Potential Revival of IPO Market in 2026 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy APD?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rising IPO Market Interest: Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in 2026, investor interest in the potential revival of the IPO market is increasing, indicating strong demand and confidence in new public offerings.
- High-Probability IPO Candidates: According to Kalshi market data, Cerebras Systems is viewed as the most likely company to announce an IPO this year, with a 95% probability, reflecting investor recognition of its growth potential.
- Other Potential Candidates: Following closely are SpaceX (88%), Discord (78%), and Jersey Mike's (78%), which have garnered significant investor attention, showcasing strong interest in the technology and consumer sectors.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: For investors focused on IPOs, the Renaissance IPO ETF and Renaissance International IPO ETF may be worth analyzing further, providing diversified investment options to capture potential market opportunities.
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Analyst Views on APD
Wall Street analysts forecast APD stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 291.560
Low
255.00
Averages
290.13
High
345.00
Current: 291.560
Low
255.00
Averages
290.13
High
345.00
About APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is an industrial gases company. The Company is focused on serving energy, environmental, and emerging markets. Its base business provides essential industrial gases, related equipment and applications expertise to customers in dozens of industries, including refining, chemicals, metals, electronics, manufacturing, and food. The Company also develops, engineers, builds, owns and operates clean hydrogen projects supporting the transition to low- and zero-carbon energy in the heavy-duty transportation and industrial sectors. In addition, the Company provides turbomachinery, membrane systems and cryogenic containers globally. The Company has operations in approximately 50 countries. Its industries include aerospace, analytical labs & research/science, automotive, beverages, bioenergy, biotechnology, cement and lime, chemicals, electronics, food, glass and frit, hydrogen energy, medical, metals and materials processing, metals production, medical and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Tungsten Price Surge: Tungsten prices exceeded $3,000 last week, marking over a 50% increase for the month, indicating strong demand in the defense sector despite significant inventory shortages due to the Iran war.
- Rising Sulfuric Acid Prices: Sulfuric acid prices in Africa have risen at least 30% since the onset of the war, while China's sulfur prices increased by approximately 13% from early March, reflecting ongoing demand pressures that could lead to severe supply shocks.
- Helium Supply Tightness: Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, particularly after missile attacks on a key industrial center in Qatar, complicating the restoration of global helium supplies and exacerbating market tightness.
- Global Commodity Market Turmoil: The supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war present new challenges for global markets, prompting companies to diversify their supply sources while China ramps up stockpiling plans, highlighting concerns over future supply uncertainties.
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- Price Surge: Deutsche Bank analysts noted that helium prices have significantly increased since the conflict began, and while market observers remain optimistic about chipmakers' ability to secure helium, a prolonged conflict will force buyers to accelerate diversification of their supply chains.
- Opportunities for Russia: Amid the disruption of Qatari supplies, Russian helium producers may benefit, particularly as exports to China surged 60% year-on-year in 2025, potentially filling the supply gap in the Chinese market.
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- Energy Asset Damage: IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol reported that at least 40 energy assets across nine Middle Eastern countries have been 'severely or very severely' damaged since the onset of the Iran war, indicating that repairs will take considerable time and could lead to prolonged global energy supply disruptions.
- Supply Chain Disruption: The conflict has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with the IEA declaring this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, resulting in a roughly 20% reduction in liquefied natural gas supply since February 28.
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- Strategic Solutions: Birol emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the 'single most important' solution to the global energy crisis, particularly as Asian countries are at the forefront of the energy shock, and the IEA is prepared to follow up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to stabilize the market if necessary.
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- Revenue Structure: With half of APD's revenue derived from onsite operations, higher energy costs are expected to be passed on to customers, and improved utilization rates among North American chemical and refining customers are anticipated due to their relative cost advantages.
- Market Segmentation: The company's total revenue is composed of 20%-25% from chemicals, 20%-25% from refining, and 15%-20% from electronics, indicating its broad influence across multiple industries.
See More
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- Price Fluctuation Analysis: CGUS's 52-week low is $28.95 and high is $41.38, with the latest trade at $38.72, indicating cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance within this range.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with valuable insights for technical analysis, aiding in trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF shares outstanding highlights those experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market trends.
See More
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- Stable Earnings Outlook: In a context of slowing growth, rising inflation, and potential interest rate hikes, JPMorgan highlighted Air Products' stable earnings per share growth, suggesting that the company is likely to perform relatively well in the current market environment, showcasing its resilience.
- Helium Market Recovery: Although falling helium prices have pressured earnings recently, the shortage caused by the war in the Middle East has led to a rebound in helium prices, with JPMorgan analysts believing that Air Products will benefit from the renewal of long-term contracts, expecting the helium penalty to narrow in FY2026.
