AAP Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AAP performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AAP sees a +13.65% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -5.15% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -7.64%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AAP Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
2.00B
-0.91%
-7.07%
Gross Margin
17.39%
-57.26%
-58.86%
Operating Margin
-25.61%
1854.96%
-128150.00%
Net Margin
-30.54%
1645.14%
2488.14%
EPS
-6.94
-1076.27%
6840.00%
No Data Available
AAP Earnings Analysis
Advance Auto Parts Inc Corporation (AAP.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Comparable Sales Improvement: The company reported an improvement in comparable sales during Q4, indicating a positive trend in customer demand.
Cash Position Enhancement: Advance Auto Parts ended the year with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, bolstered by proceeds from the Worldpac sale, enhancing liquidity for future initiatives.
Strategic Profitability Vision: The introduction of a three-year strategic plan aims to deliver adjusted operating margins of approximately 7% by 2027, showcasing a clear long-term vision for profitability.
Merchandising Improvement Initiative: The company has made significant progress in merchandising, including a pilot program that improved store performance, which will be rolled out to cover over 70% of sales.
Supply Chain Transformation: The transformation of the supply chain is underway, with plans to consolidate distribution centers, which is expected to drive labor productivity and cost savings.
Market Hub Store Impact: The opening of market hub stores is set to increase parts availability and improve service levels, with positive early results in comparable sales growth from these locations.
Financial Reporting Improvement: The company has successfully remediated all outstanding material weaknesses in its financial reporting, enhancing its control environment.
Service Speed Improvement: Advance Auto Parts is focused on improving speed of service in stores, with a new standardized operating model showing promising early results in pilot tests.
Negative
Q4 Net Sales Decline: Fourth quarter net sales from continuing operations were $2 billion, a 1% decrease compared with Q4 last year.
Comparable Store Sales Decline: Comparable stores declined 1% and exclude closing store locations that generated $74 million in liquidation sales.
Adjusted Operating Loss: Adjusted operating loss from continuing operations came in at $99 million or negative 5% of net sales.
Increased Loss Per Share: Adjusted diluted loss per share from continuing operations was $1.18 compared with a loss of $0.45 per share in the prior year.
Comparable Store Sales Decline: Full year comparable store sales declined 70 basis points, driven by the deceleration in the second half of the year and attributed to the overall softness in consumer spending environment.
SG&A Expense Analysis: Adjusted SG&A from continuing operations was $3.8 billion or 41.8% of net sales, driving a deleverage of approximately 50 basis points compared in 2023, primarily driven by higher labor related expenses.
Net Sales Forecast Decline: We expect net sales in the range of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, which is a reduction of 5% to 8% year-over-year due to store closures.
Negative Operating Margin Outlook: We expect Q1 operating margin of approximately negative 2%, primarily driven by closure cost.
Weaker Sales Outlook: Sales have started off weaker than expected entering the year, which is factored into our Q1 expectations.
