Should You Buy D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
150.170
1 Day change
1.06%
52 Week Range
184.540
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient about entry timing. DHI is a high-quality homebuilder with long-term housing-supply tailwinds, but the current setup is weaker: short-term technicals are bearish, options flow is defensive (put-heavy volume), and the latest quarter showed notable YoY declines in revenue, earnings, and margins. If you already own it, holding is reasonable; for new money today, I would not buy aggressively at this level.
Technical Analysis
Price is ~150 (post-market 150.01), sitting just above key support S1=149.02 and below the pivot 154.55 (a common “trend line” for near-term bias). Momentum is currently negative: MACD histogram is -0.593 and expanding bearishly, suggesting downside pressure is increasing rather than stabilizing. RSI(6)=41.86 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), implying there’s room for more downside before a typical “washed-out” bounce. Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a larger move; with MACD negative and price below the pivot, the near-term edge is still bearish. Levels to watch: support 149.0 then 145.6; resistance 154.5 then 160.1.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed-to-bearish short-term. Open interest put/call at 0.83 suggests more call positioning outstanding (not heavily bearish structurally), but today’s put/call volume at 3.12 shows traders are actively buying puts or put spreads now (near-term caution/hedging). Implied volatility (30D) is 36.78 vs historical volatility 27.73, meaning options are pricing elevated risk. Volume is also elevated (today vs 30D avg ~125%), reinforcing that sentiment is actively defensive around current levels.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
1) Macro catalyst: market focus on potential Fed rate cuts—lower mortgage rates typically improve affordability and demand for homebuilders.
2) High-profile sentiment boost: Warren Buffett commentary/support highlighted DHI’s positioning for a U.S. housing shortage.
3) Business positioning: large builders like DHI can compete effectively in affordability-focused segments and have scale advantages.
4) Some bullish Wall Street views: several Buy ratings with targets well above current price (e.g., UBS 193, Argus 185, BTIG 182).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Near-term demand/margins concern: guidance commentary points to higher incentives and weaker demand through Q1, pressuring gross margin.
2) Defensive options flow: put-heavy volume indicates traders are hedging or leaning bearish in the short run.
3) Insider activity: insiders are selling sharply (selling amount up ~2048% last month), which is a notable confidence headwind.
4) Technical weakness: negative MACD and price below pivot resistance increase odds of a drift toward 149/145 support zones.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Growth trends were negative YoY: Revenue 6.887B (-9.54% YoY), Net Income 594.8M (-29.60% YoY), EPS 2.03 (-22.22% YoY), and Gross Margin 23.3% (-7.61% YoY). This shows profitability compression (likely incentives/competition/affordability pressure) even though the company still delivered results that beat some expectations. For long-term investors, DHI remains profitable and scaled, but the current cycle is working against near-term earnings momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is mixed with slightly more caution after earnings: multiple firms lowered price targets (Keefe Bruyette to 163, BofA to 158, Barclays to 129), while others raised targets or stayed bullish (Argus to 185, UBS to 193, Evercore to 169). Overall, Wall Street’s “pros” case is that DHI is a scale leader positioned for an eventual housing demand recovery and long-term undersupply; the “cons” case is that 2026 may be a margin-reset year with incentives and affordability pressures keeping fundamentals soft. Hedge funds are reportedly buying aggressively (+1894% QoQ buying), but insiders are selling aggressively—creating a push-pull sentiment backdrop.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.)
Wall Street analysts forecast DHI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DHI is 157 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 191 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DHI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DHI is 157 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 191 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 148.590
Low
117
Averages
157
High
191
Current: 148.590
Low
117
Averages
157
High
191
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
downgrade
$168 -> $163
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$168 -> $163
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on D.R. Horton to $163 from $168 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
Argus
Chris Graja
Buy
maintain
$175 -> $185
2026-01-23
Reason
Argus
Chris Graja
Price Target
$175 -> $185
2026-01-23
maintain
Buy
Reason
Argus analyst Chris Graja raised the firm's price target on D.R. Horton to $185 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is bullish on the need for affordable homes, the relative advantage of large builders in the current environment, the company's expertise in delivering affordable homes, and its top-tier financial strength in the industry, the analyst tells investors in a research note. A recent catalyst coinciding with a decline of 20 basis points in the benchmark mortgage rate has been President Trump's statement this month that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, the firm added.
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