Dan Ives Anticipates a 'Remarkable 2026' for Tesla and Nvidia, Notes Bears Are Still Observing from 'The Sidelines'
Dan Ives' Bullish Outlook: Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities, remains optimistic about the U.S. technology sector, predicting a "magical year" for Tesla and highlighting Nvidia as a leader in the early stages of the AI revolution.
Tesla and Nvidia as Key Players: Ives identifies Tesla and Nvidia as the top "physical AI plays," with Tesla's focus on autonomy and robotics expected to be pivotal by 2026, while Nvidia continues to lead the foundational infrastructure of the tech boom.
Continued Tech Rally: Despite recent tech market gains, Ives believes the bull run is far from over, projecting the Nasdaq could reach between 25,000 and 30,000 in the next 12 to 24 months, with growth extending to emerging software companies.
Opportunities Amid Volatility: Acknowledging potential market volatility due to geopolitical tensions, Ives views these moments as opportunities to invest in leading companies in the AI sector.
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- AI Investment Surge: Alphabet plans to invest between $175 billion and $185 billion in AI by 2026, a significant increase from $91 billion in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to AI and expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Revenue Diversification: While digital ads still account for 73% of revenue, Google Cloud's contribution has risen from 12% to 15%, indicating substantial progress in diversifying revenue sources and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Waymo's Growth Potential: As a leading autonomous driving platform, Waymo has provided 20 million rides to date, and as it expands into new markets, it is expected to become a critical revenue source for Alphabet, further boosting overall profitability.
- Valuation Remains Attractive: Despite recent stock price gains, Alphabet's P/E ratio of 30 closely aligns with the S&P 500 average, suggesting it still holds potential to attract investors and likely achieve market-beating returns over the next five years.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced a capital expenditure plan of $175 billion to $185 billion for 2026, while Amazon plans to spend about $200 billion, highlighting fierce competition in AI, although this will pressure their cash flows.
- Uncertain Cash Flow Outlook: Amazon's free cash flow is expected to approach zero or turn negative by 2026, while Alphabet may maintain positive cash flow, despite tapping the debt market for $32 billion to fund its data center expansion.
- Growing Backlogs: Alphabet's backlog reached $240 billion, up 55% sequentially, while Amazon's backlog grew to $244 billion, a 22% increase, indicating strong market demand for AI products for both companies.
- Market Reaction: Despite the significant investment potential in cloud computing and AI, the market reacted negatively to both companies' spending plans, leading to stock price declines and presenting long-term investors with an opportunity to buy at a discount.
- Market Reaction: Shares of CBRE, JLL, and Cushman & Wakefield fell on Thursday as investors reassessed the potential impact of AI tools on the commercial real estate services model, heightening concerns about these companies' future profitability.
- AI Impact Assessment: As AI technology rapidly evolves, investors are questioning whether it will reduce the labor embedded in commercial real estate brokerage and advisory work, potentially leading to greater cost pressures and downward pricing risks for these firms.
- CBRE Earnings Highlights: CBRE Group reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.73, exceeding the market expectation of $2.67, although its revenue of approximately $11.63 billion fell slightly short of the anticipated $11.71 billion, demonstrating the company's resilience in profitability.
- Future Outlook: CBRE also issued FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.30 to $7.60, which was positively received by the market; however, the stock still dropped about 8%, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding the future market environment.
- Massive Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced a capital expenditure plan of $175 billion to $185 billion for 2026, while Amazon plans to spend about $200 billion, which will significantly pressure their free cash flow, potentially bringing Amazon's close to zero or negative.
- Cash Flow Status: Alphabet generated $165 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and is expected to maintain positive free cash flow despite increased spending, whereas Amazon's operating cash flow of $140 billion is not growing as fast, risking negative cash flow.
- Backlog Growth: Alphabet's backlog reached $240 billion, up 55% sequentially, indicating strong demand for AI products; Amazon's backlog also grew by 22% to $244 billion, reflecting robust market demand in the cloud computing sector for both companies.
- Market Reaction: Despite the significant investment potential in AI, the market reacted negatively to both companies' spending plans, leading to stock price declines, which may present buying opportunities for long-term investors considering their strong competitive positions in high-return areas.
- Significant Revenue Growth: YouTube generated over $60 billion in revenue in 2025, which is 33% higher than Netflix's $45 billion, showcasing its strong performance in the streaming market and dominance in ad revenue.
- Leading User Engagement: YouTube captured 12.7% of TV viewing time in the U.S., compared to Netflix's 9%, indicating YouTube's superior user retention and content diversity, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Enhanced Network Effect: As more users and content creators join, YouTube's platform value continues to rise, creating a powerful network effect that makes it more resilient in competition, attracting more advertisers and content creators.
- Technology-Driven Innovation: Alphabet's technological engine continuously optimizes YouTube's algorithms, enhancing user experience and content recommendation efficiency, ensuring the platform maintains its competitive edge in the future, particularly with the application of AI technologies.
- Significant Revenue Growth: In 2025, Netflix reported $45 billion in revenue, a 16% year-over-year increase, while YouTube exceeded $60 billion, with $40 billion from ads, showcasing YouTube's robust performance in the streaming market.
- User Base Comparison: Netflix has 325 million subscribers across over 190 countries, but YouTube's user-generated content model attracts a larger audience, further solidifying its market position and engagement levels.
- Market Share Competition: According to Nielsen, YouTube holds a 12.7% share of TV viewing time in the U.S., compared to Netflix's 9%, indicating YouTube's growing competitiveness in home entertainment, which could impact Netflix's user growth.
- Technology-Driven Advantage: Alphabet's technological engine continuously refines YouTube's algorithms to enhance user experience, increasing the platform's value as its user base grows, thus providing a more attractive monetization environment for content creators and putting Netflix under greater competitive pressure.









