Upstart and Atlassian Stocks Underperform but Analysts See Value
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 26 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TEAM?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Stock Underperformance: Upstart and Atlassian have seen their shares decline by 22% and 34%, respectively, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 18% gain, indicating potential undervaluation and a buying opportunity for investors.
- Upstart's Growth Potential: Upstart reported a 71% increase in total revenue to $277 million in Q3, with a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.52, reflecting strong market traction for its new products (auto, home, and small-dollar loans) and suggesting further profitability enhancement ahead.
- Atlassian's Market Position: Atlassian's revenue grew by 21% to $1.4 billion in Q1, with non-GAAP earnings rising 35% to $1.04 per share, underscoring its leadership in work management software, particularly among both technical and non-technical teams.
- Adoption of AI Tools: The number of users utilizing Atlassian's AI features surged by 50% from the previous quarter, which not only enhances customer satisfaction but also has the potential to drive future revenue growth by strengthening product competitiveness and consolidating market share.
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Analyst Views on TEAM
Wall Street analysts forecast TEAM stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 89.435
Low
185.00
Averages
235.57
High
320.00
Current: 89.435
Low
185.00
Averages
235.57
High
320.00
About TEAM
Atlassian Corporation is a provider of team collaboration and productivity software. The Company specializes in software development, work management, and enterprise service management software, which enables enterprises to connect their business and technology teams with an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered system of work. Its interconnected portfolio of apps, AI agents, and Collections, each with discrete value propositions, delivers solutions for software teams, IT operations and support teams, leadership, and business teams. Its apps, agents, and Collections are all built on the Atlassian Cloud Platform and data model: a common technology foundation that connects teams, information, and workflows throughout an organization. The Company's apps include Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management, Rovo, Bitbucket, Compass, Jira Product Discovery, Jira Align, Focus and Talent. It operates the Dia and Arc browsers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a 15-month high of 4.66%, triggering risk-off sentiment in the market and leading to long liquidations in stocks, which exacerbates investor concerns about future economic growth.
- Oil Price Volatility: WTI crude oil prices dropped following President Trump's cancellation of a military strike on Iran, despite the IEA reporting a decline in global oil inventories by about 4 million bpd, with the market expected to remain severely undersupplied even if the conflict ends.
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See More
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- Cybersecurity Market Growth: Cybersecurity is viewed as a non-negotiable line item in corporate IT budgets, with the rise of AI increasing hacking threats, driving sustained demand in the sector, which is expected to remain robust in the future.
- Fortinet's Strong Performance: Fortinet reported a 20% year-over-year revenue growth and a 41% increase in EPS in Q1 2026, with its cybersecurity networking segment (66% of billings) up 32% year-over-year, indicating strong market performance and customer demand.
- Palo Alto Networks' Platform Strategy: Palo Alto Networks'
See More
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- Accelerated Subscription Growth: Piper Sandler highlighted the acceleration of annual recurring revenue growth over the past two years, indicating enhanced competitiveness for Atlassian, which may attract more investor interest in its long-term value.
- Strategic Partnership Expansion: The expanded partnership with Google Cloud opens opportunities for integrating AI models with the Rovo AI platform and Google Workspace, which is expected to drive solid cloud revenue growth and further solidify Atlassian's market position.
- Market Outlook Analysis: While analysts maintain a bullish outlook on TEAM, they also note that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential, suggesting that investors should be cautious and monitor market dynamics to optimize their investment portfolios.
See More
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- Market Pullback Impact: The software sector has experienced a 15.4% decline over the past six months, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 10% return, indicating significant valuation pressure that may affect investor confidence.
- Commvault Performance Concerns: Commvault (CVLT), with a market cap of $4.22 billion, has seen only 10.3% annual revenue growth over the past five years, lagging behind peers, while its operating margin has declined by 1.2 percentage points, increasing pressure to spend more on sales and marketing in a competitive landscape.
- Atlassian Growth Potential: Atlassian (TEAM), valued at $21.57 billion, boasts an impressive 84.8% gross margin and is projected to increase its free cash flow margin by 9 percentage points next year, showcasing strong market fit and growth potential, making it a favorable investment choice.
- Guidewire Software Advantages: Guidewire (GWRE), with a market cap of $11.12 billion, has achieved an average billings growth of 21.1% over the past year, indicating steady product demand, and its 21.9% free cash flow margin exceeds industry averages, providing ample room for future growth initiatives.
See More
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- Stock Recovery Potential: Despite Atlassian's stock dropping nearly 90% from its all-time high, analysts predict a potential doubling of its stock price, with Piper Sandler setting a target price of $175, reflecting market confidence in its future growth.
- AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Atlassian's AI platform Rovo enhances user efficiency, with its Service Collection package surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, up 30% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand for AI solutions.
- Customer Retention and Expansion: Customers using Rovo are growing their annual recurring revenue at twice the rate of those not using it, suggesting that AI is not undermining Atlassian's software value but rather enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Market Opportunities and Operating Leverage: Atlassian estimates its addressable market at $140 billion, and as customers migrate to the cloud, annual recurring revenue is expected to increase by 75% after three years, with the company poised to capture more market share through product expansion and cross-selling.
See More
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- Declining Consumer Confidence: Despite rising stock prices, the University of Michigan's May consumer sentiment index fell by 1.6 to a record low of 48.2, reflecting consumer concerns about the economic outlook, which could negatively impact future spending.
- Chip Stocks Lead Gains: Chipmakers like Micron and Qualcomm saw stock prices rise over 8%, driving the overall market higher, demonstrating the strong performance of tech stocks in the current market environment, although weakness in software stocks limited gains in the Dow.
- Oil Price Volatility Impact: WTI crude prices edged up slightly due to Iran seizing an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating market expectations for future oil prices, which may influence investment decisions in related sectors.
See More
