U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
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Analyst Views on DHI
Wall Street analysts forecast DHI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DHI is 157.00 USD with a low forecast of 117.00 USD and a high forecast of 191.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 162.280
Low
117.00
Averages
157.00
High
191.00
Current: 162.280
Low
117.00
Averages
157.00
High
191.00
About DHI
D.R. Horton, Inc. is a homebuilding company. The Company constructs and sells homes through its operating divisions in 125 markets across 36 states. The Company’s segments include Homebuilding, Rental, Forestar, Financial Services, and Other. The Homebuilding divisions are primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of land and the construction and sale of residential homes. The Company’s rental segment consists of single-family and multifamily rental operations. The single-family rental operations construct and lease single-family homes within a community and then generally market each community for a bulk sale of rental homes. The Forestar segment is a residential lot development company with operations in 59 markets across 24 states. The Financial services segment provides mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in many of the Company’s homebuilding markets. It also conducts insurance-related operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
See More
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations
- Strong Job Growth: The U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 70,000 and a revised 48,000 from December, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- Unemployment Rate Decline: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4% and the previous 4.4%, suggesting ongoing improvements in the job market that may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Accelerated Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month in January, exceeding the 0.3% consensus, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating rising wage pressures that could elevate inflation expectations.
- Long-term Employment Outlook Revision: The 2025 employment forecast was revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, with a monthly average of only 15,000, reflecting signs of weakness in the future labor market that may impact investor confidence.
See More
Mixed Close for US Stocks as Retail Sales Stagnate
- Retail Sales Weakness: US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the +0.4% expectation, indicating weakness in consumer spending that could lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, thereby impacting market confidence and economic growth outlook.
- Employment Cost Index Decline: The US Q4 employment cost index rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected +0.8%, marking the smallest increase in 4.5 years, suggesting easing labor cost pressures that may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high, closing up +0.10%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell by -0.33% and -0.56%, respectively, reflecting divergent market sentiment and uncertainty.
- Focus on Upcoming Economic Data: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, which are expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and market trends.
See More
Trump Administration Weighs Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust probe into homebuilders, causing stocks of major firms like DR Horton and Lennar to drop by 1.8%, indicating market concerns over potential regulatory impacts on profitability.
- Information Flow Review: The investigation may focus on the flow of information with the trade group Leading Builders of America, amid worries that member companies could use this information to limit new home supply or coordinate pricing, potentially harming market competition.
- Housing Affordability Issues: With housing affordability at record lows, builders are exploring avenues for cooperation with the White House, including a proposed
See More
Trump Administration Considers Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation Potential: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust investigation into U.S. homebuilders, although no final decision has been made, raising concerns about the industry's outlook and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Following this news, shares of Lennar Corp. (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) fell approximately 2%, reflecting the market's sensitivity to potential regulatory risks, which could lead to short-term capital outflows.
- Industry Impact: Should the investigation proceed, it could have far-reaching implications for the entire homebuilding sector, especially in the current market environment where companies may face stricter compliance requirements, thereby affecting profitability.
- Future Developments Monitoring: As the investigation could commence in the coming weeks, investors need to closely monitor related developments to assess the long-term impacts on the market and individual stocks, particularly in the context of the recovering real estate market.
See More
KB Home Declines 0.8%, PulteGroup Decreases 1.1%, Hovnanian Enterprises Drops 0.5%
Home Sales Decline: Home sales have decreased by 0.8%, indicating a slowdown in the housing market.
PulteGroup Performance: PulteGroup's stock has fallen by 1.1%, reflecting challenges in the construction and real estate sector.
Hovnanian Enterprises Drop: Hovnanian Enterprises has experienced a decline of 0.5%, suggesting potential issues within the company or market conditions.
Market Trends: Overall, the trends indicate a cautious outlook for the housing and construction industries, with several companies reporting declines.
See More
U.S. Housing Shortage and Investment Opportunities
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
See More
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations
- Strong Job Growth: The U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 70,000 and a revised 48,000 from December, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- Unemployment Rate Decline: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4% and the previous 4.4%, suggesting ongoing improvements in the job market that may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Accelerated Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month in January, exceeding the 0.3% consensus, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating rising wage pressures that could elevate inflation expectations.
- Long-term Employment Outlook Revision: The 2025 employment forecast was revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, with a monthly average of only 15,000, reflecting signs of weakness in the future labor market that may impact investor confidence.
See More
Mixed Close for US Stocks as Retail Sales Stagnate
- Retail Sales Weakness: US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the +0.4% expectation, indicating weakness in consumer spending that could lead to a downward revision in Q4 GDP, thereby impacting market confidence and economic growth outlook.
- Employment Cost Index Decline: The US Q4 employment cost index rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, below the expected +0.8%, marking the smallest increase in 4.5 years, suggesting easing labor cost pressures that may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
- Mixed Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new all-time high, closing up +0.10%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell by -0.33% and -0.56%, respectively, reflecting divergent market sentiment and uncertainty.
- Focus on Upcoming Economic Data: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, which are expected to significantly influence future monetary policy and market trends.
See More
Trump Administration Weighs Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust probe into homebuilders, causing stocks of major firms like DR Horton and Lennar to drop by 1.8%, indicating market concerns over potential regulatory impacts on profitability.
- Information Flow Review: The investigation may focus on the flow of information with the trade group Leading Builders of America, amid worries that member companies could use this information to limit new home supply or coordinate pricing, potentially harming market competition.
- Housing Affordability Issues: With housing affordability at record lows, builders are exploring avenues for cooperation with the White House, including a proposed
See More
Trump Administration Considers Antitrust Probe into Homebuilders
- Antitrust Investigation Potential: The Trump administration is considering an antitrust investigation into U.S. homebuilders, although no final decision has been made, raising concerns about the industry's outlook and potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Following this news, shares of Lennar Corp. (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) fell approximately 2%, reflecting the market's sensitivity to potential regulatory risks, which could lead to short-term capital outflows.
- Industry Impact: Should the investigation proceed, it could have far-reaching implications for the entire homebuilding sector, especially in the current market environment where companies may face stricter compliance requirements, thereby affecting profitability.
- Future Developments Monitoring: As the investigation could commence in the coming weeks, investors need to closely monitor related developments to assess the long-term impacts on the market and individual stocks, particularly in the context of the recovering real estate market.
See More
KB Home Declines 0.8%, PulteGroup Decreases 1.1%, Hovnanian Enterprises Drops 0.5%
Home Sales Decline: Home sales have decreased by 0.8%, indicating a slowdown in the housing market.
PulteGroup Performance: PulteGroup's stock has fallen by 1.1%, reflecting challenges in the construction and real estate sector.
Hovnanian Enterprises Drop: Hovnanian Enterprises has experienced a decline of 0.5%, suggesting potential issues within the company or market conditions.
Market Trends: Overall, the trends indicate a cautious outlook for the housing and construction industries, with several companies reporting declines.
See More