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See More
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- Tungsten Price Surge: Tungsten prices exceeded $3,000 last week, marking over a 50% increase for the month, indicating strong demand in the defense sector despite significant inventory shortages due to the Iran war.
- Rising Sulfuric Acid Prices: Sulfuric acid prices in Africa have risen at least 30% since the onset of the war, while China's sulfur prices increased by approximately 13% from early March, reflecting ongoing demand pressures that could lead to severe supply shocks.
- Helium Supply Tightness: Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, particularly after missile attacks on a key industrial center in Qatar, complicating the restoration of global helium supplies and exacerbating market tightness.
- Global Commodity Market Turmoil: The supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war present new challenges for global markets, prompting companies to diversify their supply sources while China ramps up stockpiling plans, highlighting concerns over future supply uncertainties.
See More
Helium Supply Crisis Impacting Semiconductor Industry
- Helium Supply Disruption: The ongoing Iran war has led to a shutdown of Qatar's helium production, resulting in a one-third reduction in global helium supply, shifting the market from oversupply to undersupply, which directly impacts semiconductor manufacturers' access to raw materials.
- Price Surge: Deutsche Bank analysts noted that helium prices have significantly increased since the conflict began, and while market observers remain optimistic about chipmakers' ability to secure helium, a prolonged conflict will force buyers to accelerate diversification of their supply chains.
- Opportunities for Russia: Amid the disruption of Qatari supplies, Russian helium producers may benefit, particularly as exports to China surged 60% year-on-year in 2025, potentially filling the supply gap in the Chinese market.
- Shifting Market Dynamics: Although Western chipmakers may be hesitant to accept Russian helium, its supply could be redirected to other applications, freeing up qualified helium for the chip sector, which may keep prices elevated.
See More
IEA Warns of Middle East Energy Crisis
- Energy Asset Damage: IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol reported that at least 40 energy assets across nine Middle Eastern countries have been 'severely or very severely' damaged since the onset of the Iran war, indicating that repairs will take considerable time and could lead to prolonged global energy supply disruptions.
- Supply Chain Disruption: The conflict has severely disrupted energy trade flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with the IEA declaring this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, resulting in a roughly 20% reduction in liquefied natural gas supply since February 28.
- Economic Impact Assessment: Birol noted that the fallout from the Iran war is equivalent to the combined effects of the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis, with interruptions affecting not only oil and gas but also critical economic sectors like petrochemicals, fertilizers, and helium, which could have serious consequences for the global economy.
- Strategic Solutions: Birol emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the 'single most important' solution to the global energy crisis, particularly as Asian countries are at the forefront of the energy shock, and the IEA is prepared to follow up its historic release of 400 million barrels of oil to stabilize the market if necessary.
See More
Air Products Shares Dip Despite Upgrade to Overweight by J.P. Morgan
- Rating Upgrade: J.P. Morgan upgraded Air Products (APD) from Neutral to Overweight with a price target increase from $280 to $310, reflecting a reversal in helium prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Qatari Ras Laffan energy complex.
- Economic Environment Impact: Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas expects APD to outperform in a challenging economic environment characterized by risks of deceleration, rising inflation, and increasing interest rates, due to the stability of its earnings growth.
- Revenue Structure: With half of APD's revenue derived from onsite operations, higher energy costs are expected to be passed on to customers, and improved utilization rates among North American chemical and refining customers are anticipated due to their relative cost advantages.
- Market Segmentation: The company's total revenue is composed of 20%-25% from chemicals, 20%-25% from refining, and 15%-20% from electronics, indicating its broad influence across multiple industries.
See More
CGUS Stock Price Analysis and ETF Dynamics
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: CGUS's 52-week low is $28.95 and high is $41.38, with the latest trade at $38.72, indicating cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance within this range.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with valuable insights for technical analysis, aiding in trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF shares outstanding highlights those experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market trends.
See More
JPMorgan Upgrades Air Products Amid Rising Oil Prices
- Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded Air Products' stock from neutral to overweight and raised its price target from $280 to $310, implying a 9% upside from Thursday's close, reflecting confidence in the company's performance amid economic uncertainty.
- Stable Earnings Outlook: In a context of slowing growth, rising inflation, and potential interest rate hikes, JPMorgan highlighted Air Products' stable earnings per share growth, suggesting that the company is likely to perform relatively well in the current market environment, showcasing its resilience.
- Helium Market Recovery: Although falling helium prices have pressured earnings recently, the shortage caused by the war in the Middle East has led to a rebound in helium prices, with JPMorgan analysts believing that Air Products will benefit from the renewal of long-term contracts, expecting the helium penalty to narrow in FY2026.
- Positive Market Reaction: Air Products' shares rose 0.5% in Friday's premarket trading and are up 15% year-to-date in 2026, indicating investor optimism about the company's future performance, further validating JPMorgan's outlook.
See More
