Occidental and Other Oil Stocks Decline: Implications of a G-7 Reserve Release.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy CVX?
Source: Barron's
- Oil Stocks Decline: Oil stocks experienced a decline early Tuesday as investors reacted to the ongoing situation in Iran.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing hope among investors for a quick resolution to the Iran war, which has been influencing crude oil prices.
- Crude Price Impact: The conflict has led to a significant increase in crude prices over the past week and a half.
- Market Reactions: The fluctuations in oil stocks reflect broader market concerns regarding geopolitical tensions and their economic implications.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 189.440
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 189.440
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Oil Export Resumption: Venezuela has resumed exports of diluted crude oil (DCO) for the first time in 15 months, with Chevron shipping 500,000 barrels to the U.S. Gulf Coast this month, a small volume but significant given the current geopolitical tensions.
- Shifting Market Demand: DCO is essential for specific refineries, and with the Iran conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Venezuela's oil exports have become a crucial alternative supply, ensuring stability in the U.S. market.
- Strategic Advantage Emerges: Venezuela's oil exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, mitigating current supply risks, with output expected to rise to 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels per day by year-end if sanctions are lifted, significantly impacting the global supply outlook.
- Policy Changes Drive Production: A shift in U.S. sanctions policy has allowed Chevron to operate under an indefinite license, and the new Hydrocarbon Law enhances foreign investment, boosting Venezuela's oil production capabilities.
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- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. benchmark WTI crude prices have fallen below $90 a barrel, despite being up over 50% year-to-date, indicating market optimism regarding improved U.S.-Iran relations, yet geopolitical risks continue to loom over oil prices.
- Tech Stock Rating Changes: Intuit was upgraded to buy from hold by Rothschild & Co Redburn, with its stock rising over 30% since late February, although it remains down 28.5% for the year, reflecting a recovery in market confidence in its software products.
- Cybersecurity Stock Bounce: Morgan Stanley upgraded CrowdStrike from hold to buy, with its stock up over 20% from last month's low, highlighting the positive impact of AI technology on the cybersecurity sector and indicating optimistic market expectations for future growth.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise's Positive Outlook: Despite memory cost pressures, the company raised its full-year earnings outlook, with reported quarterly revenues slightly below expectations but gross margins and adjusted EPS exceeding forecasts, demonstrating strong demand in the data center buildout.
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- Military Action Escalation: Defense Secretary Hegseth announced that Tuesday will mark the most intense day of strikes against Iran, with the U.S. observing the lowest number of missiles fired by Iran in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant decline in its military capabilities and potential further losses in the conflict.
- Control of Strategic Objectives: Hegseth emphasized that President Trump will dictate the pace of the war, deciding when specific objectives are achieved, which could influence the U.S.'s long-term military deployment and diplomatic strategy in the Middle East.
- Oil Price Volatility Impact: As the conflict escalates, oil prices surged past $110, prompting the G7 to consider releasing emergency reserves to mitigate economic pressures from the widening Middle East war, which could have profound implications for global energy markets, particularly for oil-importing nations.
- New Leadership Challenges: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, suggesting he cannot live in peace, which may exacerbate tensions in U.S.-Iran relations and affect future diplomatic negotiations.
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- Escalating Economic Crisis: Trump stated at a news conference in Florida that Cuba is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, lacking energy and funds, which could prompt the U.S. to adopt a more aggressive foreign policy approach.
- U.S. Pressure on Cuba: Since the January 3 military operation against Venezuelan President Maduro, the U.S. has cut off Cuba's access to Venezuelan oil and threatened tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, intensifying economic pressure on the island.
- Cuban Government's Response: Although the Cuban government denies negotiating with the U.S., it has acknowledged 'communications' between the two administrations, indicating a complex diplomatic situation under U.S. pressure.
- Impact of International Dynamics: Trump's comments, coupled with U.S. military actions in Iran and Venezuela, have heightened fears in Cuba, where experts note the island is grappling with a series of blackouts and fuel shortages, prompting the government to implement rationing measures to safeguard essential services.
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- Market Recovery: Following President Trump's indication that the U.S.-Iran war could soon end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 230 points, marking a more than 1,100-point rebound from session lows, reflecting a restoration of investor confidence.
- Oil Price Volatility: Despite the boost in market confidence from Trump's remarks, U.S. crude oil prices closed lower after surging above $100 per barrel, indicating ongoing concerns about the oil supply disruption.
- New Investment Opportunities: Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square, has filed to list on the New York Stock Exchange, with $2.8 billion in secured commitments expected, enhancing public confidence in its investment platform.
- Economic Outlook Warning: Rising oil prices and a weak jobs report have led economists to warn of potential stagflation in the U.S., with prediction markets showing recession odds rising above 34%, reflecting growing concerns about future economic growth.
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- Year-to-Date Performance: As of March 9, 2026, the US Oil Fund (USO) has surged 64% year-to-date, contrasting sharply with its 39% return over the past decade, highlighting a significant disparity between short-term volatility and long-term returns.
- Price Fluctuation Drivers: Driven by geopolitical supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf, WTI crude oil prices have risen from $57.21 on January 2 to $71.13 as of March 2, influencing USO's price movements, yet its long-term performance is hampered by the contango phenomenon in the futures market.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: The sentiment score for USO on Reddit stands at 85, primarily fueled by narratives around supply disruptions, although some traders express skepticism about USO's performance, indicating a complex market perception of the fund.
- Cost Structure Impact: USO carries a 0.6% annual expense ratio, but in contango environments, the monthly roll losses can further diminish returns on top of management fees, exposing investors to potential risks of return reversals.
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