Stocks Fluctuate Near All-Time Highs, S&P 500 Slightly Declines
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 26 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
The post-Christmas session saw stocks fluctuate near all-time highs and the indexes close little changed following a day of thin trading. While the S&P 500 saw a very small daily drop, it still closed with its best week in a month.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with this recap from The Fly.1. STOCK NEWS:Nvidialicensingand hiring top executives, including its CEO, in deal reported to be worth $20BTargetfacing pressure from activist investor Toms Capital,Biohavenannounced on Christmas Eve that its Phase 2 proof-of-concept study evaluating BHV-7000 for the treatment of major depressive disorderWALL STREET CALLS:Inhibikase Therapeuticswith a Buy at H.C. WainwrightCarter Bankshareswith a Buy at Freedom CapitalMDU Resourceswith a Hold at Freedom CapitalWalmartwith an Outperform at CICC3. AROUND THE WEB:Following the Trump administration's approval of a weapons sale to Taiwan, the Chinese government imposed sanctions on 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 of their executives, with targets including Northrop Grumman (NOC), Boeing'sdefense unit,A federal judge denied Masimo'srequest to block Apple Watchimports as part of its lawsuit over an earlier import ban related to patents covering blood-oxygen sensors,Hyattis developing collaborations with Chinese state-owned companies for joint-venture brands amid a slowdown in the region and an effort to expand outside Greater China to double properties in Asia,JPMorgan Chasein recent months has frozen accounts used by at least two fast-growing stablecoin startups, highlighting the risk that Cryptocurrency transactions pose for banks, which are required to know the people they do business with and the source of their cash,4. MOVERS:Coupanggained afterthe company identified the former employee responsible for the recent data leakNikerose after UBS said its recentfor the companyArcadia Biosciencesfell afterand resumption of its process of evaluating strategic alternativesMakers of wound-care products, including Organogenesis, declined after regional Medicare contractorsand tissue repair productsINDEXES:The Dow fell 0.04%, or 20.19, to 48,710.97, the Nasdaq slipped 0.09%, or 20.21, to 23,593.10, and the S&P 500 declined 0.03%, or 2.11, to 6,929.94.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 187.980
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 187.980
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Outlook Shows Strong Potential
- Earnings Potential Analysis: Oppenheimer anticipates Nvidia's Q4 sales could see a typical upside of $2B to $3B, primarily driven by the GB300 Ultra, indicating strong performance in the AI sector.
- Growing Market Demand: Expected capital expenditures from cloud service providers are projected to reach $650B in 2026, up from over $400B in 2025, reflecting sustained demand for Nvidia's products.
- New Product Outlook: The average selling price for Vera Rubin is expected to be 40% to 50% higher than that of GB300, potentially adding around $8B in revenue for Nvidia, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Market Size Expansion: With China now included, Nvidia's total addressable market is estimated to be around $4T, showcasing its dominant position in the global AI platform and future growth potential.
See More
Nvidia's Stock Pullback Presents Investment Opportunities
- Weak Market Performance: Since August 2025, Nvidia's stock has only risen by 5%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's 10% gain, indicating market caution regarding its future growth despite optimistic prospects in the AI sector.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta expect to spend at least $500 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, positioning Nvidia as a primary beneficiary; if it maintains its market share, it could see substantial revenue growth, with global data center capital expenditures projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030.
- China Market Resumption: Nvidia has regained the ability to export GPUs to China, re-entering the world's second-largest AI market; although the stock has not significantly reacted to this positive development, it provides new momentum for future growth.
- Attractive Valuation: With a forward P/E ratio of less than 24, Nvidia's stock appears cheap compared to the S&P 500's 21.9, suggesting that investors should consider buying during this pullback, especially with upcoming spending increases on the horizon.
See More
Macro Economic Data Influences Market Volatility
- Macro Economic Data Release: Today's session features significant releases including Q4 Advance Annualized GDP, Personal Consumption, and Core PCE Price Index, which are critical for the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook and may lead to increased market volatility.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Markets are likely to react first through the bond complex, with equities adjusting rapidly based on yield direction, especially with potential headline risk from a Supreme Court decision on President Trump's tariffs around 10:00 AM ET.
