CVLT's stock price has been experiencing volatility, closing at $153.67 recently, up 1.13% from the previous day, but down 14.89% over the past month. This underperformance compared to its sector and the S&P 500 might indicate some challenges. However, the upcoming earnings report is expected to show a 15.19% increase in EPS, which is a positive sign.

Valuation Analysis:

CVLT currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 43.04, which is substantially higher than the average for the software industry, typically around 25-30. This suggests that investors are pricing in high growth expectations, which might not be sustainable if growth slows down.

Sentiment and Analyst Ratings:

Analyst sentiment is mixed. KeyBanc analyst Eric Heath maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $87 to $82, citing lower peer multiples. On the other hand, Cantor Fitzgerald's Thomas Blakey raised the target from $159 to $173. This mixed sentiment suggests that while some analysts are cautious, others see potential.

Insider and Institutional Activity:

Insider activity is a bit concerning. The Chief Commercial Officer sold 962 shares, and there have been no purchases in the last six months. However, institutional investors are split, with 223 increasing their positions and 216 decreasing. This could indicate a shift in sentiment or a period of consolidation.

Conclusion:

Given the mixed analyst sentiment, high valuation, and recent underperformance, it might be wise to hold CVLT stock until the upcoming earnings report. If the company meets or exceeds the expected EPS of $0.91, it could boost investor confidence and drive the price up. However, the high Forward P/E ratio compared to the industry average might mean the stock is overvalued, which could be a risk if growth slows down.

What is price prediction 2025 for CVLT Stock?

The price prediction for CVLT stock in 2025 is $185 per share. This forecast is based on positive revenue growth of 16.06% and strong net margins of 6.67%, with analysts raising their targets to an average of $183.8, suggesting upside potential.

What is surpport and resistant level for CVLT Stock?

The S1 support level for CVLT Stock is $147.69 ,The R1 resistant level for CVLT Stock is $165.41.

What is the current price of CVLT Stock?

As of the end of day on 2025-03-19, the price of CVLT Stock was $160.11.

What is the target price of CVLT Stock?

The target price for CVLT Stock according to analyst rating is 187.50, with the highest price target at 200.00 and the lowest at 173.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on CVLT Stock overall.

What is the market cap of Commvault Systems Inc?

The market cap of CVLT is $7.1B.

Is Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) overvalued?

Analysis and Insights

To determine whether CVLT is overvalued, we analyze its valuation metrics, financial performance, and market sentiment.

Valuation Metrics:

CVLT's valuation appears stretched compared to industry averages. The stock trades at a Forward P/E ratio of 43.04, significantly higher than the industry average of 25.74. Additionally, the EV/EBITDA ratio of 68.38 and P/S ratio of 7.72 further indicate a premium valuation relative to peers.

Financial Performance:

While CVLT has shown revenue growth, with total revenue increasing to $262.63 million in the latest quarter, net income has been inconsistent. The net margin remains low at 4.2%, suggesting operational efficiency challenges despite strong gross margins of 80.45%.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings:

Analysts are mixed on CVLT. Recent upgrades cite strong market growth and improving execution, while others maintain a cautious stance due to high valuation. The stock has seen a 14.89% decline over the past month, underperforming its sector and the S&P 500.

Insider and Institutional Activity:

Insider sentiment is bearish, with the Chief Commercial Officer selling shares and no purchases reported in six months. Institutionally, 223 firms increased holdings, while 216 decreased theirs, indicating mixed sentiment.

Conclusion:

CVLT appears overvalued given its high valuation metrics, inconsistent net income, and mixed market sentiment. Investors should exercise caution and consider waiting for a correction or improved profitability before investing.

What is Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT)'s business?

Commvault Systems, Inc. is a data management company. The Company provides a unified Data Management Platform that spans all the users' data regardless of where it lives (on-premises, hybrid, or multi-cloud) or how it is structured (legacy applications, databases, virtual machines (VMs), or containers). It offers solutions through all combinations of software subscriptions, integrated appliances, partner-managed, or Software as a Service (SaaS) via its Metallic portfolio. The Company's offerings are organized into four categories: Data Recovery, Data Compliance and Governance, Data Storage, and Data Security. Its Commvault Backup and Recovery (CBR) provides backup, verifiable recovery and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility, helping to ensure data availability, even across multiple clouds. Commvault Disaster Recovery (CDR) provides a replication and disaster recovery solution from a single extensible platform, which is managed through the Command Center.

What is price prediction 2030 for CVLT Stock?

Based on current trends and analyst expectations, the price prediction for CVLT stock by 2030 is estimated to range between $180 and $200. This forecast is supported by strong market growth outlook and positive analyst sentiment, with an average analyst target of $183.8 and a high estimate of $200.00.