AMBP Valuation

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

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4.000

+0.24(6.383%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

AMBP Relative Valuation

AMBP's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, AMBP is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 15.45 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 18.58. The fair price of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) is between 2.80 to 6.47 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

2.80-6.47

Current Price：4.06

Fair

16.76

Trailing

Forward

8.18

EV/EBITDA

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA. (AMBP) has a current EV/EBITDA of 8.18. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 7.81. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.74, Undervalued between 0.74 and 4.27, Fairly Valued between 11.34 and 4.27, Overvalued between 11.34 and 14.87, and Strongly Overvalued above 14.87. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 8.18 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

20.94

EV/EBIT

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA. (AMBP) has a current EV/EBIT of 20.94. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 18.89. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 1.26, Undervalued between 1.26 and 10.08, Fairly Valued between 27.71 and 10.08, Overvalued between 27.71 and 36.52, and Strongly Overvalued above 36.52. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 20.94 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.42

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA. (AMBP) has a current PS of 0.42. The 5-year average PS is 0.53. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.20, Undervalued between -0.20 and 0.17, Fairly Valued between 0.90 and 0.17, Overvalued between 0.90 and 1.27, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.27. The current Forward PS of 0.42 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.00

P/OCF

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA. (AMBP) has a current P/OCF of 0.00. The 5-year average P/OCF is 5.84. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -18.89, Undervalued between -18.89 and -6.52, Fairly Valued between 18.21 and -6.52, Overvalued between 18.21 and 30.58, and Strongly Overvalued above 30.58. The current Forward P/OCF of 0.00 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

8.45

P/FCF

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA. (AMBP) has a current P/FCF of 8.45. The 5-year average P/FCF is 10.11. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -59.20, Undervalued between -59.20 and -24.54, Fairly Valued between 44.76 and -24.54, Overvalued between 44.76 and 79.41, and Strongly Overvalued above 79.41. The current Forward P/FCF of 8.45 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of -7.07. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.05 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -444.71% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 14.66, the current P/B ratio is about -148.19% higher. Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 13.11%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 1.23%, the current FCF yield is approximately 965.10% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 0.78% , the current FCF yield is about 1573.10% lower.

-6.89

P/B

Median3y

2.05

Median5y

14.66

13.57

FCF Yield

Median3y

1.23

Median5y

0.78

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for AMBP's competitors is 0.68, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Corp (AMBP) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.42, which is -38.60% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 11.13%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

AMBP.N

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of AMBP increased by 12.10% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in P/E Change from -80.70 to -132.21.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 11.13%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of AMBP in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

11.13%

1.14B → 1.27B

Revenue Growth

-62.86%

-1.05 → -0.39

Margin Expansion

63.83%

-80.70 → -132.21

P/E Change

12.10%