Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates by 75 Basis Points in 2026, Bullish Outlook for Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CME?
Source: Fool
- Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve anticipates a 75 basis point cut to the benchmark rate in 2026, with the market betting on this move to stimulate economic growth and drive stock prices higher, despite inflation risks.
- Strong Economic Growth: The U.S. GDP growth rate reached 4.3% in Q3, exceeding expectations, and is projected to maintain a 2.5% growth rate for 2026, providing robust support for the stock market.
- Analyst Optimism: Goldman Sachs analysts predict the S&P 500 will rise 12% by the end of 2025, reaching approximately 7,670 points, primarily driven by strong performance in the technology sector, reflecting confidence in the market's future.
- Risk Warnings: Despite the bullish sentiment, Goldman cautions that weaker-than-expected economic growth or the Fed's failure to cut rates as anticipated could pose significant risks to stock market gains, necessitating investor vigilance.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy CME?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on CME
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 302.550
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
Current: 302.550
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
About CME
CME Group Inc. provides a derivatives marketplace. The Company enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over the counter (OTC) markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data. It exchanges offer a range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agricultural products and metals. It offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and FX trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. Its products provide a means for hedging, speculation and asset allocation related to the risks associated with, among other things, interest rate sensitive instruments, and changes in the prices of agricultural, energy and metal commodities. It provides clearing and settlement services for a range of exchange-traded futures and options on futures contracts and OTC derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
CME Group Launches 24/7 Cryptocurrency Trading
- 24/7 Trading Launch: CME Group announced the launch of 24/7 trading for its cryptocurrency futures and options starting May 29, marking a significant expansion in the digital asset space that is expected to attract more investors.
- Significant Volume Growth: Year-to-date in 2026, the average daily volume for crypto futures and options surged by 46% year-over-year to 407,200 contracts, indicating strong market demand that could drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Rising Open Interest: The average daily open interest increased by 7% to 335,400 contracts, reflecting sustained investor interest and confidence in the cryptocurrency market, which further solidifies CME's market position.
- Active Futures Trading: CME Group experienced a 47% year-over-year rise in futures average daily volume to 403,900 contracts, demonstrating robust performance in the derivatives market that may enhance the company's market share and profitability.
See More
CME Group Moves Towards 24/7 Trading Model
- Trading Model Innovation: CME Group is set to launch 24/7 trading for crypto futures and options on CME Globex starting May 29, which is expected to further drive trading volume growth and meet market demand for round-the-clock trading.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Year-to-date, CME's average daily volume for crypto futures and options has increased by 46% year-over-year to 407,200 contracts, while average daily open interest rose by 7% to 335,400 contracts, indicating strong market interest in crypto assets.
- Market Trend: With retail investors trading overnight through alternative trading systems, CME's initiative signifies a shift towards
See More
Market Uncertainty Boosts Growth for CME and IBKR
- CME Group Performance: CME Group reported a record average daily trading volume for the fifth consecutive year, with a remarkable 114% year-over-year increase in its metals segment during Q4, indicating strong growth potential amid market uncertainty.
- Significant Retail Customer Growth: CME's retail customer base grew by 23% in 2025, surpassing 600,000 accounts, reflecting increased investor confidence in its platform and further driving trading activity.
- Interactive Brokers Platform Expansion: Interactive Brokers recently expanded trading access to Brazilian equities and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, allowing clients to fund accounts with stablecoins, enhancing its global trading capabilities.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Interactive Brokers' adjusted net revenues grew at a compound annual rate of 23% from Q4 2020 to Q4 2025, demonstrating the resilience and profitability of its business model in an increasingly uncertain market environment.
See More
Friday's PCE Inflation Report: What to Anticipate.
- Inflation Trends: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure is anticipated to indicate a faster rise in prices for December.
- Interest Rate Policy: This expected increase in inflation is leading to heightened caution among policymakers regarding potential interest rate cuts.
See More
CME Group Launches 24/7 Cryptocurrency Futures Trading
- 24/7 Trading Launch: CME Group will introduce 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading starting May 29, addressing the gap between continuous digital asset trading and regulated futures, thereby enhancing clients' risk management capabilities.
- Surge in Client Demand: Tim McCourt, CME's Global Head of Equities, FX, and Alternative Products, noted that client demand for crypto risk management reached an all-time high, with a record $3 trillion in notional volume across crypto derivatives in 2025, indicating robust market growth.
- Significant Volume Growth: Year-to-date, CME reported an average daily crypto volume of 407,200 contracts, up 46% year-over-year, and average daily open interest of 335,400 contracts, a 7% increase, reflecting sustained demand for its products.
- Enhanced Competitive Edge: The 24/7 trading structure eliminates timing mismatches for institutional traders between limited-hour CME futures and unregulated crypto exchanges, allowing CME to maintain competitiveness against rivals like Coinbase and Kraken in the market share battle.
See More
Kalshi Prediction Market Surpasses Wall Street Forecasts
- Real-Time Data Advantage: A joint study by Fed economists and researchers from Northwestern and Johns Hopkins reveals that Kalshi's real-time predictions on key economic data significantly outperform Bloomberg consensus forecasts, particularly in CPI, highlighting its potential in market forecasting.
