AMBP Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AMBP performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AMBP sees a -0.18% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -4.20% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -2.35%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AMBP Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.20B
5.57%
-8.99%
Gross Margin
11.13%
29.87%
-6.31%
Operating Margin
5.52%
101.46%
-15.73%
Net Margin
-0.92%
-81.41%
-167.15%
EPS
-0.03
-70.00%
-250.00%
No Data Available
AMBP Earnings Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Corporation (AMBP.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
EBITDA Growth Success: 2024 represented a successful year for AMP with a double digit adjusted EBITDA increase driven by 3% growth in global volumes.
Liquidity and Leverage Ratio: AMP ended the year with nearly $1 billion of liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.
EBITDA Growth in Q4: In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% year-over-year to $164 million, positively impacted by higher than forecast sales volumes and production in Europe.
Europe Revenue Surge: Europe's revenue increased by 27% to $552 million, with shipments growing by a strong 8% for the quarter, indicating a return to growth following customer destocking.
European EBITDA Surge: Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million, driven by positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery.
Beverage Can Market Growth: The beverage can continues to gain share in the packaging mix, reflecting its competitiveness and sustainability advantages, supporting expectations for industry shipment growth into 2025.
Sustainability Progress Initiatives: AMP made strong progress towards sustainability, including a roadmap report on Scope 3 emissions and agreements for renewable energy projects in Germany and Portugal.
Safety Performance Improvement: The company reported a reduction in total recordable incident rates and accident severity rates, highlighting improvements in safety performance.
Strong Free Cash Flow: AMP generated an adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024, supported by a strong liquidity position and no near-term bond maturities.
Quarterly Dividend Announcement: The company announced a quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, supported by its robust liquidity position.
Negative
Americas Revenue Decline: Revenue in the Americas decreased by 7% to $653 million, reflecting unfavorable volume mix effects.
Americas Adjusted EBITDA Decline: Adjusted EBITDA for the Americas decreased by 8% to $108 million due to lower volumes, particularly in Brazil and the North American energy category.
Beverage Can Shipment Decline: In Brazil, fourth quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, primarily due to a specific customer mix billing location issue.
Brazil Shipments Decline: Full year shipments in Brazil were affected by the same customer issue, resulting in a 5% decrease.
Beverage Can Industry Slowdown: The Brazilian beverage can industry experienced lower growth in Q4, with full year growth dropping into the mid to high single digit range after earlier double digit growth.
Free Cash Flow Decline: Adjusted free cash flow decreased to $204 million in 2024 from $260 million in the prior year, mainly due to lower working capital inflow.
Working Capital Outflow Expectations: Expectations for a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025, indicating potential cash flow challenges ahead.
Rising Cash Interest Impact: Cash interest is expected to increase to just over $200 million in 2025, which could impact overall profitability.
Maintenance Capital Expenditure Outlook: Maintenance CapEx is projected to be around $135 million, indicating ongoing capital expenditure commitments that could strain cash flow.
AMBP FAQs
How does AMBP typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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AMBP Earning Call Sentiment
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AMBP.N
0.67%Positive
The earnings call summary indicates mixed signals: strong European performance and improved EBITDA guidance contrast with challenges in the Americas and uncertainties from economic factors. The Q&A reveals positive recovery signs but also highlights concerns like tariffs and unclear management responses. The market cap suggests moderate volatility. Overall, the strong European results and optimistic guidance are offset by regional challenges and economic headwinds, leading to a neutral sentiment prediction for the stock price movement.
