Oil Price Volatility and Market Expectations Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Increased Market Volatility: Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war, oil prices have experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude futures hovering around $99 per barrel, reflecting a nearly 36% increase compared to pre-war levels, indicating a risk premium in the market due to the conflict.
- Futures Market Backwardation: The oil market has entered a state of backwardation, where near-term futures contracts are priced higher than those for later delivery, suggesting that the market views the current price surge as temporary and anticipates a resolution to the conflict, reflecting cautious optimism.
- Impact of Infrastructure Damage: While the market expects future oil prices to decline, the destruction of energy infrastructure during the conflict will require time to repair, potentially leading to long-term supply constraints that could affect market pricing dynamics.
- Emergence of Risk Premium: Analysts note that despite bearish expectations for future oil prices, current volatility and risk are still priced in, with Brent crude futures for December delivery priced at approximately $79.70, representing a 17% decline from current prices but still about 10% higher than pre-conflict levels.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 211.150
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 211.150
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Impact of Surging Oil Prices: Global Brent crude prices have surged above $115 per barrel due to the ongoing Iran war, exacerbating inflation concerns and prompting investors to question whether the Fed might tighten monetary policy again despite signs of slowing growth.
- Historical Lessons: Goldman Sachs highlights the cautionary tale of the 1990 oil shock, where markets initially anticipated a hawkish Fed response but ultimately saw rate cuts as economic conditions worsened, suggesting that current market pricing may be misaligned with historical precedents.
- Political Factors at Play: President Trump indicated that an end to the conflict with Iran may be near, although he warned that if a peace deal is not reached soon, the U.S. would attack key Iranian energy infrastructure, which could further influence oil price movements.
See More
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- Global Supply Impact: The Wheatstone plant accounted for 2.4% of global LNG trade in February, shipping 11 cargoes—10 to Japan and 1 to Thailand—meaning its production halt will significantly disrupt the global supply chain.
- Climate Disaster Effects: The cyclone is estimated to have disrupted Australian LNG supply by over 30 million metric tons per year, and combined with the shocks from the Middle East conflict, over 25% of global LNG supply has been disrupted, exacerbating market tensions.
- Other Facility Recovery Status: While Wheatstone is affected, Chevron's Gorgon facility has returned to full production levels, and Woodside Energy is working to restore normal operations at its North West Shelf facility, indicating ongoing recovery efforts within the industry.
See More
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- ExxonMobil's Integration Advantage: Through vertical integration, ExxonMobil controls the entire supply chain from oil extraction to refining and distribution, ensuring that incremental revenue flows directly to the bottom line during oil price spikes, avoiding profit margin squeezes often faced by traditional exploration companies.
- Chevron's Low-Cost Position: Supported by its low-cost position in the Permian Basin and Guyana assets, Chevron maintains robust profits by leveraging specialized refineries to process its own oil, reducing reliance on expensive raw materials and curtailing volatility in commodity prices.
- Shareholder Value Creation: Both ExxonMobil and Chevron demonstrate the ability to create consistent shareholder value through dividends and buybacks, backed by strong operating cash flow, highlighting their competitive moats and strategic significance in navigating the challenges of the energy market.
See More
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- Oil Export Dependency: Kharg Island serves as a critical hub for Iran's oil industry, with approximately 90% of the country's crude exports passing through it and a loading capacity of around 7 million barrels per day; Trump's threats could have substantial implications for global oil prices, especially given the current upward trend.
- Military Action Consideration: The Trump administration is weighing the deployment of ground forces to seize Kharg Island, which would intensify military conflict with Iran and potentially lead to broader regional instability, affecting international relations.
- Iran's Tepid Response: Despite the attention Trump's remarks have garnered, Iran has yet to formally respond, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson labeling the U.S. 15-point plan as
See More
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- TSA Employee Pay Restoration: Trump signed an executive order ensuring Transportation Security Administration employees will receive pay after Congress failed to reach a deal to end the government shutdown, alleviating traveler frustrations caused by long security wait times.
- AI Drug Development Partnership: Eli Lilly struck a $2.75 billion deal with Insilico Medicine to bring AI-developed drugs to market, enhancing Lilly's market confidence and potentially accelerating the application of AI in the pharmaceutical industry.
See More
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- Production Rate Increase: The company is currently producing approximately 22,000 barrels per day at the Harmony platform, while the Heritage platform is expected to restart after final inspections with an output exceeding 30,000 barrels per day, significantly enhancing overall capacity.
- Government Support for Restart: The restart was backed by the U.S. government under the Defense Production Act to address supply concerns amid rising fuel prices, indicating strong policy support for the energy sector.
- Future Expansion Plans: Sable plans to bring the Hondo platform online by the end of the second quarter, further boosting its production capacity and expected to generate additional revenue streams for the company.
See More