- Key Stock Dynamics: SPY is currently trading around 684.25, and if this level holds, it may quickly move towards 686.00 and 688.25; conversely, a breakdown below 684.25 could test 682.50 and 680.75, indicating the market's sensitivity to macro data.
- Tech Stock Performance: Tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA show mixed performance ahead of macro data releases, with AAPL needing to stabilize above 260.00 to rebound towards 262.25 and 264.00, while MSFT must reclaim 400.00 to regain upward momentum.
See More
China's Tech Rise Threatens US Dominance in AI
- Intensifying Tech Competition: Analyst Rory Green highlighted that China could dominate the global tech market in the next 5 to 10 years, breaking the U.S.'s perceived monopoly in technology and AI, which poses a significant threat to America's market position.
- AI Model Development Efficiency: Chinese AI companies are surpassing U.S. counterparts in model development efficiency, achieving strong performance at lower compute costs, which may weaken enterprises' reliance on expensive U.S. services and alter market dynamics.
- Energy Advantage: China has added more power capacity in the past four years than the total in the U.S., providing greater energy support for the expansion of AI infrastructure, thereby promoting the diffusion and application of AI technologies.
- Government Support: The Chinese government is actively backing local AI companies through multi-billion-dollar national investment funds and energy subsidies, creating a policy environment that could accelerate China's rise in the global AI competition.
See More
CoreWeave Stock Declines Ahead of Uncertain Earnings Report
- Stock Decline: CoreWeave Inc. shares fell 2.92% to $94.30 in premarket trading on Friday, indicating a bearish sentiment ahead of the upcoming earnings report, which may dampen investor confidence.
- Insider Selling: CEO Michael Intrator disclosed the sale of 32,455 shares of Class A common stock worth approximately $7.72 million on February 11, raising concerns about internal signals and potentially affecting shareholder expectations for future performance.
- Technical Analysis: The stock is currently trading 3.3% below its 100-day simple moving average and 12.2% below its 200-day SMA, although it remains above its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating some short-term resilience but an overall weak trend.
- Earnings Expectations: CoreWeave is set to report earnings on February 26, with a consensus estimate of a loss of 65 cents per share and revenue of $1.53 billion, while analysts have mixed views, maintaining a Buy rating with price targets ranging from $100 to $140.
See More
China's Tech Stack May Dominate Global AI Landscape
- Global Tech Landscape Shift: An analyst predicts that in the next five to ten years, most of the world's population could be using a Chinese tech stack, indicating that China's rapid advancements in AI may threaten U.S. market dominance.
- Computational Efficiency Advantage: China's focus on developing compute-efficient models, particularly achieving strong performance at lower costs, positions it favorably in the AI race, especially given its recent energy supply boom.
- Rise of Open-Source Models: By releasing competitive open-source models, Chinese labs are eroding the commercial moat that U.S. closed-model vendors have relied on, making it more appealing for enterprises to opt for cost-effective Chinese solutions.
- Multipolar AI Ecosystem: As competition shifts from model performance to value realization, the future global AI landscape may become multipolar, with different countries competing across various tech layers, particularly in the Global South where cost considerations dominate technology choices.
See More
Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Outlook Shows Strong Potential
- Earnings Potential Analysis: Oppenheimer anticipates Nvidia's Q4 sales could see a typical upside of $2B to $3B, primarily driven by the GB300 Ultra, indicating strong performance in the AI sector.
- Growing Market Demand: Expected capital expenditures from cloud service providers are projected to reach $650B in 2026, up from over $400B in 2025, reflecting sustained demand for Nvidia's products.
- New Product Outlook: The average selling price for Vera Rubin is expected to be 40% to 50% higher than that of GB300, potentially adding around $8B in revenue for Nvidia, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Market Size Expansion: With China now included, Nvidia's total addressable market is estimated to be around $4T, showcasing its dominant position in the global AI platform and future growth potential.
See More
Nvidia's Stock Pullback Presents Investment Opportunities
- Weak Market Performance: Since August 2025, Nvidia's stock has only risen by 5%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's 10% gain, indicating market caution regarding its future growth despite optimistic prospects in the AI sector.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta expect to spend at least $500 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, positioning Nvidia as a primary beneficiary; if it maintains its market share, it could see substantial revenue growth, with global data center capital expenditures projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030.
