The Mortgage Market Reclaims Its Momentum
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 22 2025
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Mortgage Market Activity: The podcast discusses a significant surge in mortgage refinancing and new loan activity due to a drop in average mortgage rates to 6.49%, with refinancing activity up 34% year-over-year, indicating a potential thaw in the housing market.
Oracle's Earnings Report: Oracle's stock saw a dramatic increase of 40% following a strong earnings report, highlighted by a 359% growth in remaining performance obligations, suggesting robust future demand, although concerns about the costs associated with infrastructure growth were also raised.
ETF Milestone: The podcast notes that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed the number of individual stocks listed on exchanges, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards lower-cost investment options, with discussions on the implications of this trend.
Investment Insights: Contributors share their stock picks influenced by current market conditions, with mentions of Rocket Companies and Upstart as potential beneficiaries of the housing market recovery, and discussions on ETFs like the Defiance Quantum ETF and Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF as attractive investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.910
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 27.910
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart's Five-Year Investment Returns Disappoint
- Stock Price Plunge: Since late March 2021, Upstart's stock has plummeted by 79%, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, highlighting extreme investment risk and volatility.
- Cyclical Financial Performance: Upstart's financial results are highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions; while revenue grew 64% year-over-year in 2025, the sustainability of its profitability remains a significant question mark.
- Significant Interest Rate Impact: The ultra-low interest rate environment during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted Upstart's growth, but rising rates have posed severe challenges, leading to a decline in investor confidence.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite appearing cheap, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, and it was notably excluded from the analyst team's list of 10 best stocks, indicating that investors should proceed with caution.
See More
Upstart's Stock Plummets 79%, Investors Disappointed
- Stock Price Drop: Upstart's stock has plummeted 79% since March 2021, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, indicating significant losses and increased market volatility for investors.
- Financial Performance Volatility: While benefiting from the ultra-low interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a 64% year-over-year growth, the company has struggled with rising rates, resulting in highly unstable financial performance and questions about sustainable profitability.
- Market Condition Dependence: Upstart's business is highly cyclical and dependent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to inconsistent revenue growth and leaving the sustainability of future profitability in question.
- High-Risk Investment: Despite appearing undervalued, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, necessitating careful evaluation of potential market risks and returns by investors.
See More
Pomerantz LLP Investigates Upstart for Securities Fraud
- Investigation Launched: Pomerantz LLP is investigating Upstart Holdings, Inc. for potential securities fraud or unlawful business practices, aiming to protect investor rights and seek legal remedies.
- Performance Decline: On November 5, 2025, Upstart disclosed that it missed third-quarter expectations primarily due to its Model 22 underwriting system, which reduced borrower approval and conversion rates, directly impacting the company's financial performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing performance news, Upstart's stock price fell sharply, causing significant losses for investors and reflecting market concerns about the company's future outlook.
- Legal Context: Pomerantz LLP is a renowned securities class action law firm with over 85 years of history, dedicated to fighting for the rights of victims of securities fraud and corporate misconduct, having recovered millions in damages for class members historically.
See More
Fintech Stocks Face Challenges and Opportunities
- SoFi Stock Volatility: SoFi Technologies has seen a year-to-date decline of approximately 33%, currently trading around $17.50 per share; however, its growth metrics remain robust, with projected revenue growth of 30% and EBITDA growth of 34% by 2026, indicating a healthy underlying business.
- Upstart's Bank Charter: Upstart's stock is down 37% year-to-date, but its application for a national bank charter could be a game-changer, allowing it to offer deposits and loans, thus creating a new revenue stream and enhancing its competitive position in the fintech space.
- Market Environment Impact: The fintech sector has dropped about 11% on average, prompting investors to seek quality stocks at lower valuations, particularly within the financial sector, which has been hit hardest, making it a focal point for investment opportunities.
- Analyst Optimism: Despite challenges, analysts have set a median price target of $27 for SoFi, suggesting a potential upside of 53%, while Upstart's target price of $45 indicates a possible 62% gain, reflecting market confidence in the long-term prospects of both stocks.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Fintech Stocks Amid Market Decline
- Market Downturn Opportunity: The financial sector has dropped nearly 10% this year, with fintech stocks like SoFi and Upstart down approximately 33% and 36%, respectively, presenting investors with opportunities to buy at lower valuations that could double in value over the next few years.
- SoFi Financial Status: Despite Muddy Waters Research's allegations of financial issues, SoFi officials countered that the report is inaccurate, and the company anticipates a 30% revenue growth and 34% EBITDA growth by 2026, showcasing its profitability and growth potential.
- Upstart Bank Charter Application: Upstart has filed for a national bank charter, which, if approved, would allow it to operate as a full-service bank, significantly increasing its revenue streams, although its stock has fallen about 37% due to high valuation concerns and economic uncertainties.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts have set price targets of $27 for SoFi and $45 for Upstart, indicating potential upside of 53% and 62%, respectively, suggesting that these stocks could rebound significantly when the market stabilizes.
See More
Fintech Stocks Decline and Investment Opportunities
- Stock Price Decline: Both Upstart and Affirm have seen their stock prices drop approximately 36% year-to-date, primarily due to high valuations and market concerns over credit quality, despite significant business growth reported in the latest quarter.
- Strong Business Growth: Upstart reported an 86% increase in loan originations and a 64% rise in revenue, achieving a net income of $18.6 million for the third consecutive quarter, while Affirm's gross merchandise volume grew by 36%, with revenue up 30% and net income rising 61% year-over-year.
