AAP Valuation

Advance Auto Parts Inc

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59.080

-0.49(-0.823%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

AAP Relative Valuation

AAP's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, AAP is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 0.42 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 29.73. The fair price of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) is between 70.47 to 155.29 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 58.06 USD , Advance Auto Parts Inc is Undervalued By 17.6%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

70.47-155.29

Current Price：58.06

17.6%

Undervalued

24.00

Trailing

Forward

10.97

EV/EBITDA

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a current EV/EBITDA of 10.97. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 12.48. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 5.80, Undervalued between 5.80 and 9.14, Fairly Valued between 15.82 and 9.14, Overvalued between 15.82 and 19.16, and Strongly Overvalued above 19.16. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 10.97 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

20.86

EV/EBIT

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a current EV/EBIT of 20.86. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 23.92. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -8.99, Undervalued between -8.99 and 7.46, Fairly Valued between 40.37 and 7.46, Overvalued between 40.37 and 56.83, and Strongly Overvalued above 56.83. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 20.86 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.41

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a current PS of 0.41. The 5-year average PS is 0.71. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.06, Undervalued between -0.06 and 0.33, Fairly Valued between 1.10 and 0.33, Overvalued between 1.10 and 1.49, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.49. The current Forward PS of 0.41 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-11.17

P/OCF

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a current P/OCF of -11.17. The 5-year average P/OCF is 11.26. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -13.54, Undervalued between -13.54 and -1.14, Fairly Valued between 23.66 and -1.14, Overvalued between 23.66 and 36.06, and Strongly Overvalued above 36.06. The current Forward P/OCF of -11.17 falls within the Undervalued range.

103.57

P/FCF

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a current P/FCF of 103.57. The 5-year average P/FCF is 27.38. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -97.79, Undervalued between -97.79 and -35.21, Fairly Valued between 89.96 and -35.21, Overvalued between 89.96 and 152.54, and Strongly Overvalued above 152.54. The current Forward P/FCF of 103.57 falls within the Overvalued range.

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.62. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.79 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -9.51% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 2.58, the current P/B ratio is about -37.15% higher. Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -8.15%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 2.41%, the current FCF yield is approximately -437.84% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 3.83% , the current FCF yield is about -312.56% lower.

1.62

P/B

Median3y

1.79

Median5y

2.58

-8.34

FCF Yield

Median3y

2.41

Median5y

3.83

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for AAP's competitors is 1.09, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Advance Auto Parts Inc Corp (AAP) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.41, which is -62.19% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -7.71%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

AAP.N

Advance Auto Parts Inc

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of AAP increased by 55.87% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in P/E Change from -2.84 to -5.98.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -7.71%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of AAP in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-7.71%

2.18B → 2.01B

Revenue Growth

-47.18%

1.42 → 0.75

Margin Expansion

110.76%

-2.84 → -5.98

P/E Change

55.87%