Keep a Close Eye on Tesla Model Y/3 Q1 Delivery Figures — Analyst Cautions as S/X Production Winds Down
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 27 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: stocktwits
Tesla's Sales and Market Performance: Tesla's Model Y and 3 deliveries are expected to show stability following the expiration of tax credits in the U.S., with about 40% of Tesla's sales coming from the U.S. market, where three-quarters took advantage of the expired tax credit.
Delivery Estimates: Analysts predict Tesla's Model 3/Y deliveries will be around 330,000 units, lower than previous estimates, while overall delivery volume for the first quarter is expected to reach 345,000 units, marking a 2% growth.
Future Developments: Tesla is focusing on the development of its robotaxi network and improving the performance of its self-driving software, with expectations of a significant increase in energy storage deployments in the upcoming quarter.
Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment around Tesla's stock remains bearish, but the stock has gained 33% over the past year, indicating a mixed outlook among investors despite recent challenges.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 352.420
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 352.420
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Capex Concerns: Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco highlighted that Tesla's capital expenditures are projected to reach $20.7 billion in 2026, aligning with the company's guidance but raising concerns as free cash flow turns negative, necessitating clearer evidence of unsupervised autonomy to support stock valuation.
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- Production Line Shift: The company will halt production of the Model S and Model X in California to repurpose those lines for Optimus manufacturing, a strategic shift that not only optimizes resource allocation but may also enhance overall production efficiency.
- Chinese Factory Potential: Tesla's China president stated that the Shanghai gigafactory is capable of supporting the mass production of Optimus, indicating the company's strong commitment to the Chinese market and potentially strengthening its competitive position in the global robotics market.
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- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 7% due to potential US-Iran ceasefire extensions, which will lower jet fuel costs for airlines, thereby boosting profitability and further supporting stock market gains.
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