- Bank Charter Applications: Both companies have applied for bank charters, with Upstart aiming to become a full-service national bank and Affirm seeking an industrial loan charter, which would enable them to provide loans directly and reduce funding costs, thereby enhancing profitability.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite the current challenging economic conditions, both companies are expected to see stock price recoveries once their charters are approved and interest rates decline, particularly Upstart, which may leverage its asset-light AI banking model to gain a competitive edge in the market.
See More
Upstart's Five-Year Investment Returns Disappoint
- Stock Price Plunge: Since late March 2021, Upstart's stock has plummeted by 79%, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, highlighting extreme investment risk and volatility.
- Cyclical Financial Performance: Upstart's financial results are highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions; while revenue grew 64% year-over-year in 2025, the sustainability of its profitability remains a significant question mark.
- Significant Interest Rate Impact: The ultra-low interest rate environment during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted Upstart's growth, but rising rates have posed severe challenges, leading to a decline in investor confidence.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite appearing cheap, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, and it was notably excluded from the analyst team's list of 10 best stocks, indicating that investors should proceed with caution.
See More
Upstart's Stock Plummets 79%, Investors Disappointed
- Stock Price Drop: Upstart's stock has plummeted 79% since March 2021, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, indicating significant losses and increased market volatility for investors.
- Financial Performance Volatility: While benefiting from the ultra-low interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a 64% year-over-year growth, the company has struggled with rising rates, resulting in highly unstable financial performance and questions about sustainable profitability.
- Market Condition Dependence: Upstart's business is highly cyclical and dependent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to inconsistent revenue growth and leaving the sustainability of future profitability in question.
- High-Risk Investment: Despite appearing undervalued, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, necessitating careful evaluation of potential market risks and returns by investors.
See More
Pomerantz LLP Investigates Upstart for Securities Fraud
- Investigation Launched: Pomerantz LLP is investigating Upstart Holdings, Inc. for potential securities fraud or unlawful business practices, aiming to protect investor rights and seek legal remedies.
- Performance Decline: On November 5, 2025, Upstart disclosed that it missed third-quarter expectations primarily due to its Model 22 underwriting system, which reduced borrower approval and conversion rates, directly impacting the company's financial performance.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing performance news, Upstart's stock price fell sharply, causing significant losses for investors and reflecting market concerns about the company's future outlook.
- Legal Context: Pomerantz LLP is a renowned securities class action law firm with over 85 years of history, dedicated to fighting for the rights of victims of securities fraud and corporate misconduct, having recovered millions in damages for class members historically.
See More
Fintech Stocks Face Challenges and Opportunities
- SoFi Stock Volatility: SoFi Technologies has seen a year-to-date decline of approximately 33%, currently trading around $17.50 per share; however, its growth metrics remain robust, with projected revenue growth of 30% and EBITDA growth of 34% by 2026, indicating a healthy underlying business.
- Upstart's Bank Charter: Upstart's stock is down 37% year-to-date, but its application for a national bank charter could be a game-changer, allowing it to offer deposits and loans, thus creating a new revenue stream and enhancing its competitive position in the fintech space.
- Market Environment Impact: The fintech sector has dropped about 11% on average, prompting investors to seek quality stocks at lower valuations, particularly within the financial sector, which has been hit hardest, making it a focal point for investment opportunities.
- Analyst Optimism: Despite challenges, analysts have set a median price target of $27 for SoFi, suggesting a potential upside of 53%, while Upstart's target price of $45 indicates a possible 62% gain, reflecting market confidence in the long-term prospects of both stocks.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Fintech Stocks Amid Market Decline
- Market Downturn Opportunity: The financial sector has dropped nearly 10% this year, with fintech stocks like SoFi and Upstart down approximately 33% and 36%, respectively, presenting investors with opportunities to buy at lower valuations that could double in value over the next few years.
- SoFi Financial Status: Despite Muddy Waters Research's allegations of financial issues, SoFi officials countered that the report is inaccurate, and the company anticipates a 30% revenue growth and 34% EBITDA growth by 2026, showcasing its profitability and growth potential.
- Upstart Bank Charter Application: Upstart has filed for a national bank charter, which, if approved, would allow it to operate as a full-service bank, significantly increasing its revenue streams, although its stock has fallen about 37% due to high valuation concerns and economic uncertainties.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts have set price targets of $27 for SoFi and $45 for Upstart, indicating potential upside of 53% and 62%, respectively, suggesting that these stocks could rebound significantly when the market stabilizes.
See More
Fintech Stocks Decline and Investment Opportunities
- Stock Price Decline: Both Upstart and Affirm have seen their stock prices drop approximately 36% year-to-date, primarily due to high valuations and market concerns over credit quality, despite significant business growth reported in the latest quarter.
- Strong Business Growth: Upstart reported an 86% increase in loan originations and a 64% rise in revenue, achieving a net income of $18.6 million for the third consecutive quarter, while Affirm's gross merchandise volume grew by 36%, with revenue up 30% and net income rising 61% year-over-year.
- Bank Charter Applications: Both companies have applied for bank charters, with Upstart aiming to become a full-service national bank and Affirm seeking an industrial loan charter, which would enable them to provide loans directly and reduce funding costs, thereby enhancing profitability.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite the current challenging economic conditions, both companies are expected to see stock price recoveries once their charters are approved and interest rates decline, particularly Upstart, which may leverage its asset-light AI banking model to gain a competitive edge in the market.
See More
