Trump Signs Executive Order Blocking Claims on Venezuelan Oil Revenue
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Investment Caution: Following Trump's meeting with executives from over 20 U.S. energy companies, Exxon Mobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods stated that Venezuela is currently deemed 'uninvestable' without significant changes to its legal and commercial frameworks, highlighting deep industry skepticism about the investment climate there.
- Market Dynamics Impact: The executive order signed by Trump, based on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the 1976 National Emergencies Act, blocks creditors from making legal claims on Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts, a move that could influence global energy market investment decisions.
- Energy Stock Performance: Among large-cap energy stocks, Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Neste Oyj (NTOIY) received A+ EPS revision grades, indicating optimistic earnings expectations that may attract more investor interest in these companies.
- Renewable Energy Investment: Egypt has signed $1.8 billion in renewable energy deals to expand solar and storage capacity, signaling an accelerating trend in global energy transition that could create new growth opportunities for related companies.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 111.590
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 111.590
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Cash Flow Outlook: ConocoPhillips generated $7.3 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with expectations to increase by $1 billion annually from 2026 to 2028, and a further surge of $4 billion in 2029 when a major project in Alaska begins production, potentially doubling cash flow by the end of the decade.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: As a pure exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips' management anticipates significant stock buybacks and dividend increases if oil prices remain around $70 per barrel, despite current prices being near five-year lows.
- Acquisition and Market Performance: Following its acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024, ConocoPhillips reduced its share count by 9% and increased buybacks in response to higher commodity prices, demonstrating strong market adaptability and potential for shareholder returns.
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- Rising Oil Prices: Oil prices surged nearly 2% in U.S. trading amid fears that military action could disrupt oil supplies from Iran, reflecting market anxiety over energy security and potentially leading to increased costs for related industries, impacting the broader economy.
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ConocoPhillips' Strong Growth Potential Through 2030
- Global Oil Demand Growth: BP estimates that global oil demand will continue to grow through 2030, primarily due to relaxed emission reduction efforts, which will drive increased natural gas demand, especially in the context of soaring energy requirements for data centers.
- Strong Cash Flow Outlook: ConocoPhillips generated $7.3 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with expectations to increase by $1 billion annually from 2026 to 2028, and a further surge of $4 billion in 2029 when a major project in Alaska begins production, potentially doubling cash flow by the end of the decade.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: As a pure exploration and production company, ConocoPhillips' management anticipates significant stock buybacks and dividend increases if oil prices remain around $70 per barrel, despite current prices being near five-year lows.
- Acquisition and Market Performance: Following its acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024, ConocoPhillips reduced its share count by 9% and increased buybacks in response to higher commodity prices, demonstrating strong market adaptability and potential for shareholder returns.
See More
Trump Considers Limited Military Strikes Against Iran
- Military Action Consideration: Trump stated during a breakfast with governors that he is considering limited military strikes against Iran to pressure its nuclear program, with a decision expected in 10 to 15 days, potentially escalating tensions in the Middle East.
- Oil Price Stability: Following Trump's remarks, oil prices remained stable despite a more than 5% rally this week, reflecting market pricing in the risk of imminent U.S. military action, with WTI crude at $66.15 per barrel.
- Military Buildup: A significant U.S. military buildup is underway in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier stationed in the region and the USS Gerald Ford en route, which may further heighten tensions with Iran.
- Strait of Hormuz Significance: The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global oil trade, with over 14 million barrels per day passing through in 2025, accounting for a third of total worldwide seaborne oil exports, and any conflict could disrupt these crucial oil flows, impacting global markets.
See More
Oil Market Braces for Potential US-Iran Military Conflict
- Oil Price Surge: Oil prices have risen nearly 6% this week as the market prices in the risk of military action between the US and Iran, highlighting investor anxiety over potential disruptions to oil flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
- Strategic Significance: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, with over 14 million barrels passing through daily in 2025; any conflict could push prices above $100 per barrel, curbing demand and potentially triggering an economic downturn.
- Military Exercise Impact: Iran's Revolutionary Guard recently partially closed the Strait for military exercises, demonstrating its capability to shut down this crucial passage, which could lead insurers to refuse coverage for tankers, exacerbating market fears.
- US Response Strategy: The Trump administration may opt for limited military actions designed to avoid direct strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure; however, any conflict could prompt the market to reassess risks, especially as Iran may leverage economic instability ahead of the US midterm elections.
See More
Trump Warns Iran Over Nuclear Deal Negotiations
- Oil Price Fluctuations: International benchmark Brent crude futures traded 0.7% lower at $71.17 per barrel around 10:25 a.m. London time, despite reaching a six-month high in the previous session, indicating ongoing market concerns over supply risks in the Middle East.
- Escalating Military Tensions: Trump warned during the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington that “bad things” would happen if Iran fails to reach a deal, suggesting potential military action within the next 10 days, reflecting a hardline U.S. stance on the Iranian nuclear issue.
- Market Supply and Demand Analysis: Morgan Stanley's chief commodity strategist noted that while the global oil market is well supplied, concerns over Iran, significant stockpiling by China, and high freight rates are supporting prices, highlighting market sensitivity to future uncertainties.
- Geopolitical Impact: Barclays strategists observed that while equity markets have largely ignored geopolitical noise, rising U.S. military capabilities in the region have led to cautious market sentiment regarding potential short-lived conflicts with defined targets, as the administration prioritizes consumer affordability amid upcoming midterm elections.
See More
U.S. Treasury Yields Flat as Investors Await Key Economic Data
- Treasury Yield Movements: As of 4:10 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose less than 1 basis point to 4.076%, while the 30-year yield also increased to 4.705%, and the 2-year yield remained flat at 3.47%, indicating market caution ahead of key economic data.
- Economic Data Release: Investors are focusing on the upcoming personal consumption expenditures index and fourth-quarter GDP report, with the PCE expected to show a yearly inflation rise to 2.8% and core PCE forecasted to increase by 3%, which will directly influence market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
- GDP Growth Expectations: Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate that the real GDP for the fourth quarter will increase by 2.5%, providing crucial insights into the health of the economy, which could affect market sentiment and investment decisions.
- Political Risk Monitoring: The U.S. Supreme Court may release a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs on Friday or next week, while investors are also watching U.S.-Iran tensions, as President Trump indicated he would decide on potential military action within the next 10 days, which could have potential market implications.
See More
U.S. Markets Decline Amid Rising Tensions with Iran
- Market Volatility: U.S. markets experienced volatility on Thursday due to escalating tensions with Iran, with the S&P 500 down 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.31%, indicating investor concerns over geopolitical risks.
- Rising Oil Prices: Oil prices surged nearly 2% in U.S. trading amid fears that military action could disrupt oil supplies from Iran, reflecting market anxiety over energy security and potentially leading to increased costs for related industries, impacting the broader economy.
- Blue Owl Capital Liquidity Tightening: Blue Owl Capital's sale of $1.4 billion in loan assets resulted in a nearly 6% drop in its stock, raising alarms about the stability of the private credit market, which could undermine investor confidence and exacerbate market volatility.
- Japan's Inflation Data: Japan's headline inflation rate fell to 1.5% in January, the lowest since March 2022, with core inflation easing to 2%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and subsequently affect global market liquidity.
See More
