AMBP Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AMBP performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AMBP sees a +1.70% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -3.12% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -3.57%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AMBP Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.31B
1.47%
4.29%
Gross Margin
11.88%
21.10%
6.07%
Operating Margin
6.55%
24.52%
26.94%
Net Margin
1.37%
4.58%
756.25%
EPS
0.02
0.00%
-300.00%
No Data Available
AMBP Earnings Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Corporation (AMBP.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Increase: 1. Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Ardagh Metal Packaging reported a 15% increase in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting strong double-digit growth across both segments, driven by effective input cost management and improved manufacturing performance.
European Revenue Growth: 2. European Revenue Increase: Revenue in Europe rose by 2% to $572 million, supported by a solid 2% growth in beverage shipments, indicating strong demand in the market.
Americas EBITDA Increase: 3. Americas Adjusted EBITDA: The Americas segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase by 13% to $117 million, attributed to favorable volume mix effects and lower operating costs, showcasing operational efficiency.
Free Cash Flow Generation: 4. Strong Free Cash Flow: The company generated $150 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter, driven by EBITDA growth and effective cash management, highlighting financial strength.
Liquidity Position Improvement: 5. Improved Liquidity Position: Ardagh ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $707 million, expected to increase to approximately $1 billion by year-end, enhancing financial stability and flexibility.
Negative
Volume Outlook Revision: 1. Declining Volume Outlook: The company revised its volume expectations for the Americas down to low single-digit growth for 2024, primarily due to ongoing weakness in the energy category and specific customer issues in Brazil.
Customer Volume Decline: 2. Customer-Specific Volume Loss: In Brazil, a specific customer reduced volume and took downtime, impacting shipments and leading to a forecasted decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, contrasting with a strong prior year performance where shipments grew by 34%.
Operating Costs Impact: 3. Increased Operating Costs: Despite a strong adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%, the company faced higher operating costs due to additional manufacturing complexity, which partially offset the benefits from favorable volume mix and stronger input cost recovery.
Energy Category Weakness: 4. Weakness in Energy Category: The energy category in North America, which represents a low teens percentage of the portfolio, is currently restraining growth and is expected to result in some weakness in the fourth quarter.
Underutilized Production Capacity: 5. Underutilized Capacity: The company anticipates $30 million to $40 million of underabsorption in 2024, indicating that they are not fully utilizing their production capacity, which could impact profitability.
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AMBP Earning Call Sentiment
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
AMBP.N
0.37%Positive
The earnings call reveals mixed signals: improved EBITDA guidance and strong cash flow are positive, but competitive pressures and supply chain challenges present risks. The Q&A highlights concerns about energy sector weakness and demand volatility, particularly in the Americas. While European growth is stable, US energy softness and Brazil's shipment decline temper optimism. The dividend cap and cautious guidance suggest limited financial flexibility. Given the market cap, the stock is unlikely to experience drastic movements, leading to a neutral prediction.
