COP Valuation

ConocoPhillips

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97.020

+2.07(2.180%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

COP Relative Valuation

COP's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, COP is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

ConocoPhillips (COP) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 1.99 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of -57.62. The fair price of ConocoPhillips (COP) is between 88.41 to 113.01 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

88.41-113.01

Current Price：94.95

Fair

16.32

Trailing

Forward

5.60

EV/EBITDA

ConocoPhillips. (COP) has a current EV/EBITDA of 5.60. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 4.96. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 3.12, Undervalued between 3.12 and 4.04, Fairly Valued between 5.88 and 4.04, Overvalued between 5.88 and 6.80, and Strongly Overvalued above 6.80. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 5.60 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

10.15

EV/EBIT

ConocoPhillips. (COP) has a current EV/EBIT of 10.15. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 9.94. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -9.99, Undervalued between -9.99 and -0.02, Fairly Valued between 19.91 and -0.02, Overvalued between 19.91 and 29.88, and Strongly Overvalued above 29.88. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 10.15 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

1.99

ConocoPhillips. (COP) has a current PS of 1.99. The 5-year average PS is 1.97. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 1.33, Undervalued between 1.33 and 1.65, Fairly Valued between 2.29 and 1.65, Overvalued between 2.29 and 2.62, and Strongly Overvalued above 2.62. The current Forward PS of 1.99 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

6.17

P/OCF

ConocoPhillips. (COP) has a current P/OCF of 6.17. The 5-year average P/OCF is 5.58. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 3.61, Undervalued between 3.61 and 4.59, Fairly Valued between 6.56 and 4.59, Overvalued between 6.56 and 7.55, and Strongly Overvalued above 7.55. The current Forward P/OCF of 6.17 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

12.21

P/FCF

ConocoPhillips. (COP) has a current P/FCF of 12.21. The 5-year average P/FCF is 11.79. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 1.05, Undervalued between 1.05 and 6.42, Fairly Valued between 17.16 and 6.42, Overvalued between 17.16 and 22.54, and Strongly Overvalued above 22.54. The current Forward P/FCF of 12.21 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

ConocoPhillips (COP) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.84. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 2.61 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -29.52% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 2.34, the current P/B ratio is about -21.45% higher. ConocoPhillips (COP) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 7.24%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 9.13%, the current FCF yield is approximately -20.78% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 7.66% , the current FCF yield is about -5.56% lower.

1.87

P/B

Median3y

2.61

Median5y

2.34

7.24

FCF Yield

Median3y

9.13

Median5y

7.66

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for COP's competitors is 2.14, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. ConocoPhillips Corp (COP) exhibits a P/S ratio of 1.99, which is -7.36% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 19.27%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Vista Energy SAB de CV

Woodside Energy Group Ltd

2.58

32.62B

FANG.O

Diamondback Energy Inc

Antero Resources Corp

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of COP decreased by 12.75% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Revenue Growth from 13.85B to 16.52B.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -6.35%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of COP in the past 1 year is driven by Revenue Growth. Which is more sustainable.

19.27%

13.85B → 16.52B

Revenue Growth

-6.35%

18.42 → 17.25

Margin Expansion

-25.67%

16.43 → 12.21

P/E Change

-12.75%