Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market conditions, here's a concise analysis for GPK stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish momentum in the short term, with price declining from its recent high of $25.99 to current levels around $24.33. The stock has broken below its 5-day moving average of $26.52 and 10-day moving average of $26.63, indicating increasing selling pressure.

Fundamental Factors Recent Q4 earnings report showed:

• Net income decreased to $138 million ($0.46/share) from $196 million ($0.64/share) YoY
• Revenue declined 6.8% to $2.095 billion
• Missed analyst estimates of $0.63 EPS
• FY25 guidance: Sales $8.7-8.9 billion, EPS $2.53-2.78

Recommendation SELL - The combination of:

• Deteriorating technical indicators
• Weaker fundamental performance
• Missed earnings expectations
• Lower guidance suggests further downside risk in the near term.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's the price prediction for GPK stock in 2025:

GPK is expected to reach $31.70 by end of 2025, representing an upside potential of 18.77% from current price of $26.69. This forecast is supported by:

Key Growth Drivers:

• Strategic investments in facilities and sustainability initiatives are expected to enhance cost advantages and support revenue growth
• The company's Waco, Texas recycled paperboard investment moving toward completion will strengthen operational capabilities
• Management projects FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $1.66B-$1.76B and adjusted EPS of $2.48-$2.73

Technical Analysis:

• Current price ($26.69) is trading below both short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating bearish pressure
• Support level at $26.54 with resistance at $26.99 in the near term
• RSI indicates neutral conditions, suggesting potential for upward movement

Analyst Consensus:

• Out of 6 analysts covering GPK:
  • 3 rate it as Buy
  • 3 rate it as Hold
  • Average price target: $31.70
  • Highest target: $35.20
  • Lowest target: $27.00

The stock is expected to face some near-term volatility but should trend higher through 2025 driven by operational improvements and strategic investments. The most likely scenario points to the stock reaching the consensus target of $31.70, though this could vary based on broader market conditions and execution of growth initiatives.

The S1 support level for GPK Stock is $26.14 ,The R1 resistant level for GPK Stock is $27.29.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of GPK Stock was $27.22.

The target price for GPK Stock according to analyst rating is 31.10, with the highest price target at 36.80 and the lowest at 27.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on GPK Stock overall.

The market cap of GPK is $8.1B.

Based on the provided data, I'll analyze whether GPK is overvalued through multiple aspects.

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $26.69, below its 200-day SMA of $28.05, indicating bearish long-term momentum. RSI-14 at 43.71 suggests neutral conditions, while MACD shows slight bearish momentum with a reading of -0.31.

Valuation Metrics The stock's forward P/E ratio has decreased from 13.19 in 2022 to 10.54 in 2023, trading below industry averages. EV/EBITDA of 6.70 also indicates reasonable valuation compared to peers.

Recent Performance Q4 earnings missed estimates with EPS of $0.46 versus expected $0.63, while revenue declined 6.8% to $2.095 billion. However, management provided FY25 guidance of $8.7-8.9 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $2.53-2.78.

Conclusion GPK is not overvalued at current levels, considering its below-average valuation multiples, solid fundamentals, and reasonable growth prospects, despite recent earnings miss.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a consumer packaging provider. The Company’s segments include Paperboard Manufacturing, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. Paperboard Manufacturing segment includes the seven North American paperboard manufacturing facilities that produce recycled, unbleached, and bleached paperboard, which is consumed internally to produce paperboard consumer packaging for the Americas and Europe Packaging segments. Americas Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants serving the food, beverage, and consumer product markets in the Americas. Europe Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging, primarily cartons, sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets including healthcare and beauty products primarily in Europe.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, I'll provide a price prediction for GPK stock in 2030.

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $26.69, showing a slight upward momentum in recent sessions but remains below its 200-day moving average of $28.05, indicating some bearish pressure in the medium term.

Fundamental Drivers & Growth Catalysts

1. Near-term Outlook (2025)

• Management projects FY25 revenue between $8.7-$8.9 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.68-$1.78 billion for 2025
• EPS forecast of $2.53-$2.78, showing steady growth potential

2. Analyst Consensus

• Current average price target is $30.25 with targets ranging from $27.00 to $32.00
• 4 analysts covering the stock maintain a cautiously optimistic stance with 1 Outperform and 3 Hold ratings

2030 Price Prediction

Based on:

• Historical growth patterns
• Industry position in sustainable packaging
• Analyst projections
• Technical indicators

The stock price is expected to reach:

• Base case: $42-45 (representing ~60-70% upside from current levels)
• Bull case: $48-50 (85-90% upside)
• Bear case: $35-38 (30-40% upside)

The prediction is supported by the company's strong market position in sustainable packaging solutions and continued focus on operational efficiency.

GPK has a total of 23500 employees.