Should You Buy ConocoPhillips (COP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
101.390
1 Day change
1.52%
52 Week Range
106.200
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
COP is **not a good buy right now** for a **Beginner, long-term** investor who is **impatient** about entry timing. The chart is constructive, but the stock is **near resistance (~101)** with **RSI ~69 (near overbought)**, while Wall Street sentiment has **turned more cautious via multiple downgrades/target cuts** and recent quarter profitability trends are **down YoY**. If you already own COP, it’s reasonable to **hold** for dividend + long-term projects; if you’re looking to initiate a new long-term position today, this setup is **not compelling enough to buy immediately**.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Technical Analysis
Price: 100.93 (+1.11% regular session).
- **Trend**: Bullish structure with **SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200**, indicating an established uptrend.
- **Momentum**: **MACD histogram +0.133 and expanding** (bullish momentum).
- **RSI (6)**: **68.65**, approaching overbought; upside may be **near-term capped** without a pullback/consolidation.
- **Key levels**: Pivot **98.444** (important near-term support). Resistance **R1 101.095** (price is essentially at this level) and **R2 102.733**. Support **S1 95.793**.
- **Pattern-based forward stats** (similar candlesticks): next **week +0.39%** expected, next **month +4.1%** expected, but with meaningful short-term noise.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
- **Open Interest Put/Call (0.87)**: Slightly **bullish positioning** (more call OI than puts).
- **Volume Put/Call (1.83)**: **Bearish/defensive near-term flow** (puts traded far more than calls), suggesting hedging or short-term caution.
- **Implied vs Historical Vol**: 30d IV **~30.99** vs HV **~28.35**; IV is moderately elevated. **IV percentile ~68.7** implies options pricing is relatively rich versus its recent range.
Overall: positioning is mildly constructive, but **today’s flow leans cautious**, aligning with “not an urgent buy today.”
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
- **Shareholder returns**: News highlights **~3.3% dividend yield** and a multi-year pattern of dividend increases.
- **Projects/portfolio**: Commentary points to strong cash flow support and longer-run plans to **lower breakeven** (reported expectation to get below ~$30 by 2029).
- **Event-driven**: **Libya $20B development agreement** (with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips) could support longer-term production/cash-flow visibility.
- **Upcoming catalyst**: **Q4 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market)** can reset expectations quickly.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- **Macro oil setup**: Multiple analysts cite **oversupplied oil markets** and softer demand growth as a headwind; that typically pressures E&P cash flows.
- **Valuation/near-term run-up**: BofA’s downgrade frames recent strength as potentially **short-lived**, driven by geopolitics rather than durable fundamentals.
- **Congress activity**: More selling than buying in the past 90 days suggests influential-trader caution.
- **Technical positioning**: Price is **at/near resistance (~101.1)** with **RSI near overbought**, increasing odds of a near-term stall or pullback.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: **2025/Q3**
- **Revenue**: **$15.03B**, **+15.26% YoY** (top-line growth).
- **Net Income**: **$1.72B**, **-16.18% YoY** (earnings decline).
- **EPS**: **1.38**, **-21.59% YoY**.
- **Gross Margin**: **24.12%**, **-13.64% YoY**.
Read-through: The company grew revenue, but **profitability and margins weakened**, which is consistent with a more challenging commodity pricing/cost environment and supports a more conservative “hold, not buy now” stance ahead of earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (Jan 2026): **more cautious overall**.
- **Downgrades**: JPMorgan to **Neutral** (PT **$98**); BofA to **Underperform** (PT **$102**).
- **Target cuts/adjustments**: Morgan Stanley cut PT to **$108** (kept Overweight); Piper cut PT to **$109** (kept Overweight); Bernstein cut PT to **$98** (kept Outperform).
- **Offsetting positive**: Susquehanna **raised** PT to **$115** (Positive) despite lowering oil assumptions.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- **Pros**: Strong asset base, shareholder returns/dividend, longer-term project runway; several firms remain Buy/Overweight with PTs above current price.
- **Cons**: Near-term oil oversupply risk, valuation concerns after recent strength, and mixed earnings quality (revenue up but profits down). Net: **mixed-to-cautious**, which does not support an immediate long-term entry for an impatient beginner.
Politicians / influential trading (Congress, last 90 days): **10 trades total** with **4 buys vs 6 sells** (median buy **$3.3M**, median sell **$1.6M**) → overall **cautious tilt**.
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COP is 113.39 USD with a low forecast of 98 USD and a high forecast of 132 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COP is 113.39 USD with a low forecast of 98 USD and a high forecast of 132 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 99.870
Low
98
Averages
113.39
High
132
Current: 99.870
Low
98
Averages
113.39
High
132
Susquehanna
Positive
maintain
$110 -> $115
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$110 -> $115
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $115 from $110 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The oil market remains oversupplied following the unwinding of OPEC's voluntary production cuts, which will put downward pressure on pricing when paired with soft demand growth globally, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna dropped its 2026 West Texas Intermediate price assumption to $60 per barrel from $65. It remains bullish on long-term demand story for natural gas as well as growing power demand from data centers and electrification.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$117 -> $108
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$117 -> $108
2026-01-23
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $108 from $117 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
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