Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of Citigroup's valuation:
Technical Analysis
The stock is showing signs of being overvalued in the short term, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish trend:
- RSI-14 at 48.78 indicates neutral momentum but trending downward
- MACD shows bearish divergence with MACD (1.56) crossing below signal line (1.95)
- Stock is trading near the middle of its Bollinger Bands (BBM: 81.37), suggesting potential for further downside
Fundamental Valuation
Key metrics indicating overvaluation:
- P/E ratio increased significantly from 6.26 in Q1 2022 to 12.72 in Q4 2023
- EV/EBITDA doubled from 12.33 to 24.92 over the same period
- Net income declined from $13.7B in 2022 to $7.85B in 2023
- ROE dropped from 7.63% to 4.24% year-over-year
Recent Performance
The stock closed at $79.65 on February 21, 2025, showing:
- Regular market decline of -2.08%
- Trading volume of 14.9M shares
- Significant deterioration in profitability metrics
Analyst Sentiment
Recent analyst coverage shows mixed sentiment, with concerns about:
- Softening diversity commitments affecting corporate culture
- Changes in institutional investment strategies
- Declining credit card metrics in January 2025
Conclusion
Citigroup appears overvalued at current levels due to:
- Deteriorating fundamentals
- Technical weakness
- Rising valuation multiples despite declining performance
- Institutional selling pressure
- Operational challenges