Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of Oracle (ORCL):

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing mixed signals with an RSI of 64.83, indicating a moderately overbought condition but not yet at extreme levels. The MACD indicator shows a positive value of 1.12, suggesting some upward momentum.

Recent Developments Oracle has recently made significant strides in AI infrastructure:

• Partnership with OpenAI and SoftBank that could lead to $500 billion in AI infrastructure investments over next four years
• Meta Platforms joining as a new customer for Oracle's AI infrastructure
• Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 52% with GPU consumption increasing by 336%

Valuation Metrics

Current key metrics:

• P/E: 45.22x
• EV/EBITDA: 25.30x
• P/S: 9.57x
• P/B: 37.60x
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%

Analyst Consensus

Recent analyst actions show mixed sentiment:

• Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with $214 price target
• JMP Securities maintains $205 target
• UBS raised target to $210 with Buy rating

Recommendation: SELL

Rationale:

1. High valuation multiples compared to historical averages
2. Significant capital expenditure increase planned for FY2025, which will pressure free cash flow
3. While cloud growth is strong, the stock appears priced for perfection at current levels
4. Technical indicators suggest the stock is approaching overbought territory

Risk Factors:

• Potential TikTok ban could impact revenue as ByteDance is a significant customer
• High debt levels with net debt of $77.4 billion
• Increasing competition in cloud infrastructure space

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze Oracle's stock price prediction for 2025.

Technical Analysis:

The stock is currently trading at $183.60, showing a consolidation pattern after reaching recent highs. Key technical indicators suggest:

• RSI at 64.83 indicates moderate bullish momentum without being overbought
• MACD at 1.12 signals positive momentum
• Moving averages show strong support at $166.96 (20-day) and $176.18 (60-day)

Fundamental Drivers:

According to analyst consensus, Oracle has received:

• 3 Bullish ratings
• 7 Somewhat Bullish ratings
• 7 Neutral ratings
• Average price target: $195.47
• High estimate: $220.00
• Low estimate: $150.00

Growth Catalysts:

1. AI Infrastructure Expansion:

• Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) experiencing 336% growth in GPU usage
• Plans to expand from 98 to 1,000-2,000 data center regions
• Partnership with OpenAI and SoftBank for potential $500B AI infrastructure investment

2. Cloud Revenue Growth:

• Cloud revenue grew 24% in recent quarter
• OCI consumption revenue increased 58% YoY
• Strong demand for AI workloads continuing

Price Prediction for 2025:

Based on the analysis of technical indicators, analyst forecasts, and fundamental growth drivers, Oracle's stock price is expected to reach $210-220 by end of 2025. This prediction is supported by:

• Strong AI infrastructure expansion plans
• Accelerating cloud revenue growth
• Positive analyst sentiment
• Technical uptrend supported by key moving averages

The main risk factor is high capital expenditure requirements, which Oracle plans to double in FY2025, potentially impacting free cash flow in the near term.

The S1 support level for ORCL Stock is $155.37 ,The R1 resistant level for ORCL Stock is $185.6.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of ORCL Stock was $183.569.

The target price for ORCL Stock according to analyst rating is 191.29, with the highest price target at 220.00 and the lowest at 130.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on ORCL Stock overall.

The market cap of ORCL is $513.5B.

Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, I'll analyze whether ORCL is overvalued through multiple perspectives.

Valuation Analysis Oracle's current P/E ratio of 45.22 for Q2 2025 is significantly higher than its historical levels, showing a concerning upward trend from 29.46 in Q3 2024. The EV/EBITDA ratio has also increased substantially to 25.30 from 17.78 during the same period.

Growth and Profitability While Oracle shows strong cloud revenue growth of 24% YoY with cloud infrastructure growing at 52%, the company's overall revenue growth of 9% and adjusted EPS growth of 10% slightly missed market expectations. The gross margin remains stable at around 67-68%, but operating expenses are increasing as a percentage of revenue.

Capital Expenditure Concerns A major concern is Oracle's announcement to double its CAPEX in FY2025, which will significantly impact free cash flow generation. The capex-to-revenue ratio has already reached an all-time high of nearly 30%.

Debt Level Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 622.53% in Q2 2025, though showing improvement from 1423.16% in Q3 2024. This high leverage adds risk to the valuation assessment.

Market Sentiment Recent analyst price targets range from $150 to $220, with an average of $195.47. However, multiple analysts have noted that the current valuation appears stretched, particularly given the company's historical trading multiples.

Based on these factors, ORCL appears overvalued at current levels due to stretched valuation multiples, increasing capital expenditure requirements, and high debt levels, despite strong cloud business performance.

Oracle Corporation provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The Company’s businesses include cloud and license, hardware, and services. Its products and services include enterprise applications and infrastructure offerings that are delivered worldwide through a variety of flexible and interoperable IT deployment models. Its cloud and license business markets, sells, and delivers a spectrum of enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through its cloud and license offerings. Its hardware business provides a selection of enterprise hardware products and hardware-related software products, including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware offerings, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software, and related hardware support. Its services business provides consulting services and advanced customer service. It sells to customers all over the world.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here's a projection for Oracle (ORCL) stock price in 2030:

Oracle's stock price is projected to reach approximately $350-400 by 2030, driven by three key factors:

1. The explosive growth in AI infrastructure demand, with Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue growing 52% year-over-year and GPU usage increasing 336%, positioning Oracle as a major player in the $1 trillion AI infrastructure spending wave expected over the next 4-5 years.

2. Oracle's aggressive data center expansion plans to grow from current 98 regions to 1,000-2,000 locations, which should significantly boost market share in the cloud infrastructure space that's expected to reach $580 billion by 2030.

3. Strong analyst consensus with multiple price target raises in 2025, with firms like Guggenheim and Jefferies setting $220 targets, suggesting continued momentum in Oracle's core business transformation.

ORCL has a total of 164000 employees.