AAP

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Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

High

57.510

Open

57.510

VWAP

Vol

2.28M

Mkt Cap

3.40B

Low

55.810

Amount

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

Total Shares

59.62M

3.52B

EV/OCF(TTM)

P/S(TTM)

0.38

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, as well as independently owned operators. The Company's stores and branches offer a range selection of brand names, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and owned brand automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy-duty trucks. The Company operates approximately 4,788 stores primarily within the United States (U.S.), with additional locations in Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Company also serves approximately 934 independently owned Carquest branded stores across these locations in addition to Mexico and various Caribbean islands. Its stores operate primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade names.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2025Q2

FY2025Q3

FY2025Q4

1.97B

-26.4%

0.572

-23.77%

2.00B

-7.03%

0.834

-2183.8%

1.96B

-1.56%

0.696

-158.96%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Upward the revenue expectations for Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by 0.09% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by 73.41%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+0.09%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+20.42%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Up

+73.41%

In Past 3 Month

20 Analyst Rating

-16.06% Downside

Wall Street analysts forecast AAP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAP is 47.63 USD with a low forecast of 35.00 USD and a high forecast of 62.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

18 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

-16.06% Downside

Current: 56.740

Low

35.00

Averages

47.63

High

62.00

-16.06% Downside

Current: 56.740

Low

35.00

Averages

47.63

High

62.00

Evercore ISI

In Line

maintain

$52 -> $56

2025-07-25

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$52 -> $56

2025-07-25

New

maintain

In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Advance Auto Parts to $56 from $52 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. Advance reported preliminary Q2 results that included comps of 0 to 0.1% and revenue slightly beating Street expectations, indicating that the company is making strides in its turnaround strategy, the analyst tells investors.

DA Davidson

Neutral

maintain

$47 -> $65

2025-07-25

New

Reason

DA Davidson

Price Target

$47 -> $65

2025-07-25

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on Advance Auto Parts to $65 from $47 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Advance Auto Parts pre-announced Q2 results in-line to at the high end of previous guidance, as well as announcing a $1.5B debt offering, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Citi

Steven Zaccone

Neutral

maintain

$49 -> $60

2025-07-25

New

Reason

Citi

Steven Zaccone

Price Target

$49 -> $60

2025-07-25

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi analyst Steven Zaccone raised the firm's price target on Advance Auto Parts to $60 from $49 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the company announced its intention to issue $1.5B of new debt and pre-announced Q2 results concurrent with the refinancing announcement. Given that the proposed offering will improve Advance's liquidity position, the firm says the move "seems like a wise decision," but adds that the cost of capital is high and the deal will likely be dilutive to EPS.

Mizuho

Neutral

maintain

$38 -> $44

2025-07-03

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$38 -> $44

2025-07-03

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Advance Auto Parts to $44 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Citing calendar Q1 earnings season, updated financial guidance, and Q2-to-date commentary, the firm is tightening its estimates for a number of companies in its retailing broadlines and hardlines coverage.

Goldman Sachs

Neutral -> Sell

downgrade

$48 -> $46

2025-06-24

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$48 -> $46

2025-06-24

downgrade

Neutral -> Sell

Reason

Goldman Sachs downgraded Advance Auto Parts to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $46, down from $48, which implies 11% downside from current levels. Advance Auto is likely to underperform peers in the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says recent visitation data from Placer.ai and survey responses from HundredX that suggests the company could be losing share. Goldman also takes a more cautious view regarding Advance Auto's margin recovery story, and notes the stock's current multiple "appears extended relative to history."

Redburn Atlantic

Sell -> Neutral

upgrade

$28 -> $45

2025-06-03

Reason

Redburn Atlantic

Price Target

$28 -> $45

2025-06-03

upgrade

Sell -> Neutral

Reason

Redburn Atlantic upgraded Advance Auto Parts to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $45, up from $28. Although Advance is yet to make meaningful progress with its turnaround and concerns regarding its investment plan and balance sheet remain, the company will benefit from the favorable second half of 2025 backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says this will help the company to accelerate comp and earnings growth, as was seen in fiscal 2021. The growth will likely to support the stock price in the near term, contends Redburn.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP.N) is 22.19, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 29.57. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Advance Auto Parts Inc 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

N/A

5Y Average PE

29.57

Current PE

22.19

Overvalued PE

65.32

Undervalued PE

-6.18

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

12.50

Current EV/EBITDA

11.08

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

15.83

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

9.17

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

0.73

Current PS

0.41

Overvalued PS

1.11

Undervalued PS

0.34