquisitions, advancing midstream natural gas and NGL growth strategies.
Refined Product Inventory Decline: U.S. refined product inventories have drawn for the ninth straight week and are below the five-year average, which should support demand as we move into the summer driving season.
Fuel Demand Trends: Steady year-over-year demand for gasoline and growth for diesel and jet fuel in domestic and export businesses.
Refinery Production Decline: Anticipation of around 800,000 barrels per day coming offline across several refineries in the U.S. and Europe this year, which could support stronger margins.
Infrastructure Investment for Competitiveness: Investment of approximately $700 million in infrastructure improvements at the Los Angeles refinery to improve reliability and energy efficiency, expected to strengthen competitiveness.
Capital Plan Progression: Progressing a $1.25 billion standalone capital plan for 2025 with 70% targeted on high-return projects, designed to create optionality and improve ability to capitalize on market volatility.
Financial Flexibility and Growth: MPLX's financial flexibility places it in an excellent position to continue to significantly grow its distributions, enhancing the value of its strategic relationship with MPC.
Shareholder Returns Overview: MPC returned over $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases in the first quarter.
Midstream Business Cash Flow: Operating cash flow, excluding changes in working capital, was $1 billion for the quarter, driven by the strength and growth of the midstream business.
Negative
Quarterly Net Loss: First quarter net loss of $0.24 per share, indicating financial struggles.
Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was approximately $2 billion, lower by $145 million sequentially due to decreased results in Refining and Marketing and renewable diesel segments.
Refinery Utilization Decline: Refinery utilization decreased from 97% in the fourth quarter of last year to 82% in the first quarter, reflecting operational challenges.
Utilization Challenges in Production: Renewable diesel facilities ran at only 70% utilization due to unplanned downtime, impacting production capabilities.
Regulatory Risks Impacting Margins: Changes in regulatory credits negatively affected margins in the renewable diesel segment, highlighting regulatory risks.
Working Capital Concerns: Working capital was a $1.1 billion use of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by inventory builds, indicating potential liquidity concerns.
Projected Turnaround Expenses: Turnaround expenses projected to be approximately $265 million in the second quarter, with full-year expenses expected to remain high at around $1.4 billion, indicating ongoing operational costs.
MPC FAQs
How does MPC typically perform around its earnings report dates?
MPC's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -1.47% change leading up to the report and a +0.47% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
MPC Earning Call Sentiment
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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