- China Market Resumption: Nvidia has regained the ability to export GPUs to China, re-entering the world's second-largest AI market; although the stock has not significantly reacted to this positive development, it provides new momentum for future growth.
- Attractive Valuation: With a forward P/E ratio of less than 24, Nvidia's stock appears cheap compared to the S&P 500's 21.9, suggesting that investors should consider buying during this pullback, especially with upcoming spending increases on the horizon.
See More
Macro Economic Data Influences Market Volatility
- Macro Economic Data Release: Today's session features significant releases including Q4 Advance Annualized GDP, Personal Consumption, and Core PCE Price Index, which are critical for the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook and may lead to increased market volatility.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Markets are likely to react first through the bond complex, with equities adjusting rapidly based on yield direction, especially with potential headline risk from a Supreme Court decision on President Trump's tariffs around 10:00 AM ET.
- Key Stock Dynamics: SPY is currently trading around 684.25, and if this level holds, it may quickly move towards 686.00 and 688.25; conversely, a breakdown below 684.25 could test 682.50 and 680.75, indicating the market's sensitivity to macro data.
- Tech Stock Performance: Tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA show mixed performance ahead of macro data releases, with AAPL needing to stabilize above 260.00 to rebound towards 262.25 and 264.00, while MSFT must reclaim 400.00 to regain upward momentum.
See More
China's Tech Rise Threatens US Dominance in AI
- Intensifying Tech Competition: Analyst Rory Green highlighted that China could dominate the global tech market in the next 5 to 10 years, breaking the U.S.'s perceived monopoly in technology and AI, which poses a significant threat to America's market position.
- AI Model Development Efficiency: Chinese AI companies are surpassing U.S. counterparts in model development efficiency, achieving strong performance at lower compute costs, which may weaken enterprises' reliance on expensive U.S. services and alter market dynamics.
- Energy Advantage: China has added more power capacity in the past four years than the total in the U.S., providing greater energy support for the expansion of AI infrastructure, thereby promoting the diffusion and application of AI technologies.
- Government Support: The Chinese government is actively backing local AI companies through multi-billion-dollar national investment funds and energy subsidies, creating a policy environment that could accelerate China's rise in the global AI competition.
See More
CoreWeave Stock Declines Ahead of Uncertain Earnings Report
- Stock Decline: CoreWeave Inc. shares fell 2.92% to $94.30 in premarket trading on Friday, indicating a bearish sentiment ahead of the upcoming earnings report, which may dampen investor confidence.
- Insider Selling: CEO Michael Intrator disclosed the sale of 32,455 shares of Class A common stock worth approximately $7.72 million on February 11, raising concerns about internal signals and potentially affecting shareholder expectations for future performance.
- Technical Analysis: The stock is currently trading 3.3% below its 100-day simple moving average and 12.2% below its 200-day SMA, although it remains above its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating some short-term resilience but an overall weak trend.
- Earnings Expectations: CoreWeave is set to report earnings on February 26, with a consensus estimate of a loss of 65 cents per share and revenue of $1.53 billion, while analysts have mixed views, maintaining a Buy rating with price targets ranging from $100 to $140.
See More
China's Tech Stack May Dominate Global AI Landscape
- Global Tech Landscape Shift: An analyst predicts that in the next five to ten years, most of the world's population could be using a Chinese tech stack, indicating that China's rapid advancements in AI may threaten U.S. market dominance.
- Computational Efficiency Advantage: China's focus on developing compute-efficient models, particularly achieving strong performance at lower costs, positions it favorably in the AI race, especially given its recent energy supply boom.
- Rise of Open-Source Models: By releasing competitive open-source models, Chinese labs are eroding the commercial moat that U.S. closed-model vendors have relied on, making it more appealing for enterprises to opt for cost-effective Chinese solutions.
- Multipolar AI Ecosystem: As competition shifts from model performance to value realization, the future global AI landscape may become multipolar, with different countries competing across various tech layers, particularly in the Global South where cost considerations dominate technology choices.
See More
