American Express Reports Mixed Q4 Earnings, Plans Dividend Increase
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: seekingalpha
American Express shares fell 3.03% and hit a 20-day low amid mixed Q4 earnings results.
The company reported Q4 EPS of $3.53, missing the $3.55 consensus, while revenue reached $19 billion, exceeding estimates. Despite the earnings miss, American Express plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 16%, signaling confidence in future cash flows. However, the slowdown in new card growth and rising expenses may challenge investor sentiment.
The mixed earnings report and dividend increase plan reflect American Express's resilience in revenue generation, but the market's cautious reaction indicates potential challenges ahead.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXP is 373.63 USD with a low forecast of 280.00 USD and a high forecast of 425.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
13 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 354.620
Low
280.00
Averages
373.63
High
425.00
Current: 354.620
Low
280.00
Averages
373.63
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a globally integrated payments company with card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses. It offers products and services to a range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its segments include U.S. Consumer Services (USCS), Commercial Services (CS), International Card Services (ICS) and Global Merchant and Network Services (GMNS). USCS offers travel and lifestyle services as well as banking and non-card financing products. CS offers payment and expense management, banking and non-card financing products. ICS provides services to international customers, including travel and lifestyle services, and manages certain international joint ventures and its loyalty coalition business. GMNS operates a payments network that processes and settles card transactions, acquires merchants and provides multichannel marketing programs and capabilities, services and data analytics.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Successful Platinum Card Launch: Despite the annual fee increase from $695 to $895, the newly launched Platinum card has been a hit among consumers, with retention rates remaining stable and modest initial incentives for new cardholders, indicating robust demand for premium services.
- Significant Travel Booking Growth: The relaunch of the Platinum card, combined with the travel experience planning app, has driven a 30% year-over-year increase in travel bookings, directly reflecting the heightened engagement of cardholders as noted by CEO Stephen Squeri, further solidifying American Express's position in the luxury market.
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- Market Performance Comparison: In 2025, American Express stock rose nearly 25%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence.
- Policy Risk Impact: President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% spooked investors about potential damage to American Express, despite the lack of actual enforcement power, highlighting market sensitivity to policy changes.
- Strong Financial Performance: American Express reported a 10% year-over-year net revenue growth in its fourth-quarter earnings, nearing $19 billion, with a 13% increase in net income to nearly $2.5 billion, demonstrating robust growth in a competitive credit card market.
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- Rating Upgrade: American Express (AXP) has received an upgrade to an 'overweight' rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target set by analysts is $385.38, indicating market confidence in the company's future profitability, which could drive the stock price higher.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade in rating and price target may stimulate buying activity in the short term, enhancing American Express's market performance and strengthening its competitive position in the financial services sector.
- Investor Confidence: With the improved rating, investor confidence in American Express is expected to increase, potentially leading to inflows of capital that could further boost the stock price and enhance the company's market image.
See More
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- Outstanding Stock Performance: As of February 5, 2026, American Express's stock has surged 20% over the past six months, doubled in three years, and tripled in five years, showcasing its strong performance in the financial services sector, significantly outpacing rivals Visa and Mastercard.
- Successful Platinum Card Launch: Despite the annual fee increase from $695 to $895, the newly launched Platinum card has been a hit among consumers, with retention rates remaining stable and modest initial incentives for new cardholders, indicating robust demand for premium services.
- Significant Travel Booking Growth: The relaunch of the Platinum card, combined with the travel experience planning app, has driven a 30% year-over-year increase in travel bookings, directly reflecting the heightened engagement of cardholders as noted by CEO Stephen Squeri, further solidifying American Express's position in the luxury market.
- Flexible Strategic Planning: American Express operates without long-term financial goals, instead adapting through five core strategic pillars focusing on premium services, data-driven technology investments, international expansion, and refreshing existing products, ensuring strong returns for shareholders even in challenging economic conditions.
See More
Microsoft and American Express: Long-Term Investment Opportunities
- Microsoft Financial Performance: Microsoft boasts a market cap of $3.1 trillion, and despite a recent quarterly revenue growth of 17%, its Azure cloud business's 39% growth fell slightly short of expectations, indicating high market expectations for future growth; however, the long-term growth potential remains strong despite short-term stock price declines.
- Significant Profit Growth: In the last quarter, Microsoft achieved a profit of $38.5 billion, a substantial increase from $24.1 billion a year ago, demonstrating its robust profitability and ongoing investment capacity, which can support future acquisitions and business expansion.
- American Express Stability: American Express generated $72.2 billion in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, and despite economic challenges, card member spending remains strong, showcasing its stability and growth potential in the credit card market.
- Dividend Growth Outlook: American Express plans to increase its dividend by 16% this year, and with a low payout ratio of around 20%, there is ample room for future dividend increases, further enhancing its appeal as a long-term investment.
See More
American Express Faces Threat of Interest Rate Cap
- Market Performance Fluctuation: American Express stock rose nearly 25% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16% gain, but flipped to negative early in the new year due to Trump's unexpected demand for a 10% interest rate cap, indicating market sensitivity to potential risks.
- Policy Risk Analysis: Trump's interest rate cap proposal spooked investors, although it did not take effect in the short term and he lacks the authority to unilaterally impose such limits, suggesting that market reactions may be overblown and investors should focus on long-term fundamentals.
- Strong Financial Performance: American Express reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest Q4 earnings, with net revenue nearing $19 billion and net income hitting $2.5 billion, demonstrating the company's robust performance and customer loyalty in a competitive credit card market.
- Investment Opportunity Assessment: Despite facing short-term pressures, analysts believe that buying American Express stock at the current price is a wise move for finance sector investors, especially given its ongoing growth, which highlights the company's defensive advantages in the market.
See More
American Express Stock Outperforms Market Despite Recent Concerns
- Market Performance Comparison: In 2025, American Express stock rose nearly 25%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence.
- Policy Risk Impact: President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% spooked investors about potential damage to American Express, despite the lack of actual enforcement power, highlighting market sensitivity to policy changes.
- Strong Financial Performance: American Express reported a 10% year-over-year net revenue growth in its fourth-quarter earnings, nearing $19 billion, with a 13% increase in net income to nearly $2.5 billion, demonstrating robust growth in a competitive credit card market.
- Investment Opportunity: Despite facing policy uncertainties, analysts believe that buying American Express stock at the current price is one of the best moves for finance sector investors, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential.
See More
Berkshire Achieves Major Success with Japanese Trading Firms: 5 Stocks Valued at Nearly $40 Billion
- Berkshire Hathaway's Investment: Berkshire Hathaway's most successful investment since the onset of Covid-19 involves a group of five Japanese trading companies.
- Value Increase: The value of this investment has surged to nearly $40 billion following a stock rally in 2026.
See More
American Express Stock Rating Upgraded to Overweight
- Rating Upgrade: American Express (AXP) has received an upgrade to an 'overweight' rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target set by analysts is $385.38, indicating market confidence in the company's future profitability, which could drive the stock price higher.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade in rating and price target may stimulate buying activity in the short term, enhancing American Express's market performance and strengthening its competitive position in the financial services sector.
- Investor Confidence: With the improved rating, investor confidence in American Express is expected to increase, potentially leading to inflows of capital that could further boost the stock price and enhance the company's market image.
See More
