AMBP

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Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Line

Candle

YTD

High

3.750

Open

3.620

VWAP

3.71

Vol

2.40M

Mkt Cap

2.23B

Low

3.595

Amount

8.91M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

Total Shares

597.65M

6.00B

EV/OCF(TTM)

P/S(TTM)

0.44

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a Luxembourg based company that supplies consumer metal beverage cans. It supplies infinitely recyclable, metal beverage cans to brand owners. The Company deals with the multiple categories of products including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters and wine. The Company operates approximately 23 production facilities in the Americas and Europe. The Company is also a suppliers of metal beverage can package solutions, capable of supplying multi-national, national and regional beverage producers. The Company's subsidiaries inlcude Ardagh Metal Packaging Holdings Sarl and Gores Holdings V, Inc.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2025Q4

FY2025Q3

FY2025Q2

1.23B

+3.29%

0.029

-3.73%

1.37B

+3.96%

0.063

-20.94%

1.33B

+5.65%

0.067

+12.18%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Upward the revenue expectations for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by 4.68% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by 43.86%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+4.68%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-9.02%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Up

+43.86%

In Past 3 Month

8 Analyst Rating

-3.75% Downside

Wall Street analysts forecast AMBP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBP is 3.59 USD with a low forecast of 2.65 USD and a high forecast of 4.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

-3.75% Downside

Current: 3.730

Low

2.65

Averages

3.59

High

4.00

-3.75% Downside

Current: 3.730

Low

2.65

Averages

3.59

High

4.00

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Buy

Hold

Downgrades

$3.6 → $3.35

2025-01-16

Reason

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Price Target

$3.6 → $3.35

2025-01-16

Downgrades

Buy

Hold

Reason

Wells Fargo downgraded Ardagh Metal Packaging to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $3.35, down from $3.60. The firm believes beverage can manufacturers face the most significant headwinds within its coverage to start 2025, driven by an "already challenging" macro backdrop, trade policy risks, the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, and the Surgeon General's warning on alcohol. For Ardagh, Wells' concerns are excess capacity, high leverage, and a "punitive" dividend paid to its largest shareholder that limits free cash flow.

Morgan Stanley

Pamela Kaufman

Sell

Hold

Upgrades

$3.6 → $3.1

2025-01-13

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Pamela Kaufman

Price Target

$3.6 → $3.1

2025-01-13

Upgrades

Sell

Hold

Reason

Morgan Stanley upgraded Ardagh Metal Packaging to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $3.10, down from $3.60. The firm believes the 2025 paper and packaging demand environment is set up to be more favorable for the volume-driven packaging names, similar to trends seen in the second half of 2024. It upgraded Ardagh following the de-rating for the beverage can space.

UBS

Curt Woodworth

Hold

Maintains

$4.25 → $2.75

2025-01-10

Reason

UBS

Curt Woodworth

Price Target

$4.25 → $2.75

2025-01-10

Maintains

Hold

Reason

UBS analyst Joshua Spector lowered the firm's price target on Ardagh Metal Packaging to $2.75 from $4.25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects Q4 earnings for North America Chemicals and Packaging to be challenging, but with the sector on average down 10% over the last month, this negativity may already be priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Buy

Maintains

$5 → $3.6

2025-01-06

Reason

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Price Target

$5 → $3.6

2025-01-06

Maintains

Buy

Reason

Citigroup

Anthony Pettinari

Strong Buy

Maintains

$4.5 → $4

2025-01-06

Reason

Citigroup

Anthony Pettinari

Price Target

$4.5 → $4

2025-01-06

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Ardagh Metal Packaging to $4 from $4.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated estimates and preferred stock rankings as part of its 2025 packaging outlook. Packagers meaningfully underperformed in 2024 as tepid volumes and price/cost pressure drove negative estimate revisions throughout the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, positively, packaging CEOs are responding with a greater sense of urgency, drive mergers and acquisitions, contends Citi. The firm views Sealed Air (SEE) as the most likely acquisition target in 2025. Its preferred names in 2025 are Smurfit WestRock (SW), Sealed Air, and Silgan Holdings (SLGN).

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Hold

Buy

Upgrades

$4.25 → $5

2024-10-15

Reason

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Price Target

$4.25 → $5

2024-10-15

Upgrades

Hold

Buy

Reason

Wells Fargo upgraded Ardagh Metal Packaging to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $5, up from $4.25.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP.N) is 19.33, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 18.49. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Ardagh Metal Packaging SA 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PE

18.49

Current PE

19.33

Overvalued PE

27.37

Undervalued PE

9.61

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

7.77

Current EV/EBITDA

8.25

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

11.37

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

4.17

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

0.54

Current PS

0.42

Overvalued PS

0.91

Undervalued PS

0.16