- Perfect Prediction Record: Kalshi has maintained a perfect track record in rate predictions the day before each FOMC meeting since 2022, indicating its accuracy in rate expectations significantly surpasses that of fed funds futures, which could alter decision-making for market participants.
- Expanding Market Influence: As prediction markets become the preferred tool for traders and policymakers, Kalshi's growth potential is immense, especially through its partnership with Robinhood, granting access to over 27 million active accounts and further solidifying its market position.
- Competitive Pressure: The rise of Kalshi poses a threat to traditional sports betting companies like Flutter Entertainment, which has seen its stock drop over 44% this year, demonstrating the disruptive impact of prediction markets on existing business models and prompting the industry to reassess its strategic direction.
See More
CME Group Launches 24/7 Cryptocurrency Trading
- 24/7 Trading Launch: CME Group announced the launch of 24/7 trading for its cryptocurrency futures and options starting May 29, marking a significant expansion in the digital asset space that is expected to attract more investors.
- Significant Volume Growth: Year-to-date in 2026, the average daily volume for crypto futures and options surged by 46% year-over-year to 407,200 contracts, indicating strong market demand that could drive future revenue growth for the company.
- Rising Open Interest: The average daily open interest increased by 7% to 335,400 contracts, reflecting sustained investor interest and confidence in the cryptocurrency market, which further solidifies CME's market position.
- Active Futures Trading: CME Group experienced a 47% year-over-year rise in futures average daily volume to 403,900 contracts, demonstrating robust performance in the derivatives market that may enhance the company's market share and profitability.
See More
CME Group Moves Towards 24/7 Trading Model
- Trading Model Innovation: CME Group is set to launch 24/7 trading for crypto futures and options on CME Globex starting May 29, which is expected to further drive trading volume growth and meet market demand for round-the-clock trading.
- Surge in Trading Volume: Year-to-date, CME's average daily volume for crypto futures and options has increased by 46% year-over-year to 407,200 contracts, while average daily open interest rose by 7% to 335,400 contracts, indicating strong market interest in crypto assets.
- Market Trend: With retail investors trading overnight through alternative trading systems, CME's initiative signifies a shift towards
See More
Market Uncertainty Boosts Growth for CME and IBKR
- CME Group Performance: CME Group reported a record average daily trading volume for the fifth consecutive year, with a remarkable 114% year-over-year increase in its metals segment during Q4, indicating strong growth potential amid market uncertainty.
- Significant Retail Customer Growth: CME's retail customer base grew by 23% in 2025, surpassing 600,000 accounts, reflecting increased investor confidence in its platform and further driving trading activity.
- Interactive Brokers Platform Expansion: Interactive Brokers recently expanded trading access to Brazilian equities and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, allowing clients to fund accounts with stablecoins, enhancing its global trading capabilities.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Interactive Brokers' adjusted net revenues grew at a compound annual rate of 23% from Q4 2020 to Q4 2025, demonstrating the resilience and profitability of its business model in an increasingly uncertain market environment.
See More
Friday's PCE Inflation Report: What to Anticipate.
- Inflation Trends: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure is anticipated to indicate a faster rise in prices for December.
- Interest Rate Policy: This expected increase in inflation is leading to heightened caution among policymakers regarding potential interest rate cuts.
See More
CME Group Launches 24/7 Cryptocurrency Futures Trading
- 24/7 Trading Launch: CME Group will introduce 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading starting May 29, addressing the gap between continuous digital asset trading and regulated futures, thereby enhancing clients' risk management capabilities.
- Surge in Client Demand: Tim McCourt, CME's Global Head of Equities, FX, and Alternative Products, noted that client demand for crypto risk management reached an all-time high, with a record $3 trillion in notional volume across crypto derivatives in 2025, indicating robust market growth.
- Significant Volume Growth: Year-to-date, CME reported an average daily crypto volume of 407,200 contracts, up 46% year-over-year, and average daily open interest of 335,400 contracts, a 7% increase, reflecting sustained demand for its products.
- Enhanced Competitive Edge: The 24/7 trading structure eliminates timing mismatches for institutional traders between limited-hour CME futures and unregulated crypto exchanges, allowing CME to maintain competitiveness against rivals like Coinbase and Kraken in the market share battle.
See More
Kalshi Prediction Market Surpasses Wall Street Forecasts
- Real-Time Data Advantage: A joint study by Fed economists and researchers from Northwestern and Johns Hopkins reveals that Kalshi's real-time predictions on key economic data significantly outperform Bloomberg consensus forecasts, particularly in CPI, highlighting its potential in market forecasting.
- Perfect Prediction Record: Kalshi has maintained a perfect track record in rate predictions the day before each FOMC meeting since 2022, indicating its accuracy in rate expectations significantly surpasses that of fed funds futures, which could alter decision-making for market participants.
- Expanding Market Influence: As prediction markets become the preferred tool for traders and policymakers, Kalshi's growth potential is immense, especially through its partnership with Robinhood, granting access to over 27 million active accounts and further solidifying its market position.
- Competitive Pressure: The rise of Kalshi poses a threat to traditional sports betting companies like Flutter Entertainment, which has seen its stock drop over 44% this year, demonstrating the disruptive impact of prediction markets on existing business models and prompting the industry to reassess its strategic direction.
See More
