Based on the provided data and context, here is my analysis for IFF's stock price prediction in 2025:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently showing bearish momentum with RSI at 32.01 indicating oversold conditions. The stock has broken below key support levels and is trading well below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting sustained downward pressure.
Fundamental Drivers
- Q4 2024 Results: IFF reported full year sales of $11.48 billion with currency neutral growth of 6%, driven by strong performance in Scent division
- 2025 Guidance:
- Sales: $10.6-10.9 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA: $2.0-2.15 billion
- Comparable currency neutral sales growth: 1-4%
- Note: Guidance includes only 6 months of Pharma Solutions due to planned divestiture
Price Target Analysis
According to analyst consensus:
- Average price target: $103.50 (29.62% upside from current $79.85)
- Range: $77.00 - $120.00
- Rating: Moderate Buy (12 Buy, 2 Hold, 2 Sell ratings)
2025 Price Prediction
Based on technical and fundamental factors, I predict three scenarios for IFF stock in 2025:
- Base Case (60% probability): $85-90
- Modest recovery as cost savings initiatives take hold
- Successful completion of Pharma Solutions divestiture
- Stabilizing margins in core business
- Bull Case (20% probability): $95-105
- Stronger than expected sales growth
- Margin expansion exceeding guidance
- Positive sentiment shift from institutional investors
- Bear Case (20% probability): $70-75
- Continued margin pressure
- Integration challenges
- Broader market volatility impacting multiples
Conclusion
The most likely scenario points to IFF trading in the $85-90 range by end of 2025, representing ~10% upside from current levels. Key catalysts will be successful execution of strategic initiatives and margin improvement.