Jet Fuel Costs Surge, Airline Stocks Decline: 5 Major Beneficiaries.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MPC?
Source: Barron's
- Rising Jet Fuel Prices: Asian jet fuel prices are increasing significantly due to supply concerns in the energy markets.
- Impact of U.S. Strikes: The surge in prices follows U.S. military strikes on Iran, which have heightened fears about supply disruptions.
- U.S. Refining Stocks Rally: The situation has contributed to a notable rally in U.S. refining stocks, reflecting investor reactions to the geopolitical tensions.
- Market Reactions: The overall energy market is experiencing volatility as a result of these developments, impacting both prices and stock performance.
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Analyst Views on MPC
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 260.510
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 260.510
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream energy company. The Company’s segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast regions of the United States. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers domestically and internationally, to buyers on the spot market, and to independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products, principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Marathon Petroleum is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on May 5 before the market opens, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.75 and revenue of $30.83 billion, reflecting a 3.2% year-over-year decline.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Marathon Petroleum has exceeded EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time, indicating strong financial performance and market confidence.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and eleven downward revisions, while revenue estimates experienced four upward and four downward revisions, highlighting market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- External Influencing Factors: Recent analyses suggest that Trump attributes the surge in U.S. gas prices to Iran, and despite the Middle East conflict pushing pump costs higher, Marathon Petroleum's earnings report may still benefit from recent favorable market conditions.
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- Market Performance: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.76% and the Nasdaq 100 index increased by 1.19%, reaching all-time highs, reflecting strong market optimism regarding ongoing investments in artificial intelligence, which are expected to continue driving stock prices higher.
- Chipmakers' Strong Earnings: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock price surge over 16% after raising its full-year sales forecast significantly due to robust data center spending, indicating a strong growth trajectory and reinforcing its competitive position in the semiconductor market.
- Crude Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell more than 5% to a two-week low as the US nears a peace agreement with Iran, which may help lower inflation expectations and improve profitability prospects for airlines and cruise operators amid declining fuel costs.
- Employment Data Impact: The April ADP employment change report indicated that US companies added 109,000 jobs, below the expected 120,000, yet the market remains optimistic about the Fed's monetary policy, which is likely to continue supporting stock market gains.
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- Market Position: Marathon currently holds the strongest market position within the system.
- Current Status: The company is actively engaged in a conference call to discuss its current operations and strategies.
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- Earnings Beat: Marathon Petroleum reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $1.65, surpassing expectations by $0.90, indicating a strong performance and enhanced profitability in the current market.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved revenues of $34.57 billion in Q1, an 8.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations by $3.74 billion, showcasing sustained growth in refining and marketing segments.
- Effective Cost Management: Refining operating costs were reported at $5.65 per barrel, with distribution costs at $1.625 billion and planned turnaround costs at $300 million, reflecting effective cost control measures.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Projected refinery throughput includes 2.795 million barrels per day of crude oil refined and 195,000 barrels of other charge and blendstocks, totaling 2.99 million barrels per day, indicating positive expectations for future market demand.
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- Significant Net Income Recovery: In Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported a net income of $511 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, marking a substantial turnaround from a net loss of $74 million in Q1 2025, reflecting the company's strong performance amid market recovery.
- Substantial Cash Flow Growth: The company generated $1.1 billion in cash from operating activities in Q1 2026, compared to a negative $64 million in Q1 2025, demonstrating successful capital deployment and operational efficiency, which enhances financial stability.
- Adjusted EBITDA Surge: Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 reached $2.763 billion, a 40% increase from $1.975 billion in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement in profitability within the refining and marketing segments, bolstering confidence for future investments.
- Expanded Shareholder Return Program: The company returned over $1 billion to shareholders in Q1 and approved an additional $5 billion share repurchase authorization, reflecting strong confidence in future cash flows and shareholder returns, further solidifying its position in the capital markets.
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- Event Overview: The Marathon Cars on Carefinery reports an upcoming planned flare event.
- Purpose of the Event: The flare event is intended for operational safety and maintenance.
- Community Impact: Residents are informed about the event to minimize concerns regarding potential disruptions.
- Safety Measures: The report emphasizes adherence to safety protocols during the flare event.
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